Actuarial Studies

Projecting the long-term financial status of the Canada Pension Plan, Old Age Security, Canada Student Loans and federal sector workplace pension and insurance plans requires the Office of the Chief Actuary (OCA) to assess historical, present and future trends in the areas of demography and economics. Given these concerns and the mandate of the OCA, our Office is continuously involved in preparing various experience studies and research covering a wide range of social security, demographic and economic issues that may affect the financial status of these plans.

Some of these studies also serve to support policymakers in developing and analyzing various policy options in the context of plan reforms. The information presented in these studies could benefit private sector organizations that evaluate social security or private pension plan schemes.

To keep the general public informed, the OCA is committed to prompt disclosure of information through our periodic statutory actuarial reports and by making available the results of our special studies on the many aspects of these programs.

Actuarial Study Title
No. 18

Canada Pension Plan Actuarial Adjustment Factors: Actuarial Study No 18 (PDF, 405 KB)

The Office of the Chief Actuary confirms that the Canada Pension Plan legislated actuarial adjustment factors are appropriate.

No. 17

Old Age Security Program Mortality Experience: Actuarial Study No. 17 (PDF, 2.1 MB)

In 2013, beneficiaries with low income live on average about 2 and half years less than those with higher income. The differential in life expectancies at age 65 by level of income has shown little variability over the last 15 years.

No. 16

Canada Pension Plan Retirement, Survivor and Disability Beneficiaries Mortality Study: Actuarial Study No. 16 (PDF, 1.6 MB)

Over the last two decades, life expectancy at age 65 of CPP retirement beneficiaries increased by 2.5 years, reaching 20.5 years in 2013.

No. 15

Pension Plan for the Royal Canadian Mounted Police: Actuarial Study No. 15 (PDF, 951 KB)

Regular Members of the Pension Plan for the Royal Canadian Mounted Police are living longer than the general Canadian population, mainly ( because of lower mortality rates before age 80.

No. 14

Pension Plan for the Public Service of Canada Mortality Study: Actuarial Study No. 14 (PDF, 1.79 MB)

At age 65, federal public servants are expected to live approximately one year longer than the general Canadian population. At the same time, they are expected to live as long as members of Canadian private sector pension plans, and shorter lives than members of Canadian public sector pension plans.

No. 13

Assessing the Sustainability of the Canada Pension Plan through Actuarial Balance Sheets

The inclusion of future contributions and benefits with respect to both current and future contributors in the assessment of the Canada Pension Plan financial status through actuarial balance sheets shows that the Plan is able to meet its financial obligations and is sustainable over the long term. 

No. 12

Mortality Projections for Social Security Programs in Canada

Canadians have made significant gains in longevity over the past century. Future gains in longevity are projected to continue, with many Canadians expected to live beyond age 90 on average in the future. However, living to 100 will continue to be a challenge for most.

No. 11

Old Age Security Program Mortality Experience (PDF, 1.13 MB)

Over the last decade, life expectancy at age 65 has experienced the largest ever increase since the Old Age Security Program’s inception with life expectancy at age 65 increasing by about two years to reach 20 years in 2010.

No. 10

Measuring the Financial Sustainability of the CPP (PDF, 709 KB)

If the CPP’s financial sustainability is to be measured based on its actuarial balance sheet, it should be done so on an open group basis that reflects the partially funded nature of the Plan, that is, its reliance on both future contributions and invested assets as means of financing its future expenditures.

No. 09

Experience Study of Disability Beneficiaries - ARCHIVED (PDF, 1.92 MB)

It is generally observed that the mortality rates of CPP disability beneficiaries are on average five to six times higher than mortality rates of the general population.

No. 08

Technical Aspects of the Financing of the CPP - ARCHIVED (PDF, 377 KB)

The study concludes that the inclusion of future contributions and benefits from both current and future contributors in the assessment of the Plan's funded status shows that the Plan is able to meet its financial obligations and sustainable over the 75-year projection period.

No. 07

CPP Mortality Study - ARCHIVED (PDF, 953 KB)

More Canadians are expected to receive pension benefits from the Canada Pension Plan (CPP) for a longer period of time. The study’s findings also underscore a correlation between the level of CPP income and a beneficiary’s life expectancy; the higher the CPP retirement pension, the higher the beneficiary’s life expectancy.

No. 06

Optimal Funding of the Canada Pension Plan - ARCHIVED (PDF, 427 KB)

The actuarial study concludes that the current partial-funding model of the Canada Pension Plan (CPP) is robust and appropriate for the purpose of contributing to the long-term financial sustainability of the Plan.

No. 05

Old Age Security Program Mortality Experience - ARCHIVED (PDF, 487 KB)

No. 05

Addendum to Actuarial Study No.5 - Old Age Security Program Mortality Experience - ARCHIVED (PDF, 275 KB)

No. 04

National Population Projections - ARCHIVED (PDF, 1.11 MB)

No. 03

Mortality Study - ARCHIVED (PDF, 3.13 MB)

No. 02

Actuarial Adjustment Factors Study - ARCHIVED (PDF, 210 KB)

No. 01

Experience Study of Disability Beneficiaries - ARCHIVED (PDF, 232 KB)