How will this change affect borrowers?
It should be noted that if mortgage rates rise, fewer will be affected, if they fall then more will be affected.
The qualifying rate used for most of the recent borrowers (89%) was the Bank of Canada benchmark rate and as such would increase to the new qualifying rate of 5.25%. 5% of borrowers had a qualifying rate above the Bank of Canada benchmark rate but below 5.25% so would be less impacted.
In the last half of 2020, only 6% of borrowers had a qualifying rate above the 5.25% - meaning their minimum qualifying rate of contract +200 basis points was above this proposed floor. For those borrowers who are affected by the proposed floor, options would include saving for a larger down payment, which would lower the mortgage amount or reassessing their house price range.
Based on our analysis of approved Q3 and Q4 borrowers, the change in the qualifying rate would result in a reduction in the mortgage loan amount between 2% and 4%, holding the amortization steady. Also, while most borrowers will have a new qualifying rate that is higher than the rate they would have previously qualified under, we estimate that
up to 10% of borrowers would have exceeded individual bank’s Total Debt Service ratio thresholds. Note that bank’s risk appetite and their specific bank underwriting policies may vary.