QPP Hosts Interdisciplinary Seminar

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Demographic, Economic and Financial Outlook 2003-2030

Seminar Organized by the Régie des rentes du Québec, in collaboration with the Chaire en actuariat de l'Université Laval and the Club des actuaires de Québec

PROGRAM SUMMARY

September 25, afternoon

DEMOGRAPHIC DIMENSION

1:00 to 1:30
Registration

1:30
Life expectancy: international comparisons (PDF, 822 kB)
François Boulanger, Actuary
Régie des rentes du Québec

Mr. Boulanger will briefly present the latest North American projections on increased life expectancy and the results of a recent survey on this topic among social security organizations in a number of industrialized countries.

1:50
Changes in mortality in Quebec over the XXth Century (PDF, 942 kB)
Robert Bourbeau, Director and Full Professor
Demography, Université de Montréal

Mr. Bourbeau is conducting a number of studies on general and cause-specific mortality and on human life expectancy in developed countries. He will review changes in mortality in Quebec over the XXth Century, focusing on mortality at advanced ages (65 years and over). He will address some of the problems associated with the quality of data on population and death at very advanced ages, and suggest some approaches for dealing with upcoming changes in mortality in Quebec.

Break

3:20
Downward trends in mortality among retirees (PDF, 598 kB)
Louis Adam, Professor and Program Director
École d'actuariat, Université Laval

Mr. Adam will present the results of a study on mortality among pension benefit recipients in Canada. This study compares mortality levels by source of data (Canada or Quebec), income, gender and age. Mortality trends are analyzed for the 1975-2000 period.

4:30
Impact of genetics on mortality (PDF, 223 kB)
Louis Dallaire, Geneticist, Associate Professor,
Faculté de médecine, Université de Montréal

Mr. Dallaire will briefly overview the latest scientific research in the field of genetics and their impact on future mortality.

5:30
Cocktails

September 26

8:30 a.m. to 9:00 a.m.
Registration

ECONOMIC DIMENSION

9:00
Impact of ageing on economic growth (PDF, 407 kB)
Yvan Guillemette, Policy Analyst
C.D. Howe Institute

Mr. Guillemette will address the determinants of Quebec's past and future economic growth and the impact of ageing on labour productivity. He will cover the predictable transformations in the economy following the retirement of the first baby-boom generation. He will also address the phenomena that could lead to changes in labour productivity, uncertainties about their long-term nature, and their relationship to wage increases.

Break

10:40
Wages and productivity in an ageing Quebec (PDF, 145 kB)
Pierre Fortin, Professor of Economics
Université du Québec à Montréal

Mr. Fortin will address the projected changes in the labour market over the next three decades, particularly in terms of Quebec's position relative to its neighbouring economies (Ontario, United States). This presentation will focus on productivity and future changes in wages. He will cover issues such as changes in labour force demand and supply in connection with ageing and female participation in the labour force.

12:00
Lunch

FINANCIAL DIMENSION

1:30
Analysis of potential returns (PDF, 1.27 MB)
Reynald N. Harpin, Director General, Investment Management - Pension Funds
Alcan Inc.

Mr. Harpin will review historical returns and the potential returns of the different asset categories, focusing on their basic determinants.

Break

3:15
Analysis of risk premiums associated with asset distribution activities and determinant (PDF, 401 kB)
Richard Guay, Executive Vice-President, Risk Management and Depositors's Accounts Management
Caisse de dépôt et placement du Québec

Mr. Guay will address return and risk forecasts for assets and obligations and risk premium estimation. He will also briefly cover the issue of the potential impact of structural changes, such as population ageing and market globalization on long-term returns.

4:30
End