InfoPensions – Issue 24 – May 2021

Estimated solvency ratio results

OSFI regularly estimates the solvency ratio for federally regulated pension plans with defined benefit provisions. The Estimated Solvency Ratio (ESR) results help identify any solvency issues that could affect the security of pension benefits promised to members and beneficiaries before a plan files their actuarial report. The ESR results also help identify broader trends.

The ESR results are calculated using the most recent actuarial, financial and membership information filed with OSFI for each plan before the analysis date. Assets are projected based on either the rate of return provided on the Solvency Information Return or an assumed rate of return for the plan. Solvency liabilities are projected using relevant commuted value and annuity proxy rates from the Canadian Institute of Actuaries. Expected contributions, benefit payments, and expenses are taken into account and an ESR based on the estimated adjusted market value of the fund and estimated liabilities is then calculated for each plan.

The median ESR for all 342 plans (down from 348 last year) increased to 0.97 as at December 31, 2020, up from 0.95 at the end of 2019. In contrast, the liability-weighted average ESR for all plans decreased slightly to 1.00 as at December 31, 2020, from 1.01 at the end of 2019. The graph below shows the current and previous ESRs and median ESRs dating back to December 2011.

Solvency Position of Pension Plans as at December 31 - Graph Description

	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020
Median ESR	0.88	0.88	0.74	0.77	0.97	0.90	0.90	0.91	0.96	0.94	0.95	0.97
Estimated Solvency Ratio (ESR)	0.90	0.93	0.81	0.83	0.98	0.94	0.95	0.97	1.02	0.98	1.01	1.00
ESR in excess of Median	0.02	0.05	0.07	0.06	0.01	0.04	0.05	0.06	0.06	0.04	0.05	0.03

The most recent ESR results show a reduction in the percentage of plans that were underfunded (61% in 2020 versus 66% in 2019) while the number of plans that were significantly underfunded (ESRs below 0.80) did not change (15%). The bar graph below illustrates the distribution of the ESR results as at December 31 of each year since 2011. It shows the percentage of plans with ESRs below 0.80, between 0.80 and 0.90, between 0.90 and 1.00, and over 1.00 in each year.

Distribution in % of the Estimated Solvency Ratio (ESR) of Pension Plans as at December 31 - Graph Description

	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020
ESR < 0.80	68%	61%	7%	14%	19%	16%	13%	16%	15%	15%
ESR 0.80-0.90	14%	21%	17%	34%	30%	30%	11%	16%	18%	16%
ESR 0.90-1.00	8%	8%	37%	31%	30%	34%	39%	42%	33%	30%
ESR > 1.00	10%	10%	39%	21%	21%	20%	37%	26%	34%	39%
Average ESR	81%	83%	98%	94%	95%	97%	102%	98%	101%	100%

Actuarial reports – Items warranting review

Actuarial reports submitted to OSFI are generally reviewed by each plan’s Relationship Manager in PPPD, who may refer the report to the division’s actuarial team for a more detailed review.

The Instruction Guide for the Preparation of Actuarial Reports for Defined Benefit Pension Plans sets out the reporting requirements for actuarial reports filed with OSFI. Based on the Canadian Institute of Actuaries (CIA) Standards of Practice, it is expected that plan actuaries provide sufficient details in their actuarial report to enable another actuary to assess the reasonableness of the data, assumptions, and methods used.

OSFI would like to share with plan actuaries its expectations relating to the following items that warranted a more detailed review in some actuarial reports:

Solvency valuation – Provision for termination expenses

In accordance with subsection 2(1) of the Pension Benefits Standards Regulations, 1985, solvency assets used in the determination of the solvency ratio for a pension plan with defined benefit provisions are equal to the market value of assets plus the face value of letters of credit minus the estimated expenses of winding-up the plan. OSFI expects the assumed termination expenses (also referred to as wind-up expenses) to be sufficient to provide for expenses that may reasonably be expected to be paid from the pension fund between the valuation date and the wind-up of the plan, i.e. the date when all plan benefits are settled and assets are distributed.

A comparison of the provision for termination expenses in recently filed termination reports to the assumed termination expenses in prior funding valuation reports for those plans shows that assumed termination expenses in the solvency valuation for an ongoing pension plan are often underestimated, sometimes by a significant amount.

While size can be a good indicator to assess the reasonableness of the provision for termination expenses, plan specific characteristics such as membership profile and the complexity of the plan’s provisions should also be considered. The determination of the provision should be consistent with the postulated termination scenario.

The termination expense provision would usually include

• actuarial, administrative, legal, and other consulting expenses incurred in terminating the plan up to its wind-up, including costs associated with locating individuals;
• expenses associated with benefit settlement, and, if applicable, fees associated with a replacement administrator or designated actuary;
• regulatory fees;
• custodial and auditing related expenses;
• investment expenses, including management and transaction fees relating to the liquidation of assets; and
• expenses associated with revising the investment policy.

In addition, the termination expense provision should allow time to

• prepare and file the termination report with OSFI;
• have the termination report reviewed by OSFI and approved by the Superintendent; and
• effectively pay the benefits.

Going concern valuation – Application of OSFI’s maximum discount rate

In accordance with the Instruction Guide for the Preparation of Actuarial Reports for Defined Benefit Pension Plans, it is OSFI’s position that the best estimate rate of return on assets used in the determination of the going concern discount rate should not exceed a certain level to ensure the assumption used by actuaries in their actuarial reports remains reasonable. OSFI monitors financial market conditions and future expected returns and is currently of the view that generally the discount rate for a plan with a fixed-income allocation of no more than 50% should not exceed 5.75%, before implicit margins for adverse deviations and expenses.

The actuary should ignore the return and expenses related to active investment management for determining whether the discount rate used in the actuarial report satisfies this requirement. However, the actuary should adjust the maximum rate for a plan using an asset mix expected to generate a lower return, and may adjust the maximum rate for a plan using an asset mix expected to generate a higher return, than that obtained by using a 50% fixed-income allocation.

The following examples illustrate how to apply OSFI’s maximum in the determination of the going concern discount rate under three scenarios:

• Scenario 1: the actuary has applied the unadjusted maximum of 5.75%
• Scenario 2: the actuary has adjusted the maximum to 6.00% based on the plan’s asset mix
• Scenario 3: the actuary has applied the unadjusted maximum of 5.75%, and can justify an assumption for value-added return of 0.10% due to active management