Life Expectancy at Ages 65, 75 and 85
For both male and female OAS beneficiaries, life expectancy has increased over the past 15 years. For males aged 65, 75 and 85, life expectancy has increased from 17.0, 10.3 and 5.5 years in 2003 to 19.2, 12.0 and 6.3 years in 2018, respectively. Similarly, for female OAS beneficiaries aged 65, 75 and 85, life expectancy has increased from 20.4, 12.9 and 6.9 years in 2003 to 22.0, 14.0 and 7.6 years in 2018, respectively. However, in the past few years, life expectancies for both sexes have been relatively stable. Since 2016, decreases in annual life expectancies at ages 65, 75 and 85 have even been observed in certain instances. The next section analyses changes in life expectancy per 5-year sub-period over the past 15 years.
Life Expectancy of OAS Beneficiaries (without future mortality improvements)
Chart Description
Succession of three line charts showing the evolution of life expectancies of OAS beneficiaries without future mortality improvements by gender between 2003 and 2018 at ages 65, 75 and 85. There is one chart for each age. Y axis represents the life expectancy in number of years. X axis represents the year.
Life expectancy at age 65 for male OAS beneficiaries was 17.0 years in 2003 and it increased to 19.2 years in 2018. Life expectancy at age 65 for female OAS beneficiaries was 20.4 years in 2003 and it increased to 22.0 years in 2018.
Life expectancy at age 75 for male OAS beneficiaries was 10.3 years in 2003 and it increased to 12.0 years in 2018. Life expectancy at age 75 for female OAS beneficiaries was 12.9 years in 2003 and it increased to 14.0 years in 2018.
Life expectancy at age 85 for male OAS beneficiaries was 5.5 years in 2003 and it increased to 6.3 years in 2018. Life expectancy at age 85 for female OAS beneficiaries was 6.9 years in 2003 and it increased to 7.6 years in 2018.
Change in Life Expectancy at Ages 65, 75 and 85
Although increases in life expectancy were relatively stable during the 5-year periods 2004-2008 and 2009-2013, there has been a recent slowing trend in the pace of these increases for both sexes. The graphs below show that the annual average rates of increase in life expectancies for the 5-year period 2014-2018 for male OAS beneficiaries aged 65, 75 and 85 were 0.8 months, 0.6 months and 0.3 months respectively, compared to 2.3 months, 1.7 months and 0.7 months over the 5-year period 2004-2008. Furthermore, the graphs below show that the annual average rates of increase in life expectancies for the 5-year period 2014-2018 for female OAS beneficiaries aged 65, 75 and 85 were 0.5 months, 0.4 months and 0.1 months respectively, compared to 1.6 months, 1.3 months and 0.8 months over the 5-year period 2004-2008.
Average Annual Increase in Life Expectancy of OAS Beneficiaries (in months per year)
Chart Description
Succession of three bar charts showing average annual increases in life expectancy of OAS beneficiaries by gender during the 5-year periods 2004 to 2008, 2009 to 2013 and 2014 to 2018 at ages 65, 75 and 85. There is one chart for each age. Y axis represents average annual increase in life expectancy in number of months. X axis represents the 5-year sub period being analysed.
Average annual increases in life expectancy at age 65 for male OAS beneficiaries were 2.3 months per year for the 5-year period 2004 to 2008, 2.2 months per year for the 5-year period 2009 to 2013 and 0.8 months per year for the 5-year period 2014 to 2018. Average annual increases in life expectancy at age 65 for female OAS beneficiaries were 1.6 months per year for the 5-year period 2004 to 2008, 1.6 months per year for the 5-year period 2009 to 2013 and 0.5 months per year for the 5-year period 2014 to 2018.
Average annual increases in life expectancy at age 75 for male OAS beneficiaries were 1.7 months per year for the 5-year period 2004 to 2008, 1.7 months per year for the 5-year period 2009 to 2013 and 0.6 months per year for the 5-year period 2014 to 2018. Average annual increases in life expectancy at age 75 for female OAS beneficiaries were 1.3 months per year for the 5-year period 2004 to 2008, 1.2 months per year for the 5-year period 2009 to 2013 and 0.4 months per year for the 5-year period 2014 to 2018.
Average annual increases in life expectancy at age 85 for male OAS beneficiaries were 0.7 months per year for the 5-year period 2004 to 2008, 0.9 months per year for the 5-year period 2009 to 2013 and 0.3 months per year for the 5-year period 2014 to 2018. Average annual increases in life expectancy at age 85 for female OAS beneficiaries were 0.8 months per year for the 5-year period 2004 to 2008, 0.8 months per year for the 5-year period 2009 to 2013 and 0.1 months per year for the 5-year period 2014 to 2018.
Mortality Improvement Rates
An alternate way of observing trends in life expectancy is through changes in mortality rates over time which are measured by mortality improvement rates (MIRs). The “improvement in mortality” indicates that mortality rates have decreased over time, which in turn has led to increased longevity. Consistent with what was observed in the previous section on change in life expectancy, there is a decreasing trend in the average annual MIRs for all age groups over age 65. This trend is especially pronounced for male OAS beneficiaries in the 65-69 age group: average MIRs were 2.2% from 2003 to 2008, 2.5% from 2008 to 2013, and 0.0% from 2013 to 2018. Similarly, the average annual MIRs for female OAS beneficiaries aged 65-69 were 1.5% from 2003 to 2008, 1.7% from 2008 to 2013 and 0.3% from 2013 to 2018.
Average Annual Mortality Improvement Rates for OAS Beneficiaries - Males
| Age | 2003-2008 | 2008-2013 | 2013-2018 |
|---|
|
65-69 | 2.2% | 2.5% | 0.0% |
|
70-74 | 3.2% | 2.2% | 1.5% |
|
75-79 | 3.1% | 2.7% | 1.1% |
|
80-84 | 2.3% | 2.6% | 1.3% |
|
85-89 | 1.9% | 2.0% | 0.8% |
|
90+ | 0.6% | 1.3% | 0.2% |
Average Annual Mortality Improvement Rates for OAS Beneficiaries - Females
| Age | 2003-2008 | 2008-2013 | 2013-2018 |
|---|
|
65-69 | 1.5% | 1.7% | 0.3% |
|
70-74 | 1.7% | 1.8% | 0.9% |
|
75-79 | 2.1% | 2.0% | 0.6% |
|
80-84 | 2.0% | 1.6% | 1.0% |
|
85-89 | 1.6% | 1.8% | 0.6% |
|
90+ | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
Number of Monthly Deaths
The following graph shows the monthly number of deaths of OAS beneficiaries (age 65 and over) from January 1999 to May 2019. There are seasonal variations in monthly deaths with the least deaths occuring in the summer months and the most deaths occuring during the winter months. In particular, the maximum number of deaths occurred in December or January every year except for 2008 when it was in March. Overall, due to the ageing of the Canadian population, the number of deaths has increased from 1999 to 2018.
Number of Deaths per Month for OAS Beneficiaries Age 65 and over – January 1999 to May 2019
Chart Description
Bar chart showing number of deaths per month for OAS beneficiaries aged 65 and over from January 1999 to May 2019. Y axis represents the number of deaths. X axis represents the year.
Overall, the average number of monthly deaths increased from 14,277 in 1999 to 19,202 in 2018, which is the most recent complete year available. There are seasonal variations in monthly deaths with the least deaths occuring in the summer months and the most deaths occuring during the winter months.
Data and Methodology
All calculations are based on the OAS program beneficiary database that was provided to the Office of the Chief Actuary by Service Canada which is the administrator of the OAS program. The historical average annual mortality improvement rates are derived using the best-fit log-linear method. (see chapter 4 of the SOA RP-2000 Mortality Tables Report, found here:
https://www.soa.org/experience-studies/2000-2004/research-rp-2000-mortality-tables).