Actuarial Report (30th) on the Canada Pension Plan

Document Properties

  • Type of Publication: Actuarial Report

The Honourable William F. Morneau, P.C., M.P.
Minister of Finance
House of Commons
Ottawa, Canada
K1A 0A6

Dear Minister:

In accordance with section 115 of the Canada Pension Plan, which provides that an actuarial report shall be prepared every three years for purposes of the financial state review by the Minister of Finance and the ministers of the Crown from the provinces, I am pleased to submit the Thirtieth Actuarial Report on the Canada Pension Plan, prepared as at 31 December 2018.

Yours sincerely,

Assia Billig, FCIA, FSA, PhD
Chief Actuary

LIST OF TABLES

1. Executive Summary

1.1 Main Findings

Main Findings 30th CPP Actuarial Report
BASE CPP ADDITIONAL CPP

Contributions

  • Legislated contribution rate of 9.9% for year 2019 and thereafter.

  • Legislated first and second additional contribution rates of 2.0% for 2023 and thereafter and 8.0% for 2024 and thereafter, respectively.

  • The number of CPP contributors expected to grow from 14.5 million in 2019 to 18.4 million in 2050.

  • Contributions expected to increase from $52 billion in 2019 to $165 billion in 2050.

  • Contributions expected to increase from $1.6 billion in 2019 to $43 billion in 2050.

  • Contributions projected to be higher than expenditures up to the year 2021 inclusive.

  • Contributions projected to be higher than expenditures up to the year 2057 inclusive.

Expenditures

  • The number of retirement beneficiaries expected to increase from 5.6 million in 2019 to 9.9 million in 2050.

  • Total expenditures projected to grow from $49 billion in 2019 to $188 billion in 2050.

  • The number of retirement beneficiaries expected to increase from 0.2 million in 2019 to 8.9 million in 2050.

  • Total expenditures projected to grow from $0.1 billion in 2019 to $28 billion in 2050.

Assets

  • Total assets projected to grow from $372 billion at the end of 2018 to $688 billion by 2030 and $1.7 trillion by 2050.

  • In 2050, investment income is projected to represent 37% of revenues.

  • Total assets projected to grow from $0 billion at the end of 2018 to $191 billion by 2030 and $1.3 trillion by 2050.

  • In 2050, investment income is projected to represent 61% of revenues.

Minimum Contribution Rates needed to sustain the CPP

  • The minimum contribution rate is 9.75% of contributory earnings for years 2022 to 2033 and 9.72% for years 2034 and thereafter.

  • The first additional minimum contribution rate as a percentage of first additional contributory earnings is 1.49% in 2022 and 1.98% for years 2023 and thereafter.

  • The second additional minimum contribution rate as a percentage of second additional contributory earnings is 7.92% for years 2024 and thereafter.

  • The respective legislated contribution rates are higher than the minimum contribution rates needed to sustain the Plan, and thus are sufficient to finance both the base and additional CPP over the long term.

1.2 Introduction

This is the 30th Actuarial Report on the Canada Pension Plan since the inception of the Canada Pension Plan (CPP or the Plan) in 1966. The valuation date is 31 December 2018. This report has been prepared in compliance with the timing and information requirements of the Canada Pension Plan. Section 113.1 of the Canada Pension Plan provides that the Minister of Finance and ministers of the Crown from the provinces shall review the financial state of the CPP once every three years and may consequently make recommendations to change the benefits or contribution rates, or both. Section 113.1 identifies the factors the ministers consider in their review, including information to be provided by the Chief Actuary.

As of 1 January 2019, the CPP has two components: the base and additional Plans. The CPP consisted only of the base Plan (or base CPP) prior to 2019, and this component continues. The additional Plan (or additional CPP) is the new enhancement to the CPP as of 2019. An important purpose of the report is to inform contributors and beneficiaries of the current and projected financial states of the base and additional CPP. The report provides information to evaluate the base and additional Plans’ financial sustainability over a long period, assuming that the legislation remains unchanged. Such information should facilitate a better understanding of the financial states of the base and additional Plans and the factors that influence costs, and thus contribute to an informed public discussion of issues related to the finances of the two components of the CPP.

The previous triennial report was the 27th Actuarial Report on the Canada Pension Plan as at 31 December 2015, which was tabled in the House of Commons on 27 September 2016.

The Canada Pension Plan was subject to a series of amendments since the 27th CPP Actuarial Report but prior to 31 December 2018 pursuant to the adoption of Bills C-26, C-74, and C-86. These Bills are described further in Appendix A of this report. The 28th CPP Actuarial Report was prepared to show the estimates for the Plan in respect of the introduction of the additional Plan (Bill C-26). The 29th CPP Actuarial Report was prepared to show the effect of Bill C-74 on the long-term financial states of the base and additional Plans. There was no supplemental actuarial report in respect of Bill C-86 since the cost impacts on the CPP were deemed to be small to negligible.

Under Bill C-97 – Budget Implementation Act, 2019, No. 1, the application for a CPP retirement pension is waived upon reaching age 70, effective 1 January 2020. Bill C-97 was introduced in 2019 and received Royal Assent on 21 June 2019. This amendment is considered to be a subsequent event for the purpose of this report, since it became known to the Chief Actuary after the valuation date but before the report date and was determined to have an effect on the financial state of the CPP.

In addition, amendments to the regulations regarding the calculation of the CPP contribution rates were proposed in 2018 to clarify the determination of full funding rates and introduce the calculation of the additional CPP minimum contribution rates. These regulations as well as proposed regulations regarding the sustainability of the additional CPP, namely the Calculation of Contribution Rates Regulations, 2018 and the Additional Canada Pension Plan Sustainability RegulationsFootnote 1 are awaiting formal consent by the provinces.

This 30th CPP Actuarial Report takes into account all the above listed amendments and proposed regulations as well as the subsequent event of the amendment under Bill C-97. Further, this CPP Actuarial Report takes into account the updated population estimates from Statistics Canada that became available in January 2019. This is also considered to be a subsequent event for the purpose of this report.

1.3 Independent Peer Review Process

As part of its policy of ensuring that it provides sound and relevant actuarial advice to Members of Parliament and to the Canadian population, as was done for previous reports, the Office of the Chief Actuary (OCA) has commissioned an external peer reviewFootnote 2 of this actuarial report on the CPP.

The external peer review is intended to ensure that the actuarial reports meet high professional standards, and are based on reasonable methods and assumptions. Over the years, peer review recommendations have been carefully considered and many of them implemented.

1.4 Scope of the Report

Section 2 presents a general overview of the methodology used in preparing the actuarial estimates included in this report, which are based on the best-estimate assumptions described in section 3. The results for the base Plan and additional Plan are presented separately in sections 4 and 5, respectively, and include for each component the projections of the revenues, expenditures, and assets over more than the next 75 years. Section 6 provides the reconciliation of the results for the base Plan with those of the 27th CPP Actuarial Report as well as the reconciliation of the results for the additional Plan with those of the 28th CPP Actuarial Report. Section 7 presents a general conclusion about the financial states of the base and additional Plans, and section 8 provides the actuarial opinion.

The various appendices provide a summary of the Plan provisions, a description of the data, assumptions and methodology employed, supplemental information on the financing of the CPP, detailed reconciliations of the results with previous reports, the uncertainty of results, and acknowledgements of data providers and staff who contributed to this report.

1.5 Uncertainty of Results

This actuarial report on the Canada Pension Plan presents projections of its revenues and expenditures for both of its components, the base and additional CPP, over a long period of time. Both the length of the projection period and the number of assumptions required ensure that actual future experience will not develop precisely in accordance with the best-estimate projections.

To measure the sensitivity of the long-term projected financial position of the base and additional Plans to future changes in the demographic, economic, and investment environments, a variety of sensitivity tests were performed. The tests and results are presented in detail in Appendix E of this report.

These tests show that the minimum contribution rate (MCR) of the base CPP as well as the first and second additional minimum contribution rates (FAMCR and SAMCR) of the additional Plan would deviate significantly compared to their best estimates, if other than best-estimate assumptions were realized.

Real rates of return on investments, the future evolution of mortality, and future economic growth are among the important factors that could result in the minimum contribution rates being higher than the respective legislated rates. The following table highlights some of the impacts of these factors on the MCR of the base CPP and the FAMCR and SAMCR of the additional Plan.

Highlights of Uncertainty of ResultsTable 1.5-1 footnote 1
Base CPP Additional CPP
Rate of Return
The 30th CPP Actuarial Report is based on an assumed nominal average 75-year rate of return of 5.95% for the base CPP and 5.38% for the additional CPP.
A decrease of 1% in the assumed nominal average annual 75-year rate of return would result in:
  • The MCR increasing to 10.62%, which is 9% higher than the MCR under the best-estimate assumptions.

  • the FAMCR increasing to 2.69% and the SAMCR increasing to 10.76%, which is 36% higher than the AMCRs under the best-estimate assumptions.

An increase of 1% in the assumed nominal average annual 75-year rate of return would result in:
  • The MCR decreasing to 8.82%, which is 9% lower than the MCR under the best-estimate assumptions.

  • the FAMCR decreasing to 1.49% and the SAMCR decreasing to 5.96%, which is 25% lower than the AMCRs under the best-estimate assumptions.

Given that the additional CPP relies more heavily on investment earnings as a source of revenues than the base CPP, the AMCRs are more sensitive to changes in the rate of return assumption than the MCR.
Rate of Return Intervaluation Experience
For the 30th CPP Actuarial Report, the assumed cumulative nominal rates of return over the inter-valuation period 2019-2021 are 16.3% for the base CPP and 8.1% for the additional CPP.
  • If the actual cumulative nominal rate of return over the inter-valuation period 2019-2021 is 6.3% (i.e. 10 percentage points lower than the best-estimate assumption), the MCR for the years 2025 to 2033, determined at the next actuarial valuation, would be the same as the legislated contribution rate of 9.9%.

  • As the additional Plan assets are relatively low over the inter-valulation period 2019-2021, it is very unlikely that short-term investment experience would cause the AMCRs to fall outside the “no action” ranges prescribed by the proposed Additional Canada Pension Plan Sustainability Regulations.

Mortality
The 30th CPP Actuarial Report is based on the assumption that mortality will continue to improve but at a slower pace than over the last few decades.
If mortality were to improve faster than assumed with life expectancies at age 65 for males and females being about 2.4 years higher by 2050 compared to the best estimates, this would result in:
  • the MCR increasing to 10.06%.

  • the FAMCR and SAMCR increasing to 2.15% and 8.60%, respectively.

If mortality is assumed to stay at the same level as in 2019, i.e. with no future improvements, this would result in:
  • the MCR decreasing to 9.03% (a difference of 0.69%)

  • the FAMCR and SAMCR decreasing respectively to 1.72% and 6.88% (differences of 0.26% / 1.04%)

These differences represent the annual costs of increasing longevity for the base and additional Plans.
Economic Growth
The 30th CPP Actuarial Report is based on the assumption of moderate and sustainable economic growth.
If lower economic growth is assumed with total employment earnings in 2035 being 13% lower compared to the best estimate, this would result in:
  • the MCR increasing to 10.67%.

  • the FAMCR and SAMCR decreasing respectively to 1.80% and 7.20%.

If higher economic growth is assumed with total employment earnings in 2035 being 15% higher compared to the best estimate, this would result in:
  • the MCR decreasing to 8.80%.

  • the FAMCR and SAMCR increasing respectively to 2.21% and 8.84%.

The impacts are in the opposite direction for the base and additional Plans due to the different financing approaches of the two components of the CPP. The base CPP relies more heavily on contributions as a source of revenues than the additional CPP.

Table 1.5-2 Footnotes

Footnote 1

Unless specified otherwise, the MCR quoted in the table is for years 2034 and thereafter, the FAMCR is for years 2023 and thereafter, and the SAMCR is for years 2024 and thereafter.

Return to footnote 1

1.6 Conclusion

The actuarial projections of the financial states of the base and additional Plans presented in this report reveal the following.

Base CPP

This report confirms that the legislated contribution rate of 9.9% is sufficient to finance the base CPP over the long term. Under the legislated contribution rate, contributions to the base Plan are projected to be higher than expenditures over the period 2019 to 2021, with a portion of investment income thereafter required to pay for expenditures. Total assets of the base Plan are expected to increase significantly over the next decade and then to continue increasing, but at a slower pace. Under the legislated contribution rate of 9.9%, base CPP assets are projected to accumulate to $688 billion by the end of 2030 and $1.7 trillion by 2050, while the ratio of assets to the following year’s expenditures is projected to remain relatively stable at a level of 7.6 over the period 2021 to 2031, then grow to 8.8 in 2050 and continue increasing over the projection period.

The MCR of the base CPP is 9.75% for years 2022 to 2033 and 9.72% for the year 2034 and thereafter, which is lower than the legislated contribution rate of 9.9%. Thus, despite the projected substantial increase in benefits paid as a result of an aging population, the legislated rate exceeds the MCR, and the base Plan is expected to be able to meet its obligations throughout the projection period.

Since the MCR of the base CPP is below the legislated contribution rate of 9.9%, the insufficient rates provisions in subsections 113.1(11.05) to 113.1(11.15) of the Canada Pension Plan do not apply. Therefore, in the absence of specific action by the federal and provincial governments, the legislated contribution rate will remain at 9.9% for the year 2019 and thereafter.

Additional CPP

This report confirms that the legislated first and second additional contribution rates of 2.0% for 2023 and thereafter and 8.0% for 2024 and thereafter, respectively, result in projected contributions and investment income that are sufficient to fully pay the projected expenditures of the additional CPP over the long term. Under the legislated additional contribution rates, contributions to the additional Plan are projected to be higher than expenditures up to the year 2057 inclusive, with a portion of investment income thereafter required to pay for expenditures. As such, total assets of the additional Plan are expected to increase rapidly over the first several decades. Under the legislated additional contribution rates, additional CPP assets are projected to grow to $191 billion by the end of 2030 and to $1.3 trillion by 2050, while the ratio of assets to the following year’s expenditures is projected to increase rapidly until 2025 and then decrease to a level of about 26 by 2080.

The FAMCR is 1.98% for the year 2023 and thereafter, and the SAMCR is 7.92% for the year 2024 and thereafter, which are lower than the respective legislated additional contribution rates.

In accordance with the Additional Canada Pension Plan Sustainability Regulations, the AMCRs are sufficiently close to the legislated additional contribution rates such that no immediate action is required to address the differences. Therefore, in the absence of specific action by the federal and provincial governments, the legislated additional contribution rates will remain at their scheduled values.

Base and Additional CPP

To measure the sensitivity of the financial projections of each of the base and additional Plans to future changes in the demographic, economic, and investment environments, a variety of sensitivity tests were performed. Analyses of different asset allocations, the impacts of varying investment experience, and sensitivity tests on key assumptions show that the minimum contribution rates of the base and additional CPP could deviate significantly from their best-estimate values if other than best-estimate assumptions were to be realized, as shown in Appendix E of this report.

The projected financial states of the base and additional Plans presented in this report are based on the assumed demographic, economic, and investment outlooks over the long term. Given the length of the projection period and the number of assumptions required, it is unlikely that the actual experience will develop precisely in accordance with the assumptions. Therefore, it remains important to assess the financial states of the two components on a regular basis by producing periodic actuarial valuation reports. For this purpose, as required by the Canada Pension Plan, the next such actuarial valuation will be as at 31 December 2021.

2. Methodology

As of 1 January 2019, the CPP has two components: the base and additional Plans. The base Plan was the CPP prior to 2019, and this component continues. The additional Plan is the new enhancement to the CPP as of 2019. When not qualified, the term CPP or the Plan used in this report refers to the entire CPP, that is, to both its components.

The actuarial examination of the CPP involves projections of the revenues and expenditures of both components over a long period of time, so that the future impact of historical and projected trends in demographic and economic factors can be properly assessed. The actuarial estimates in this report are based on the provisions of the Canada Pension Plan as at 31 December 2018,Footnote 3 data regarding the starting point for the projections, and best-estimate assumptions regarding future demographic, economic, and investment experience.

The revenues of the base and additional Plans include both contributions and investment income. The projection of contributions begins with a projection of the working-age population. This requires assumptions regarding demographic factors such as fertility, migration, and mortality. Total contributory earnings for each component of the Plan are derived by applying labour force participation and job creation rates to the projected population and by projecting future employment earnings. This requires assumptions about various factors such as wage increases, an earnings distribution, and unemployment rates. Contributions for each of the components of the CPP are obtained by applying the respective component’s contribution rate(s) to the respective contributory earnings. Investment income is projected on the basis of the existing portfolio of assets (for the base CPP), projected net cash flows (contributions less expenditures), and the assumptions regarding the future asset mix and rates of return on investments net of investment expenses. Since the assumptions regarding the future asset mix differ between the base and additional Plans, the resulting assumptions regarding investment income differ as well.

Expenditures for each component of the Plan consist of the benefits paid out and operating expenses. Newly emerging benefits are projected by applying assumptions regarding retirement, disability, and death to the populations eligible for benefits, together with the benefit provisions and the earnings histories of participants (actual and projected). The projection of total benefits, which includes the continuation of benefits already in pay at the valuation date, requires further assumptions. Operating expenses, excluding Canada Pension Plan Investment Board (CPPIB) operating expenses, are projected by considering the historical and projected relationship between expenses and total employment earnings, while CPPIB operating expenses are considered in the determination of the rates of return.

The assumptions and results presented in the following sections make it possible to measure the financial states of the base and additional CPP separately in each projection year and to calculate the minimum contribution rates. For the base Plan, the minimum contribution rate (MCR) is the sum of two types of rates. The first of these excludes the full funding provision for increased or new benefits, and is referred to as the “steady-state” contribution rate. The second type of rate that makes up the MCR is the full funding rate for increased or new benefits.

For the additional CPP, there are two additional minimum contribution rates (AMCRs), the first additional minimum contribution rate (FAMCR) and the second additional minimum contribution rate (SAMCR). The FAMCR is applicable to contributory earnings below the Year’s Maximum Pensionable Earnings (YMPE) and the SAMCR is applicable to earnings between the YMPE and the Year’s Additional Maximum Pensionable Earnings (YAMPE).

Details of the methodology used to determine the MCR and AMCRs are presented in Appendix C.

A wide variety of factors influence both the current and projected financial state of the components of the CPP. Accordingly, the results shown in this report differ from those shown in previous reports. Likewise, future actuarial examinations will reveal results that differ from the projections included in this report.

3. Best-Estimate Assumptions

3.1 Introduction

The information required by statute, which is presented in sections 4 and 5 of this report, necessitates making numerous assumptions regarding future demographic, economic, and investment trends. The projections included in this report cover a long period of time (over 75 years), and the assumptions are determined by examining historical long-term and short-term trends and applying judgment as to the extent these trends will continue in the future. These assumptions reflect the Chief Actuary’s best judgment and are referred to in this report as the best-estimate assumptions. The assumptions were chosen to be independently reasonable and appropriate in the aggregate, taking into account certain interrelationships between them.

The assumptions were developed taking into account two subsequent events, that is, events that became known to the Chief Actuary after the valuation date, but before the report date, that were deemed to have an effect on the financial states of the base or additional CPP as at the valuation date. The first subsequent event is the amendment to the Plan under Bill C-97 – Budget Implementation Act, 2019, No. 1, which received Royal Assent on 21 June 2019 (application for a CPP retirement pension is waived upon reaching age 70, effective 1 January 2020). This amendment is further described in Appendices A and B of this report. The second subsequent event is the use of updated population estimates (for years 2018 and prior) from Statistics Canada that became available in January 2019.

The Chief Actuary held a seminar in September 2018 on the long-term demographic, economic, and investment outlook for Canada to obtain opinions from a wide range of individuals with relevant expertise. Five experts in the fields of demographics, economics, investments, and foresight were invited to present their views. Among the participants at the seminar were representatives from the OCA, federal departments including Statistics Canada, Employment and Social Development Canada (ESDC), and the Department of Finance, representatives from provincial and territorial governments, as well as representatives from Retraite Québec, the CPPIB, and other organizations. Representatives of the OCA also attended a seminar on the demographic, economic and financial outlook for 2018-2068 held by Retraite Québec in November 2018. Various presentation materials from both seminars are available on OSFI’s Web site.

Table 1 presents a summary of the most important assumptions used in this report compared with those used in the previous triennial report. The assumptions are described in more detail in Appendix B of this report.

Table 1 Best-Estimate Assumptions
Canada 30th Report
(as at 31 December 2018)
27th ReportTable footnote 1
(as at 31 December 2015)
Total Fertility Rate 1.62 (2027+) 1.65 (2019+)
Mortality Statistics Canada Life Tables
(CLT 3-year average table:
2014 – 2016)
with assumed future improvements
Canadian Human Mortality Database
(CHMD 2011)
with assumed future improvements
Canadian Life Expectancy
at birth in 2019
at age 65 in 2019
Males
86.9 years
21.4 years
Females
89.9 years
23.9 years
Males
87.0 years
21.5 years
Females
89.9 years
23.9 years
Net Migration Rate 0.62% of population (for 2021+) 0.62% of population (for 2016+)
Participation Rate (age group 18-69) 79.2% (2035) 79.1%Table footnote 2 (2035)
Employment Rate (age group 18-69) 74.4% (2035) 74.4%Table footnote 2 (2035)
Unemployment Rate (ages 15+) 6.2% (2030+) 6.2% (2025+)
Rate of Increase in Prices 2.0% (2019+) 2.0% (2017+)
Real Wage Increase 1.0% (2025+) 1.1% (2025+)
Real Rate of Return (average 2019-2093) Base CPP Assets 4.0% 4.0%Table footnote 3
Additional CPP Assets 3.4% 3.6%Table footnote 4
Retirement Rates for Cohort at Age 60 Males 27.0% (2021+) Males 34.0% (2016+)
Females 29.5% (2021+) Females 38.0% (2016+)
CPP Disability Incidence Rates (per 1,000 eligible) Males 2.95 (2019+) Males 3.17 (2020+)Table footnote 5
Females 3.65 (2019+) Females 3.72 (2020+)Table footnote 5

Table 1 Footnotes

Table footnote 1

The 27th CPP Actuarial Report as at 31 December 2015 was the previous triennial report. The 28th and 29th CPP Actuarial Reports are supplemental reports which use the same assumptions and methods as the 27th CPP Actuarial Report, adjusted as necessary to reflect the amendments to the Plan in respect of Part 1 of Bill C-26 and Division 19 of Part 6 of Bill C-74 .

Return to Table footnote 1

Table footnote 2

The assumed labour force participation and employment rates of the 27th CPP Actuarial Report for the age group 18-69. These differ from the assumed rates for the age group 15-69 shown in Table 1 of the 27th CPP Actuarial Report.

Return to Table footnote 2

Table footnote 3

The expected 75-year average real rate of return over the period 2016-2090 on the base CPP assets was determined to be 3.9% under the 27th CPP Actuarial Report. Under that report, the expected 75-year average real rate of return over the period 2019-2093 is 4.0%.

Return to Table footnote 3

Table footnote 4

The expected 75-year (2019-2093) average real rate of return on the additional CPP assets was determined under the 28th and 29th CPP Actuarial Reports.

Return to Table footnote 4

Table footnote 5

The ultimate disability incidence rates assumption of the 27th CPP Actuarial Report has been adjusted based on the 2018 eligible population in order to compare with the assumption for this 30th CPP Actuarial Report on the same basis.

Return to Table footnote 5

3.2 Demographic Assumptions

The population projections start with the Canada and Québec populations on 1 July 2018, to which are applied fertility, migration, and mortality assumptions. The relevant population for the Canada Pension Plan is the population of Canada less that of Québec and is obtained by subtracting the projected results for Québec from those for Canada. The population projections are essential in determining the future number of CPP contributors and beneficiaries.

3.2.1 Fertility

The first cause of the aging of the Canadian population is the decline in the total fertility rate that occurred during the last 50 years. The total fertility rate in Canada decreased rapidly from a level of about 4.0 children per woman in the late 1950s to 1.6 by the mid-1980s. The total fertility rate rose slightly in the early 1990s, but then declined to a level of 1.5 by the late 1990s. Canada is one of many industrialized countries that saw their fertility rates increase starting in the 2000s. By 2008, the total fertility rate for Canada reached 1.68. However, in some industrialized countries, including Canada, the total fertility rate has decreased since 2008, which could be attributable to the most recent economic downturn experienced. As of 2017, the total fertility rate for Canada stood at 1.55.Footnote 4

Similar to Canada, the total fertility rate in Québec fell from a high of about 4.0 children per woman in the 1950s; however, the Québec rate fell to a greater degree, reaching 1.4 by the mid-1980s. The Québec rate then recovered somewhat in the early 1990s to over 1.6 and subsequently declined to below 1.5 by the late 1990s. There was a significant increase in the Québec rate in the 2000s, with the rate reaching 1.74 in 2008. However, similar to Canada’s fertility rate, the fertility rate for Québec has been decreasing in recent years and stood at 1.60Footnote 4 in 2017.

The overall decrease in the total fertility rate over the last 50 years occurred as a result of changes in a variety of social, medical, and economic factors. Although there have been periods of growth in the total fertility rates in recent decades, it is unlikely that the rates will return to historical levels in the absence of significant societal changes.

The assumed age-specific fertility rates lead to an assumed total fertility rate for Canada that will increase from its 2017 level of 1.55 children per woman to an ultimate level of 1.62 in 2027. The assumed age-specific fertility rates for Québec lead to a total fertility rate for the province that will increase from its 2017 level of 1.60 to an ultimate level of 1.65 in 2027.

3.2.2 Mortality

Another element that has contributed to the aging of the population is the significant reduction in the age-specific mortality rates. This can be measured by the increase in life expectancy at age 65, which directly affects how long retirement benefits will be paid to beneficiaries. Male life expectancy (without future mortality improvements, i.e. reductions in mortality) at age 65 increased by 42% between 1966 and 2015, rising from 13.6 to 19.3 years. For women, life expectancy at age 65 (without future improvements) increased by 31%, from 16.9 to 22.1 years over the same period. Although the overall gains in life expectancy at age 65 since 1966 are similar for males and females (between 5 and 6 years), about 65% of the increase occurred after 1991 for males, while for females, only about 45% of the increase occurred in that period.

Mortality improvements are expected to continue in the future, but at a slower pace than most recently observed over the 15-year period ending in 2015. Further, it is assumed that ultimately, mortality improvement rates for males will decrease to the same level as for females. The analysis of the Canadian experience over the period 1925 to 2015, including the recent slowdown trends observed in mortality improvement rates for Old Age Security (OAS) beneficiariesFootnote 5, was combined with an analysis of the possible drivers of future mortality improvements.

The 15-year average mortality improvement rates by age and sex for the period ending in 2015 are the starting point for the projected annual mortality improvement rates from 2016 onward. For ages 65 and over, the annual mortality improvement rates for 2016 to 2017 were estimated using the trends derived from the administrative data on OAS beneficiaries, representing 98% of the general population.

Starting from 2015 (2017 for ages 65 and over), the rates are assumed to gradually reduce to their ultimate levels in 2035, which are for both sexes 0.8% per year for ages below 90, 0.5% for ages 90 to 94, and 0.2% for ages 95 and above. Considering future mortality improvements, life expectancy at age 65 in 2019 is projected to be 21.4 years for males, and 23.9 years for females. This represents a decrease of 0.1 years in life expectancy at age 65 in 2019 for males and no change for females, relative to the 27th CPP Actuarial Report projections.

To project CPP benefits, the mortality rates for CPP retirement, survivor, and disability beneficiaries reflect actual experience for those segments of the population. Specific mortality experience for CPP beneficiaries is discussed further in Appendix B of this report.

3.2.3 Net Migration

Net migration corresponds to the number of immigrants less the number of emigrants, plus the number of returning Canadians and the net increase in the number of non-permanent residents.

The net migration rate is expected to decrease from its current (2018) level of 1.11% of the population to 0.86% in 2019, 0.73% in 2020, and reach an ultimate level of 0.62% of the population for the year 2021 and thereafter. The ultimate net migration rate of 0.62% corresponds to the average experience observed over the last 10 years, excluding the net increase in non-permanent residents during that period. For the Québec population, the 2021 ultimate net migration rate assumption corresponds to the 10-year average historical experience for the province of 0.43%, excluding the net increase in non-permanents residents.

3.2.4 Population Projections

Table 2 shows the population of Canada less Québec for three age groups (0-19, 20-64 and 65 and over) throughout the projection period. The ratio of the number of people aged 20-64 to those aged 65 and over is a measure that approximates the ratio of the number of working-age people to retirees. Because of the aging population, this ratio is projected to drop from 3.6 in 2019 to about half its value or 1.9 in 2095.

Table 2 Population of Canada less Québec (thousands)
Year Total Age
0-19
Age
20-64
Age
65 and Over
Ratio of 20-64 to
65 and Over
2019 29,025 6,351 17,707 4,967 3.6
2020 29,354 6,368 17,821 5,165 3.5
2021 29,657 6,389 17,903 5,365 3.3
2022 29,963 6,428 17,965 5,570 3.2
2023 30,272 6,479 18,013 5,780 3.1
2024 30,583 6,533 18,059 5,991 3.0
2025 30,896 6,596 18,092 6,208 2.9
2030 32,432 6,860 18,320 7,251 2.5
2035 33,841 7,096 18,825 7,921 2.4
2040 35,094 7,286 19,428 8,380 2.3
2045 36,227 7,382 20,121 8,724 2.3
2050 37,302 7,458 20,686 9,158 2.3
2055 38,381 7,609 21,099 9,674 2.2
2060 39,516 7,839 21,390 10,286 2.1
2065 40,716 8,093 21,716 10,907 2.0
2075 43,164 8,525 22,937 11,702 2.0
2085 45,555 8,892 24,291 12,372 2.0
2095 48,097 9,381 25,459 13,257 1.9

3.3 Economic and Investment Assumptions

The main economic assumptions for the Canada Pension Plan are: labour force participation rates, job creation rates, unemployment rates, the rate of increase in prices, and real increases in average employment earnings. For asset projections, further assumptions on real rates of return on invested assets are required.

One of the key elements underlying the best estimate economic assumptions relates to the continued trend toward longer working lives. Older workers are expected to exit the workforce at a later age, which could alleviate the impact of the aging of the population on future labour force growth. However, despite the expected later exit ages, labour force growth is projected to weaken as the working-age population expands at a slower pace and baby boomers exit the labour force. As a result, labour shortages together with projected improvements in productivity growth are assumed to create upward pressure on real wages until 2025.

3.3.1 Labour Force

Employment levels vary with the rate of unemployment, and reflect trends in increased workforce participation by women, longer periods of formal education among young adults, as well as changing retirement patterns of older workers.

As the population ages, older age groups with lower labour force participation increase in size. As a result, the labour force participation rate for Canadians aged 15 and over is expected to decline from 65.2% in 2019 to 63.0% in 2035. A more useful measure of the working-age population is the participation rate of those aged 18 to 69, which is expected to increase from 76.0% in 2019 to 79.2% in 2035.

The increase in the participation rate for those aged 18 to 69 is mainly due to an assumed increase in participation rates for those aged 55 and over as a result of an expected continued trend toward longer working lives. Furthermore, labour shortages create attractive employment opportunities that will continue to exert upward pressure on the participation rates for all age groups. It is also expected that future participation rates will increase with the aging of cohorts that have a stronger labour force attachment compared to previous cohorts due to higher education attainment. The cohort effect of stronger labour force attachment of women is expected to continue but at a much slower pace than in the past, resulting in a gradual narrowing of the gap between the age-specific participation rates of men and women.

As a result, the participation rates for females are projected to increase slightly more than for males. Overall, the male participation rate of those aged 18 to 69 is expected to increase from 79.8% in 2019 to 82.8% in 2035, while the female participation rate for the same age group is expected to increase from 72.1% in 2019 to 75.6% in 2035. Thereafter, the 2035 gap of 7.2% between males and females in this age group is expected to vary between 7.0% and 7.2%.

The job creation rate (i.e. the change in the number of persons employed) in Canada was on average 1.6% from 1976 to 2018 based on available employment data, and it is assumed that the rate will be 1.1% in 2019. The job creation rate assumption is determined on the basis of expected moderate economic growth and an unemployment rate for Canada, ages 15 and over, that is expected to increase from 5.8% in 2018 to 5.9% in 2019 and then reach an ultimate level of 6.2% by 2030. The assumed job creation rate for Canada, ages 15 and over, is on average about 0.7% from 2019 to 2025 and 0.6% from 2025 to 2030, which is slightly lower than the labour force growth rate. It is assumed that, starting in 2030, the job creation rate will follow the labour force growth rate, with both averaging 0.7% per year between 2030 and 2035, and 0.5% per year thereafter. The aging of the population is the main reason behind the expected slower long-term growth in the labour force and job creation rate.

3.3.2 Price Increases

Price increases, as measured by changes in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), tend to fluctuate from year to year. In Canada, increases in prices (inflation) was 2.3% in 2018.

In 2016, the Bank of Canada and the Government renewed their commitment to keep inflation between 1% and 3% until the end of 2021. The Senior Deputy Governor of the Bank of Canada indicated in November 2018 that the Bank was undergoing an extensive review of its monetary policy framework. A number of variants to replace the inflation target are being explored. The Bank is also looking at a possible dual mandate of targeting inflation as well as GDP growth or employmentFootnote 6. Nevertheless, given the success of the 2% inflation target, it is considered very likely that the Bank will renew its inflation target commitment or that the target will at least constitute an important part of the Bank’s future mandate.

Price increase forecasts from various economists indicate an average increase in prices of 2.0% from 2019 to 2040. To reflect these forecasts and the expectation that the Bank of Canada will renew its inflation target, the price increase assumption is set at 2.0% for 2019 and thereafter.

3.3.3 Real Wage Increases

Wage increases affect the financial state of the Canada Pension Plan in two ways. In the short term, an increase in the average wage translates into higher contribution income, with little immediate impact on benefits. Over the long term, higher average wages produce higher benefits.

The difference between nominal wage increases and inflation represents increases in the real wage, which is also referred to in this report as the real wage increase. There are five main factors that influence increases in the real wage, namely general productivity, the extent to which changes in productivity are shared between labour and capital, changes in the compensation structure offered to employees, changes in the average number of hours worked, and changes in labour’s terms of tradeFootnote 7.

The real wage increase is projected to gradually rise from 0.3% in 2019 to an ultimate value of 1.0% by 2025. The ultimate real wage increase assumption is developed taking into account the relationships described above, historical trends, labour shortages, and other changes in the labour market. The ultimate real wage increase assumption combined with the ultimate price increase assumption results in an assumed annual increase in average nominal wages of 3.0% in 2025 and thereafter.

The assumptions regarding the increase in average real annual employment earnings and job creation rates result in projected average annual real increases in total Canadian employment earnings of about 1.6% for the period 2018 to 2035. After 2035, this decreases to about 1.5% on average over the remainder of the projection period, reflecting the assumed 1.0% real increase in annual wages and projected average 0.5% annual growth in the working-age population.

Given historical trends and the long-term relationship between increases in the average annual employment earnings and the YMPE, it is assumed that the nominal wage increase assumption is also applicable to the increases in the YMPE from one year to the next.

3.3.4 Real Rates of Return on Investments

Real rates of return on investments are the excess of the nominal rates of return over price increases and are required for the projection of revenue arising from investment income. A real rate of return is assumed for each year in the projection period and for each of the main asset categories in which the base and additional CPP assets are invested. The assumed long-term real rates of return on base and additional CPP assets take into account the assumed asset mixes of investments, as well as the assumed real rates of return for all categories of CPP assets. The real rates of return on investments are net of all investment expenses, including CPPIB operating expenses. The 75-year average real rate of return on the base CPP assets is assumed to be 3.95%. The additional CPP, which is assumed to have a different asset mix than the base CPP, has an expected 75-year average real rate of return of 3.38%.

For the period 2019 to 2028, the assumed annual real rates of return are lower than the assumed ultimate real rates of return in 2029 due to lower expected bond returns during the period. The average real rates of return over the period 2019-2028 for the base and additional CPP are respectively 3.6% and 2.1%. The ultimate real rates of return for the base and additional CPP are respectively 4.0% and 3.6%. Table 3 summarizes the main economic assumptions over the projection period.

Table 3 Economic Assumptions (percentages)
Year Real Increase Average Annual Earnings Real Increase Average Weekly Earnings (YMPE) Price Increase Labour Force (Canada) Real Rates of Return on Investments
Participation Rate
(Ages 15+)
Job Creation Rate
(Ages 15+)
Unemployment Rate Labour Force Annual Increase Base
CPP
Additional
CPP
2019 0.3 0.3 2.0 65.2 1.1 5.9 1.1 2.9 (0.7)Table footnote 1
2020 0.5 0.5 2.0 65.1 0.8 5.9 0.8 2.8 0.4
2021 0.6 0.6 2.0 64.9 0.7 5.9 0.7 3.8 2.3
2022 0.7 0.7 2.0 64.7 0.7 6.0 0.7 3.6 2.4
2023 0.8 0.8 2.0 64.5 0.7 6.0 0.7 3.7 2.5
2024 0.9 0.9 2.0 64.3 0.6 6.0 0.7 3.7 2.6
2025 1.0 1.0 2.0 64.1 0.6 6.1 0.7 3.6 2.7
2030 1.0 1.0 2.0 63.2 0.6 6.2 0.6 4.0 3.6
2035 1.0 1.0 2.0 63.0 0.7 6.2 0.7 4.0 3.6
2040 1.0 1.0 2.0 62.5 0.6 6.2 0.6 4.0 3.6
2045 1.0 1.0 2.0 62.2 0.5 6.2 0.5 4.0 3.6
2050 1.0 1.0 2.0 61.9 0.4 6.2 0.4 4.0 3.6
2055 1.0 1.0 2.0 61.5 0.3 6.2 0.3 4.0 3.6
2060 1.0 1.0 2.0 61.0 0.3 6.2 0.3 4.0 3.6
2065 1.0 1.0 2.0 60.5 0.4 6.2 0.4 4.0 3.6
2075 1.0 1.0 2.0 60.2 0.5 6.2 0.5 4.0 3.6
2085 1.0 1.0 2.0 60.1 0.5 6.2 0.5 4.0 3.6
2095 1.0 1.0 2.0 59.8 0.4 6.2 0.4 4.0 3.6

Table 3 Footnotes

Table footnote 1

The initial real rate of return on the additional CPP’s assets is assumed to be negative due to the assumed implementation expenses of the CPPIB of $9 million and the assumed increase in bond yields which results in a negative return for bonds in 2019.

Return to Table footnote 1

3.4 Other Assumptions

This report is based on several other key assumptions, such as retirement benefit take-up rates and disability incidence rates.

3.4.1 Retirement Benefit Take-up Rates

The retirement benefit take-up rates are determined on a cohort basis. The sex-distinct retirement benefit take-up rate for any given age and year from age 60 and above corresponds to the number of emerging (new) retirement beneficiaries divided by the total number of people eligible for retirement benefits for the given sex, age, and year. The unreduced pension age under the Canada Pension Plan is 65. However, since 1987 a person can choose to receive a reduced retirement pension as early as age 60. This provision has had the effect of lowering the average age at pension take-up. In 1986, the average age at pension take-up was 65.2, compared to an average age of 62.5 over the decade ending in 2018.

In 2012, there was a significant increase observed in the retirement benefit take-up rates at age 60 for the cohort reaching age 60 that year. The retirement benefit take-up rates at age 60 in 2012 were 41% and 43% for males and females, respectively, compared to the corresponding rates of 32% and 35% in 2011. The observed increase in the retirement benefit take-up rates at age 60 in 2012 may have resulted from two provisions of the Economic Recovery Act (stimulus). First, the work cessation test to receive the pension early (prior to age 65) was removed in 2012. As such, starting in 2012, individuals may receive a CPP retirement pension without having to stop working or materially reduce their earnings. The removal of the work cessation test may have thus led at least in part to the observed increase in take-up rates at age 60 in 2012. Second, greater reductions in early retirement pensions were scheduled to be phased in over a five-year period, starting in 2012. The anticipation of greater adjustments may have also contributed toward the observed increase in retirement benefit take-up rates at age 60 in 2012.

After 2012, the age 60 retirement benefit take-up rates have continually decreased as the higher actuarial adjustments were phased in and the effect of the removal of the work cessation test diminished. For cohorts reaching age 60 in 2018, the retirement benefit take-up rates are 27.9% for males and 30.6% for females, which are the lowest such rates since 1992.

The retirement take-up rates at age 60 observed for 2018 are assumed to further decrease over the next three years such that, for cohorts reaching age 60 in 2021 and thereafter, the retirement benefit take-up rates are assumed to be 27.0% for males and 29.5% for females. For cohorts reaching age 65 in 2026 and thereafter, the retirement benefit take-up rates are 46.4% for both sexes. These rates result in a projected average age at retirement pension take-up in 2030 of 63.5 for males and 63.3 for females. The same retirement take–up rates apply to the additional CPP.

3.4.2 Disability Incidence Rates - Disability Pension

The sex-distinct disability incidence rate in respect of the disability pension at any given age is the number of new disability beneficiaries divided by the total number of people eligible for the disability pension at that age. The disability incidence rates for the base Plan are the same as for the additional Plan.

Based on the experience over the period from 2003 to 2018, the overall incidence rates for the year 2019 and thereafter are assumed to remain constant at the values in 2018, which are 2.95 per thousand eligible for males and 3.65 per thousand eligible for females.

The assumptions for the disability incidence rates in respect of the disability pension recognize that current disability incidence rates are significantly below the levels experienced from the mid-1970s to mid-1990s for males and during the early 1980s and early to mid-1990s for females. It is also recognized that incidence rates for both sexes have been relatively stable since 1997 as a result of administrative changes made to the disability program.

4. Results - Base CPP

4.1 Overview

The key observations and findings of the actuarial projections of the financial state of the base Canada Pension Plan presented in this report are as follows.

  • With the legislated contribution rate of 9.9%, contributions to the base CPP are projected to be more than sufficient to cover the expenditures over the period 2019 to 2021. Thereafter, a portion of investment income is required to make up the difference between contributions and expenditures. Between 2030 and 2050, it is projected that about 22% of investment income will be required to pay for expenditures. In 2095, it is projected that 37% of investment income will be required to cover expenditures.

  • With the legislated contribution rate of 9.9%, total assets of the base Plan are expected to increase significantly over the next decade and then will continue increasing, but at a slower pace. Total assets are expected to grow from $372 billion at the end of 2018 to $688 billion by the end of 2030. Assets are then projected to reach $1.7 trillion by 2050 and $9.9 trillion by 2095. The ratio of assets to the following year’s expenditures is projected to remain relatively stable at a level of 7.6 over the period 2021 to 2031 and then grow thereafter to values of 8.8 in 2050 and 9.5 in 2095.

  • With the legislated contribution rate of 9.9%, investment income of the base Plan, which is expected to represent 26% of revenues (i.e. contributions and investment income) in 2019, is projected to represent 37% of revenues in 2050 and 42% of revenues by 2095. This illustrates the importance of investment income as a source of revenues for the base Plan.

  • The minimum contribution rate (MCR) to sustain the base Plan is 9.75% of contributory earnings for years 2022 to 2033 and 9.72% for the year 2034 and thereafter. The legislated contribution rate of 9.9% applies to the first three years after the valuation year, that is, to the current triennial review period of 2019-2021.

  • The MCR consists of two separate components. First, the steady-state contribution rate, which is the lowest rate that results in the projected ratio of the assets to the following year’s expenditures of the base Plan remaining generally constant over the long term, before consideration of any full funding of increased or new benefits, is 9.71% for the year 2022 and thereafter. The second component is the full funding rate that is required to fully fund the recent amendments made to the Canada Pension Plan under Bill C-74 – Budget Implementation Act, 2018, No. 1. The full funding rate is 0.04% for years 2022 to 2033 and 0.01% for the year 2034 and thereafter.

  • Under the MCR, the ratio of assets to the following year’s expenditures is projected to decrease slightly from 7.6 in 2022 to 7.5 in 2031 and to be the same fifty years later in 2081.

  • The MCR determined for this report is lower than the MCR of 9.79% determined under the 27th CPP Actuarial Report. Experience over the period 2016 to 2018 was better than expected overall, especially regarding investment returns, leading to a decrease in the MCR. This decrease is partially offset by changes in assumptions. As well, the amendments under Bills C-74 and C-97 have the effects of increasing the MCR. The net result of all changes since the 27th CPP Actuarial Report is an overall absolute decrease in the MCR of 0.07% for the year 2034 and thereafter.

  • Although the pay-as-you-go rate is expected to increase over time from 9.4% in 2019 to 12.5% by 2095 due to the retirement of the baby boom generation and the projected continued aging of the population, the legislated contribution rate of 9.9% is sufficient to finance the base Plan over the long term. The pay-as-you-go rate is the contribution rate that would need to be paid if there were no assets.

  • The number of contributors to the CPP is expected to grow from 14.5 million in 2019 to 18.4 million in 2050 and 23.1 million by 2095. Under the legislated contribution rate of 9.9%, base CPP contributions are expected to increase from $51.7 billion in 2019 to $165.5 billion in 2050 and to continue increasing thereafter.

  • The number of base CPP retirement beneficiaries is expected to increase from 5.6 million in 2019 to 9.9 million in 2050 and to continue increasing thereafter.

  • There continues to be more female than male base CPP retirement beneficiaries, and by 2050 there is expected to be approximately 750,000 (or 16%) more female than male retirement beneficiaries. Thereafter, the relative difference is projected to fall.

  • Total expenditures of the base Plan are expected to grow rapidly from approximately $49.3 billion in 2019 to $86.8 billion in 2030. Thereafter, total expenditures are projected to grow at a slower pace, reaching $187.9 billion in 2050 and $1.0 trillion by 2095.

4.2 Contributions

Projected contributions are the product of the contribution rate, the number of contributors, and the average contributory earnings. The contribution rate for the base CPP is set by law and is 9.9%. As of 1 January 2019, all contributors to the base CPP also contribute to the additional CPP.

Table 4 presents the projected number of CPP contributors, including CPP retirement beneficiaries who are working (i.e. “working beneficiaries”), their base CPP contributory earnings and contributions. The number of contributors by age and sex is directly linked to the assumed labour force participation rates applied to the projected working-age population and the job creation rates. Hence, the demographic and economic assumptions have a great influence on the expected level of contributions. In this report, the number of CPP contributors is expected to increase continuously throughout the projection period, but at a generally decreasing pace, from 14.5 million in 2019 to 18.4 million in 2050 and 23.1 million by 2095. The future increase in the number of contributors is limited due to the projected lower growth in the working-age population and labour force.

The growth in base CPP contributory earnings, which are derived by subtracting the Year’s Basic Exemption (YBE) from pensionable earnings (up to the YMPE) is linked to the growth in average employment earnings through the assumption regarding annual increases in wages and is affected by the freeze on the YBE since 1998.

Contributions to the base CPP are expected to increase from $51.7 billion in 2019 to $165.5 billion in 2050 and to continue increasing thereafter, as shown in Table 4. The projected YMPE is also shown, which is assumed to increase according to the nominal wage increase assumption. The YMPE is projected to increase from $57,400 in 2019 to $67,100 in 2025 and $140,500 by 2050.

Since the legislated contribution rate is constant at 9.9% for the year 2019 and thereafter, contributions to the base CPP increase at the same rate as total contributory earnings over the projection period.

Table 4 Contributions - Base CPP
Year Contribution Rate
(%)
YMPE
($)
Number of Contributors
(thousands)
Contributory Earnings
($ million)
Contributions
($ million)
2019 9.9 57,400 14,528 521,967 51,675
2020 9.9 58,700 14,712 542,126 53,670
2021 9.9 60,200 14,869 563,194 55,756
2022 9.9 61,800 15,026 585,498 57,964
2023 9.9 63,400 15,152 607,349 60,128
2024 9.9 65,200 15,274 630,884 62,458
2025 9.9 67,100 15,391 655,541 64,899
2030 9.9 77,800 15,935 791,884 78,397
2035 9.9 90,200 16,599 960,579 95,097
2040 9.9 104,600 17,201 1,157,737 114,616
2045 9.9 121,200 17,854 1,394,863 138,091
2050 9.9 140,500 18,422 1,671,351 165,464
2055 9.9 162,900 18,855 1,987,685 196,781
2060 9.9 188,900 19,214 2,353,547 233,001
2065 9.9 219,000 19,606 2,789,376 276,148
2075 9.9 294,300 20,741 3,973,597 393,386
2085 9.9 395,500 21,989 5,669,320 561,263
2095 9.9 531,600 23,126 8,026,025 794,577

4.3 Expenditures

The projected number of base CPP beneficiaries by type of benefit is given in Table 5, while Table 6 presents information for male and female beneficiaries separately. The number of retirement, disability, and survivor beneficiaries increases throughout the projection period. In particular, the number of retirement beneficiaries is expected to increase from 5.6 million in 2019 to 7.9 million by 2030 or by 42% due to the aging of the population and retirement of the baby boomers. By 2050, the number of retirement beneficiaries is projected to be 9.9 million. Female retirement beneficiaries continue to outnumber their male counterparts, and by 2050 there is projected to be 750,000 or 16% more female than male beneficiaries. Over the same period, the number of disability and survivor beneficiaries is projected to increase but at a much slower pace than for retirement beneficiaries.

Table 5 Beneficiaries - Base CPPFootnote 1 (thousands)
Year RetirementFootnote 2,Footnote 3,Footnote 4,Footnote 5 DisabilityFootnote 4,Footnote 6 SurvivorFootnote 5,Footnote 6 Children DeathFootnote 7
2019 5,561 404 1,292 218 159
2020 5,807 408 1,313 224 163
2021 6,017 412 1,335 230 167
2022 6,234 415 1,357 237 172
2023 6,461 417 1,380 244 176
2024 6,688 420 1,403 249 181
2025 6,913 421 1,427 254 186
2030 7,893 423 1,559 280 216
2035 8,555 448 1,703 309 252
2040 9,024 485 1,841 337 288
2045 9,442 526 1,952 356 317
2050 9,926 554 2,029 360 338
2055 10,492 570 2,074 359 351
2060 11,122 573 2,099 358 357
2065 11,686 574 2,128 364 363
2075 12,554 618 2,256 383 395
2085 13,316 671 2,395 397 433
2095 14,269 705 2,432 408 447

Table 5 Footnotes

Table footnote 1

Numbers of beneficiaries by sex in Table 6 may not sum to total numbers of beneficiaries shown in Table 5 due to rounding.

Return to Table footnote 1

Table footnote 2

The number given for retirement beneficiaries includes working beneficiaries.

Return to Table footnote 2

Table footnote 3

The number given for retirement beneficiaries does not take into account that the retirement pension can be shared between spouses.

Return to Table footnote 3

Table footnote 4

A beneficiary who receives concurrently a retirement and post-retirement disability benefit is counted in each of the retirement and disability benefit categories.

Return to Table footnote 4

Table footnote 5

A beneficiary who receives concurrently a retirement and a survivor’s benefit is counted in each category.

Return to Table footnote 5

Table footnote 6

A beneficiary who receives concurrently a disability and survivor’s benefit is counted in each category.

Return to Table footnote 6

Table footnote 7

This is the number of deceased contributors whose estate is entitled to a death benefit during the given year.

Return to Table footnote 7

Table 6 Beneficiaries by Sex - Base CPP (thousands)Footnote 1
Year Males Females
RetirementFootnote 2,Footnote 3,Footnote 4,Footnote 5 DisabilityFootnote 4,Footnote 6 SurvivorFootnote 5,Footnote 6 DeathFootnote 7 RetirementFootnote 2,Footnote 3,Footnote 4,Footnote 5 DisabilityFootnote 4,Footnote 6 SurvivorFootnote 5,Footnote 6 DeathFootnote 7
2019 2,688 183 251 95 2,872 221 1,042 65
2020 2,797 184 259 97 3,010 224 1,054 67
2021 2,894 185 268 98 3,124 227 1,067 69
2022 2,993 186 277 100 3,241 229 1,080 71
2023 3,098 187 285 103 3,364 231 1,094 74
2024 3,202 187 294 105 3,486 232 1,109 76
2025 3,305 187 303 107 3,608 234 1,124 79
2030 3,747 186 346 122 4,147 238 1,213 95
2035 4,023 194 386 139 4,533 253 1,317 113
2040 4,200 210 416 154 4,824 274 1,424 133
2045 4,364 229 436 166 5,078 296 1,516 151
2050 4,588 243 446 174 5,338 311 1,582 164
2055 4,881 250 452 178 5,611 321 1,622 173
2060 5,224 249 458 180 5,898 324 1,641 177
2065 5,525 247 467 183 6,161 327 1,662 179
2075 5,950 267 489 201 6,604 352 1,767 194
2085 6,316 290 500 220 7,000 381 1,895 213
2095 6,789 305 501 224 7,480 400 1,931 222

Table 6 Footnotes

Table footnote 1

Numbers of beneficiaries by sex in Table 6 may not sum to total numbers of beneficiaries shown in Table 5 due to rounding.

Return to Table footnote 1

Table footnote 2

The number given for retirement beneficiaries includes working beneficiaries.

Return to Table footnote 2

Table footnote 3

The number given for retirement beneficiaries does not take into account that the retirement pension can be shared between spouses.

Return to Table footnote 3

Table footnote 4

A beneficiary who receives concurrently a retirement and post-retirement disability benefit is counted in each of the retirement and disability benefit categories.

Return to Table footnote 4

Table footnote 5

A beneficiary who receives concurrently a retirement and a survivor’s benefit is counted in each category.

Return to Table footnote 5

Table footnote 6

A beneficiary who receives concurrently a disability and survivor’s benefit is counted in each category.

Return to Table footnote 6

Table footnote 7

This is the number of deceased contributors entitled to a death benefit during the given year.

Return to Table footnote 7

Table 7 shows the amount of projected base CPP expenditures by type. Total expenditures of the base Plan are expected to grow rapidly from approximately $49.3 billion in 2019 to $86.8 billion in 2030. Thereafter, total expenditures are projected to grow at a slower pace, reaching $187.9 billion in 2050. Table 8 shows the same information but in millions of 2019 constant dollars.

Table 9 shows the projected base CPP expenditures by type expressed as a percentage of contributory earnings. These are referred to as the pay-as-you-go (or “PayGo”) rates. A pay-as-you-go rate corresponds to the contribution rate that would need to be paid if there were no assets. Although the total pay-as-you-go rate is expected to increase significantly from 9.4% in 2019 to 12.5% by the end of the projection period, the legislated contribution rate of 9.9% is sufficient to finance the base Plan over the projection period.

Table 7 Expenditures - Base CPP ($ million)
Year RetirementFootnote 1 DisabilityFootnote 2 Survivor Children Death Operating ExpensesFootnote 3 Total
2019 38,541 4,363 4,802 528 398 659 49,291
2020 41,228 4,498 4,899 554 408 683 52,270
2021 43,665 4,630 5,002 582 418 707 55,004
2022 46,369 4,756 5,109 611 429 733 58,007
2023 49,249 4,876 5,222 642 441 759 61,188
2024 52,295 5,007 5,342 669 453 786 64,551
2025 55,472 5,131 5,472 696 466 814 68,052
2026 58,730 5,257 5,614 724 479 843 71,648
2027 62,031 5,385 5,769 753 493 874 75,305
2028 65,391 5,513 5,938 784 508 905 79,039
2029 68,811 5,655 6,123 816 524 937 82,867
2030 72,245 5,820 6,326 850 540 971 86,752
2031 75,652 6,021 6,546 885 557 1,006 90,667
2032 79,012 6,248 6,785 920 574 1,043 94,583
2033 82,362 6,494 7,040 957 593 1,081 98,526
2034 85,757 6,755 7,313 996 611 1,121 102,553
2035 89,223 7,029 7,603 1,038 629 1,163 106,684
2036 92,768 7,314 7,909 1,080 647 1,204 110,922
2037 96,357 7,625 8,231 1,122 665 1,247 115,248
2038 99,979 7,962 8,568 1,166 684 1,293 119,651
2039 103,674 8,322 8,920 1,210 701 1,340 124,167
2040 107,497 8,693 9,285 1,254 718 1,388 128,835
2041 111,464 9,080 9,662 1,296 734 1,439 133,676
2042 115,578 9,483 10,050 1,338 750 1,492 138,691
2043 119,867 9,900 10,448 1,378 765 1,547 143,907
2044 124,366 10,327 10,858 1,418 780 1,605 149,353
2045 129,101 10,757 11,276 1,456 792 1,663 155,045
2046 134,106 11,189 11,702 1,491 804 1,724 161,016
2047 139,395 11,622 12,135 1,525 816 1,787 167,279
2048 144,971 12,056 12,575 1,559 826 1,851 173,838
2049 150,859 12,495 13,021 1,592 836 1,917 180,720
2050 157,090 12,932 13,472 1,624 844 1,984 187,948
2055 193,653 15,126 15,781 1,783 876 2,349 229,568
2060 240,078 17,272 18,239 1,969 891 2,769 281,218
2065 294,776 19,706 21,144 2,209 905 3,267 342,009
2070 355,890 23,218 24,885 2,505 937 3,874 411,310
2075 427,008 27,465 29,737 2,837 987 4,619 492,653
2080 510,241 32,551 35,628 3,196 1,040 5,509 588,165
2085 609,556 38,607 42,324 3,578 1,083 6,563 701,711
2090 731,717 45,267 49,594 3,997 1,108 7,804 839,487
2095 881,259 52,698 57,461 4,482 1,116 9,264 1,006,280

Table 7 Footnotes

Table footnote 1

Retirement expenditures include expenditures related to post-retirement benefits for working beneficiaries.

Return to Table footnote 1

Table footnote 2

Disability expenditures include expenditures related to post-retirement disability benefits for disabled retirement beneficiaries.

Return to Table footnote 2

Table footnote 3

Plan operating expenses exclude CPPIB operating expenses, which are accounted for separately in the investment expenses assumption.

Return to Table footnote 3

Table 8 Expenditures - Base CPPFootnote 1 (millions of 2019 constant dollars)
Year RetirementFootnote 2 DisabilityFootnote 3 Survivor Children Death Operating ExpensesFootnote 4 Total
2019 38,541 4,363 4,802 528 398 659 49,291
2020 40,419 4,410 4,803 543 400 670 51,245
2021 41,969 4,450 4,808 559 402 680 52,868
2022 43,694 4,482 4,814 576 404 691 54,661
2023 45,499 4,504 4,824 593 407 701 56,528
2024 47,365 4,535 4,838 606 410 712 58,466
2025 49,258 4,556 4,859 618 414 723 60,428
2026 51,128 4,576 4,888 630 417 734 62,373
2027 52,943 4,596 4,924 643 421 746 64,272
2028 54,716 4,613 4,969 656 425 757 66,136
2029 56,449 4,639 5,023 670 430 769 67,980
2030 58,104 4,681 5,088 684 435 781 69,772
2031 59,651 4,748 5,162 698 439 793 71,490
2032 61,079 4,830 5,245 712 444 806 73,116
2033 62,420 4,921 5,335 725 449 819 74,671
2034 63,718 5,019 5,433 740 454 833 76,198
2035 64,994 5,120 5,538 756 458 847 77,714
2036 66,251 5,224 5,648 771 462 860 79,216
2037 67,465 5,339 5,763 786 466 873 80,692
2038 68,628 5,465 5,882 800 469 887 82,132
2039 69,770 5,600 6,003 814 472 902 83,561
2040 70,924 5,735 6,126 827 474 916 85,002
2041 72,099 5,873 6,250 839 475 931 86,467
2042 73,294 6,014 6,373 848 476 946 87,952
2043 74,524 6,155 6,496 857 476 962 89,470
2044 75,805 6,295 6,618 864 475 978 91,035
2045 77,148 6,428 6,739 870 474 994 92,652
2046 78,568 6,555 6,856 874 471 1,010 94,333
2047 80,065 6,675 6,970 876 468 1,026 96,081
2048 81,635 6,789 7,081 878 465 1,042 97,890
2049 83,285 6,898 7,188 879 461 1,058 99,770
2050 85,025 6,999 7,292 879 457 1,074 101,726
2055 94,933 7,415 7,736 874 429 1,152 112,540
2060 106,597 7,669 8,098 874 396 1,230 124,864
2065 118,545 7,925 8,503 889 364 1,314 137,540
2070 129,630 8,457 9,064 912 341 1,411 149,817
2075 140,873 9,061 9,810 936 326 1,524 162,529
2080 152,463 9,726 10,646 955 311 1,646 175,747
2085 164,969 10,449 11,455 968 293 1,776 189,910
2090 179,362 11,096 12,157 980 271 1,913 205,779
2095 195,655 11,700 12,757 995 248 2,057 223,412

Table 8 Footnotes

Table footnote 1

For a given year, the value in 2019 constant dollars is equal to the corresponding value in current dollars divided by the cumulative projected increases in prices since 2019.

Return to Table footnote 1

Table footnote 2

Retirement expenditures include expenditures related to post-retirement benefits for working beneficiaries.

Return to Table footnote 2

Table footnote 3

Disability expenditures include expenditures related to post-retirement disability benefits for disabled retirement beneficiaries.

Return to Table footnote 3

Table footnote 4

Plan operating expenses exclude CPPIB operating expenses, which are accounted for separately in the investment expenses assumption.

Return to Table footnote 4

Table 9 Expenditures as Percentage of Contributory Earnings - Base CPP (pay-as-you-go rates) (%)
Year RetirementFootnote 1 DisabilityFootnote 2 Survivor Children Death Operating ExpensesFootnote 3 Total
2019 7.38 0.84 0.92 0.10 0.08 0.13 9.44
2020 7.60 0.83 0.90 0.10 0.08 0.13 9.64
2021 7.75 0.82 0.89 0.10 0.07 0.13 9.77
2022 7.92 0.81 0.87 0.10 0.07 0.13 9.91
2023 8.11 0.80 0.86 0.11 0.07 0.12 10.07
2024 8.29 0.79 0.85 0.11 0.07 0.12 10.23
2025 8.46 0.78 0.83 0.11 0.07 0.12 10.38
2026 8.63 0.77 0.82 0.11 0.07 0.12 10.53
2027 8.77 0.76 0.82 0.11 0.07 0.12 10.65
2028 8.91 0.75 0.81 0.11 0.07 0.12 10.77
2029 9.03 0.74 0.80 0.11 0.07 0.12 10.87
2030 9.12 0.73 0.80 0.11 0.07 0.12 10.96
2031 9.20 0.73 0.80 0.11 0.07 0.12 11.02
2032 9.24 0.73 0.79 0.11 0.07 0.12 11.06
2033 9.27 0.73 0.79 0.11 0.07 0.12 11.09
2034 9.28 0.73 0.79 0.11 0.07 0.12 11.10
2035 9.29 0.73 0.79 0.11 0.07 0.12 11.11
2036 9.31 0.73 0.79 0.11 0.06 0.12 11.13
2037 9.31 0.74 0.80 0.11 0.06 0.12 11.14
2038 9.31 0.74 0.80 0.11 0.06 0.12 11.14
2039 9.30 0.75 0.80 0.11 0.06 0.12 11.14
2040 9.29 0.75 0.80 0.11 0.06 0.12 11.13
2041 9.28 0.76 0.80 0.11 0.06 0.12 11.13
2042 9.27 0.76 0.81 0.11 0.06 0.12 11.12
2043 9.25 0.76 0.81 0.11 0.06 0.12 11.11
2044 9.25 0.77 0.81 0.11 0.06 0.12 11.11
2045 9.26 0.77 0.81 0.10 0.06 0.12 11.12
2046 9.26 0.77 0.81 0.10 0.06 0.12 11.12
2047 9.29 0.77 0.81 0.10 0.05 0.12 11.14
2048 9.31 0.77 0.81 0.10 0.05 0.12 11.17
2049 9.35 0.77 0.81 0.10 0.05 0.12 11.20
2050 9.40 0.77 0.81 0.10 0.05 0.12 11.25
2055 9.74 0.76 0.79 0.09 0.04 0.12 11.55
2060 10.20 0.73 0.77 0.08 0.04 0.12 11.95
2065 10.57 0.71 0.76 0.08 0.03 0.12 12.26
2070 10.71 0.70 0.75 0.08 0.03 0.12 12.37
2075 10.75 0.69 0.75 0.07 0.02 0.12 12.40
2080 10.74 0.69 0.75 0.07 0.02 0.12 12.38
2085 10.75 0.68 0.75 0.06 0.02 0.12 12.38
2090 10.84 0.67 0.73 0.06 0.02 0.12 12.44
2095 10.98 0.66 0.72 0.06 0.01 0.12 12.54

Table 9 Footnotes

Table footnote 1

Retirement expenditures include expenditures related to post-retirement benefits for working beneficiaries.

Return to Table footnote 1

Table footnote 2

Disability expenditures include expenditures related to post-retirement disability benefits for disabled retirement beneficiaries.

Return to Table footnote 2

Table footnote 3

Plan operating expenses exclude CPPIB operating expenses, which are accounted for separately in the investment expenses assumption.

Return to Table footnote 3

4.4 Financial Projections with Legislated Contribution Rate

4.4.1 Market Value of Assets as at 31 December 2018

Prior to 2001, CPP assets were valued at cost because they were traditionally limited to short-term investments and 20-year non-marketable bonds in the form of loans to the provinces. With the creation of the CPP Investment Board (CPPIB) in 1997, excess cash flows (contributions less Plan expenditures) not needed to pay benefits are invested in the capital markets as of 1999. Those assets, as is usually the case for private pension plans, are valued at market. The market value of base CPP assets is $371.7 billion as at 31 December 2018.

4.4.2 Projected Financial State

Table 10 presents historical results of the base CPP while Table 11 and Table 12 present the projected financial state of the base CPP using the legislated contribution rate of 9.9% in current dollars and in 2019 constant dollars, respectively. The projected financial state of the base CPP using the minimum contribution rate of 9.75% for years 2022-2033, and 9.72% for 2034 and thereafter is discussed in the next section 4.5.

Base CPP assets are projected to increase significantly over the next decade and then to continue increasing, but at a slower pace. As shown in Table 11, base CPP assets are projected to increase from $371.7 billion in 2018 to $687.6 billion in 2030 and to $1,718.2 billion by 2050.

The substantially better than expected investment experience of the base Plan over the previous three years and thus higher than expected level of base CPP assets as at the end of 2018 leads to projected base CPP assets that are significantly higher than projected under the previous triennial actuarial report (the 27th CPP Actuarial Report as at 31 December 2015).

Table 10 Historical Results - Base CPP
Year PayGo Rate
(%)
Contribution Rate
(%)
Contributions
($ million)
Expenditures
($ million)
Net Cash Flow
($ million)
Net Investment Income
($ million)Footnote 2
Assets at 31 Dec.
($ million)Footnote 1
Yield/ Return
(%)Footnote 2
Assets/Expenditures
Ratio
1966 0.05 3.6 531 8 523 2 525 0.7 52.5
1970 0.45 3.6 773 97 676 193 3,596 6.2 24.1
1975 1.42 3.6 1,426 561 865 607 9,359 7.2 11.5
1980 2.72 3.6 2,604 1,965 639 1,466 18,433 8.7 7.6
1985 4.31 3.6 4,032 4,826 (794) 3,113 31,130 10.8 5.7
1986 4.20 3.6 4,721 5,503 (782) 3,395 33,743 10.9 4.7
1987 5.02 3.8 5,393 7,130 (1,737) 3,654 35,660 10.9 4.3
1988 5.41 4.0 6,113 8,272 (2,159) 3,886 37,387 11.0 4.0
1989 5.89 4.2 6,694 9,391 (2,697) 4,162 38,852 11.3 3.7
1990 5.82 4.4 7,889 10,438 (2,549) 4,386 40,689 11.4 3.5
1991 6.31 4.6 8,396 11,518 (3,122) 4,476 42,043 11.2 3.2
1992 7.07 4.8 8,883 13,076 (4,193) 4,497 42,347 11.0 3.0
1993 7.79 5.0 9,166 14,273 (5,107) 4,480 41,720 10.9 2.7
1994 8.33 5.2 9,585 15,362 (5,777) 4,403 40,346 11.0 2.5
1995 7.91 5.4 10,911 15,986 (5,075) 4,412 39,683 11.3 2.4
1996 8.71 5.6 10,757 16,723 (5,966) 4,177 37,894 11.0 2.2
1997 8.67 6.0 12,165 17,570 (5,405) 3,971 36,460 10.8 2.0
1998 8.11 6.4 14,473 18,338 (3,865) 3,938 36,535 10.9 1.9
1999 8.23 7.0 16,052 18,877 (2,825) 764 42,783 1.7 2.2
2000 7.69 7.8 19,977 19,683 294 4,446 47,523 9.9 2.3
2001 7.85 8.6 22,469 20,515 1,954 3,154 52,631 6.2 2.4
2002 8.16 9.4 24,955 21,666 3,289 187 56,107 0.3 2.5
2003 8.19 9.9 27,454 22,716 4,738 6,769 67,614 11.1 2.8
2004 8.29 9.9 28,459 23,833 4,626 6,475 78,715 8.9 3.2
2005 8.37 9.9 29,539 24,976 4,563 11,083 94,361 13.2 3.6
2006 8.33 9.9 31,000 26,080 4,920 14,300 113,581 14.4 4.1
2007 8.15 9.9 33,621 27,691 5,930 3,269 122,780 2.7 4.2
2008 8.03 9.9 36,053 29,259 6,794 (18,350) 111,224 -14.2 3.6
2009 8.16 9.9 37,492 30,901 6,591 9,021 126,836 7.6 4.0
2010 8.83 9.9 35,885 32,023 3,862 11,804 142,502 8.9 4.2
2011 8.73 9.9 38,202 33,691 4,511 8,057 155,070 5.4 4.3
2012 8.84 9.9 40,682 36,321 4,361 15,664 175,095 9.7 4.7
2013 8.73 9.9 42,632 37,575 5,057 23,887 204,039 13.2 5.3
2014 8.70 9.9 44,181 38,808 5,373 32,136 241,548 15.2 5.9
2015 8.79 9.9 46,026 40,883 5,143 38,667 285,358 15.6 6.7
2016 9.06 9.9 46,492 42,561 3,931 12,244 301,533 4.2 6.8
2017 9.17 9.9 48,139 44,596 3,543 35,257 340,333 11.4 7.3
2018 9.30 9.9 49,594 46,591 3,003 28,364 371,700 8.2 7.5

Table 10 Footnotes

Table footnote 1

Results for years 1966 to 1998 are on a cost basis, while results for years 1999 to 2018 are presented on a market value basis. If assets were shown at market value at the end of 1998, total assets would be $44,864 million instead of $36,535 million.

Return to Table footnote 1

Table footnote 2

Rates of return and Investment Income are net of all investment expenses of the CPPIB for the year 1999 and thereafter.

Return to Table footnote 2

Table 11 Financial Projections - Base CPP, 9.9% Legislated Contribution Rate
Year PayGo Rate Contribution Rate
(%)
Contributory Earnings
(%)
Contributions
($ million)
Expenditures
($ million)
Net Cash Flow
($ million)
Net Investment Income Footnote 1
($ million)
Assets at 31 Dec.
($ million)
Net Rate of Return Footnote 1
($ million)
Assets/ Expenditures
Ratio (%)
2019 9.44 9.9 521,967 51,675 49,291 2,383 18,335 392,419 4.85 7.5
2020 9.64 9.9 542,126 53,670 52,270 1,400 19,307 413,126 4.85 7.5
2021 9.77 9.9 563,194 55,756 55,004 752 24,159 438,037 5.77 7.6
2022 9.91 9.9 585,498 57,964 58,007 (42) 24,929 462,924 5.62 7.6
2023 10.07 9.9 607,349 60,128 61,188 (1,061) 26,648 488,511 5.69 7.6
2024 10.23 9.9 630,884 62,458 64,551 (2,093) 28,367 514,785 5.74 7.6
2025 10.38 9.9 655,541 64,899 68,052 (3,153) 29,315 540,947 5.64 7.6
2026 10.53 9.9 680,630 67,382 71,648 (4,265) 31,113 567,795 5.70 7.5
2027 10.65 9.9 707,105 70,003 75,305 (5,301) 34,283 596,776 5.99 7.6
2028 10.77 9.9 734,162 72,682 79,039 (6,357) 35,149 625,568 5.85 7.5
2029 10.87 9.9 762,391 75,477 82,867 (7,390) 37,993 656,171 6.03 7.6
2030 10.96 9.9 791,884 78,397 86,752 (8,356) 39,826 687,641 6.03 7.6
2031 11.02 9.9 822,419 81,419 90,667 (9,248) 41,704 720,098 6.03 7.6
2032 11.06 9.9 854,840 84,629 94,583 (9,954) 43,649 753,793 6.03 7.7
2033 11.09 9.9 888,788 87,990 98,526 (10,536) 45,673 788,929 6.03 7.7
2034 11.10 9.9 924,146 91,490 102,553 (11,062) 47,768 825,636 6.02 7.7
2035 11.11 9.9 960,579 95,097 106,684 (11,587) 49,959 864,008 6.02 7.8
2036 11.13 9.9 996,622 98,666 110,922 (12,256) 52,249 904,001 6.02 7.8
2037 11.14 9.9 1,034,670 102,432 115,248 (12,815) 54,639 945,824 6.01 7.9
2038 11.14 9.9 1,074,381 106,364 119,651 (13,287) 57,141 989,679 6.01 8.0
2039 11.14 9.9 1,114,968 110,382 124,167 (13,785) 59,782 1,035,676 6.01 8.0
2040 11.13 9.9 1,157,737 114,616 128,835 (14,219) 62,550 1,084,006 6.01 8.1
2041 11.13 9.9 1,201,584 118,957 133,676 (14,719) 65,463 1,134,750 6.01 8.2
2042 11.12 9.9 1,247,334 123,486 138,691 (15,205) 68,538 1,188,083 6.01 8.3
2043 11.11 9.9 1,295,428 128,247 143,907 (15,659) 71,775 1,244,199 6.01 8.3
2044 11.11 9.9 1,344,464 133,102 149,353 (16,251) 75,166 1,303,114 6.01 8.4
2045 11.12 9.9 1,394,863 138,091 155,045 (16,954) 78,719 1,364,879 6.01 8.5
2046 11.12 9.9 1,447,496 143,302 161,016 (17,714) 82,443 1,429,608 6.01 8.5
2047 11.14 9.9 1,501,085 148,607 167,279 (18,671) 86,341 1,497,277 6.01 8.6
2048 11.17 9.9 1,556,720 154,115 173,838 (19,723) 90,414 1,567,968 6.01 8.7
2049 11.20 9.9 1,613,094 159,696 180,720 (21,023) 94,662 1,641,607 6.01 8.7
2050 11.25 9.9 1,671,351 165,464 187,948 (22,484) 99,085 1,718,208 6.01 8.8
2055 11.55 9.9 1,987,685 196,781 229,568 (32,788) 123,788 2,145,008 6.01 9.0
2060 11.95 9.9 2,353,547 233,001 281,218 (48,217) 152,558 2,640,210 6.01 9.0
2065 12.26 9.9 2,789,376 276,148 342,009 (65,861) 185,432 3,205,873 6.01 9.0
2070 12.37 9.9 3,324,016 329,078 411,310 (82,232) 223,716 3,866,645 6.01 9.1
2075 12.40 9.9 3,973,597 393,386 492,653 (99,266) 269,472 4,657,652 6.01 9.1
2080 12.38 9.9 4,749,801 470,230 588,165 (117,934) 324,797 5,615,242 6.01 9.2
2085 12.38 9.9 5,669,320 561,263 701,711 (140,448) 392,136 6,781,144 6.01 9.3
2090 12.44 9.9 6,750,680 668,317 839,487 (171,170) 473,590 8,189,811 6.01 9.4
2095 12.54 9.9 8,026,025 794,577 1,006,280 (211,703) 570,803 9,869,059 6.01 9.5
2050 11.25 9.9 1,671,351 165,464 187,948 (22,484) 99,085 1,718,208 6.01 8.8
2055 11.55 9.9 1,987,685 196,781 229,568 (32,788) 123,788 2,145,008 6.01 9.0
2060 11.95 9.9 2,353,547 233,001 281,218 (48,217) 152,558 2,640,210 6.01 9.0
2065 12.26 9.9 2,789,376 276,148 342,009 (65,861) 185,432 3,205,873 6.01 9.0
2070 12.37 9.9 3,324,016 329,078 411,310 (82,232) 223,716 3,866,645 6.01 9.1
2075 12.40 9.9 3,973,597 393,386 492,653 (99,266) 269,472 4,657,652 6.01 9.1
2080 12.38 9.9 4,749,801 470,230 588,165 (117,934) 324,797 5,615,242 6.01 9.2
2085 12.38 9.9 5,669,320 561,263 701,711 (140,448) 392,136 6,781,144 6.01 9.3
2090 12.44 9.9 6,750,680 668,317 839,487 (171,170) 473,590 8,189,811 6.01 9.4
2095 12.54 9.9 8,026,025 794,577 1,006,280 (211,703) 570,803 9,869,059 6.01 9.5

Table 11 Footnotes

Table footnote 1

Rates of Return and Investment Income are net of all investment expenses.

Return to Table footnote 1

Table 12 Financial Projections – Base CPP, 9.9% Legislated Contribution RateFootnote 1 (millions of 2019 constant dollars)
Year PayGo Rate
(%)
Contribution Rate
(%)
Contributory Earnings
($ million)
Contributions
($ million)
Expenditures
($ million)
Net Cash Flow
($ million)
Net Investment Income Footnote 2
($ million)
Assets at 31 Dec.
($ million)
2019 9.44 9.9 521,967 51,675 49,291 2,383 18,335 392,419
2020 9.64 9.9 531,496 52,618 51,245 1,373 18,928 405,025
2021 9.77 9.9 541,324 53,591 52,868 723 23,221 421,027
2022 9.91 9.9 551,728 54,621 54,661 (40) 23,492 436,224
2023 10.07 9.9 561,096 55,549 56,528 (980) 24,618 451,309
2024 10.23 9.9 571,411 56,570 58,466 (1,896) 25,693 466,257
2025 10.38 9.9 582,102 57,628 60,428 (2,800) 26,031 480,346
2026 10.53 9.9 592,530 58,660 62,373 (3,713) 27,086 494,300
2027 10.65 9.9 603,508 59,747 64,272 (4,525) 29,260 509,343
2028 10.77 9.9 614,314 60,817 66,136 (5,319) 29,411 523,448
2029 10.87 9.9 625,426 61,917 67,980 (6,062) 31,168 538,289
2030 10.96 9.9 636,883 63,051 69,772 (6,720) 32,030 553,044
2031 11.02 9.9 648,471 64,199 71,490 (7,292) 32,883 567,792
2032 11.06 9.9 660,819 65,421 73,116 (7,694) 33,742 582,706
2033 11.09 9.9 673,590 66,685 74,671 (7,985) 34,614 597,910
2034 11.10 9.9 686,654 67,979 76,198 (8,219) 35,493 613,459
2035 11.11 9.9 699,729 69,273 77,714 (8,440) 36,393 629,383
2036 11.13 9.9 711,750 70,463 79,216 (8,753) 37,314 645,604
2037 11.14 9.9 724,434 71,719 80,692 (8,973) 38,256 662,228
2038 11.14 9.9 737,489 73,011 82,132 (9,121) 39,224 679,346
2039 11.14 9.9 750,342 74,284 83,561 (9,277) 40,232 696,980
2040 11.13 9.9 763,847 75,621 85,002 (9,381) 41,269 715,201
2041 11.13 9.9 777,232 76,946 86,467 (9,521) 42,344 734,001
2042 11.12 9.9 791,004 78,309 87,952 (9,642) 43,464 753,430
2043 11.11 9.9 805,395 79,734 89,470 (9,736) 44,624 773,545
2044 11.11 9.9 819,493 81,130 91,035 (9,905) 45,816 794,288
2045 11.12 9.9 833,541 82,521 92,652 (10,131) 47,041 815,623
2046 11.12 9.9 848,033 83,955 94,333 (10,378) 48,300 837,553
2047 11.14 9.9 862,185 85,356 96,081 (10,724) 49,592 859,998
2048 11.17 9.9 876,608 86,784 97,890 (11,106) 50,913 882,942
2049 11.20 9.9 890,542 88,164 99,770 (11,606) 52,260 906,284
2050 11.25 9.9 904,612 89,557 101,726 (12,169) 53,629 929,973
2055 11.55 9.9 974,409 96,467 112,540 (16,073) 60,684 1,051,532
2060 11.95 9.9 1,044,999 103,455 124,864 (21,409) 67,737 1,172,280
2065 12.26 9.9 1,121,758 111,054 137,540 (26,486) 74,572 1,289,254
2070 12.37 9.9 1,210,750 119,864 149,817 (29,953) 81,487 1,408,398
2075 12.40 9.9 1,310,914 129,780 162,529 (32,749) 88,900 1,536,588
2080 12.38 9.9 1,419,270 140,508 175,747 (35,239) 97,051 1,677,869
2085 12.38 9.9 1,534,333 151,899 189,910 (38,011) 106,127 1,835,235
2090 12.44 9.9 1,654,761 163,821 205,779 (41,958) 116,089 2,007,528
2095 12.54 9.9 1,781,917 176,410 223,412 (47,002) 126,728 2,191,103

Table 12 Footnotes

Table footnote 1

For a given year, the value in 2019 constant dollars is equal to the corresponding value in current dollars divided by the cumulative projected increases in prices since 2019.

Return to Table footnote 1

Table footnote 2

Investment Income is net of all investment expenses.

Return to Table footnote 2

Over the period 2019 to 2021, contributions are projected to exceed expenditures for the base CPP. Thereafter, a small but increasing portion of investment income is required to cover the shortfall. This causes the total revenues (contributions and investment income) to continue to be higher than expenditures but to a lesser extent over the long term, which causes the assets to grow at a slower pace.

Table 13 shows in more detail the sources of the revenues required to cover the expenditures, from which several observations can be made:

  • During the period 2019 to 2021, contributions are more than sufficient to cover expenditures.

  • From 2022 onward, a portion of investment income is required to fund net cash outflows. It is project that in 2050, 23% of investment income is required to pay for expenditures.

  • Investment income, which is expected to represent 26% of revenues in 2019, is further projected to represent 34% of revenues in 2030 and 37% of revenues by 2050. This clearly illustrates the importance of investment income as a source of revenues for the base Plan.

Table 13 Sources of Revenues and Funding of Expenditures - Base CPP, 9.9% Legislated Contribution Rate ($ million)
Year Contributions Net Investment IncomeFootnote 1 Total Revenues Net Investment Income as % of Revenues
(%)
Expenditures Expenditures as % of Revenues
(%)
% of Net Investment Income Needed to Pay Expenditures
(%)
2019 51,675 18,335 70,010 26.2 49,291 70.4 0.0
2020 53,670 19,307 72,977 26.5 52,270 71.6 0.0
2021 55,756 24,159 79,915 30.2 55,004 68.8 0.0
2022 57,964 24,929 82,894 30.1 58,007 70.0 0.2
2023 60,128 26,648 86,775 30.7 61,188 70.5 4.0
2024 62,458 28,367 90,825 31.2 64,551 71.1 7.4
2025 64,899 29,315 94,214 31.1 68,052 72.2 10.8
2026 67,382 31,113 98,495 31.6 71,648 72.7 13.7
2027 70,003 34,283 104,286 32.9 75,305 72.2 15.5
2028 72,682 35,149 107,831 32.6 79,039 73.3 18.1
2029 75,477 37,993 113,470 33.5 82,867 73.0 19.5
2030 78,397 39,826 118,222 33.7 86,752 73.4 21.0
2031 81,419 41,704 123,124 33.9 90,667 73.6 22.2
2032 84,629 43,649 128,278 34.0 94,583 73.7 22.8
2033 87,990 45,673 133,663 34.2 98,526 73.7 23.1
2034 91,490 47,768 139,259 34.3 102,553 73.6 23.2
2035 95,097 49,959 145,057 34.4 106,684 73.5 23.2
2036 98,666 52,249 150,915 34.6 110,922 73.5 23.5
2037 102,432 54,639 157,071 34.8 115,248 73.4 23.5
2038 106,364 57,141 163,505 34.9 119,651 73.2 23.3
2039 110,382 59,782 170,164 35.1 124,167 73.0 23.1
2040 114,616 62,550 177,166 35.3 128,835 72.7 22.7
2041 118,957 65,463 184,420 35.5 133,676 72.5 22.5
2042 123,486 68,538 192,024 35.7 138,691 72.2 22.2
2043 128,247 71,775 200,023 35.9 143,907 71.9 21.8
2044 133,102 75,166 208,268 36.1 149,353 71.7 21.6
2045 138,091 78,719 216,810 36.3 155,045 71.5 21.5
2046 143,302 82,443 225,745 36.5 161,016 71.3 21.5
2047 148,607 86,341 234,948 36.7 167,279 71.2 21.6
2048 154,115 90,414 244,529 37.0 173,838 71.1 21.8
2049 159,696 94,662 254,359 37.2 180,720 71.0 22.2
2050 165,464 99,085 264,549 37.5 187,948 71.0 22.7
2055 196,781 123,788 320,569 38.6 229,568 71.6 26.5
2060 233,001 152,558 385,559 39.6 281,218 72.9 31.6
2065 276,148 185,432 461,580 40.2 342,009 74.1 35.5
2070 329,078 223,716 552,794 40.5 411,310 74.4 36.8
2075 393,386 269,472 662,858 40.7 492,653 74.3 36.8
2080 470,230 324,797 795,027 40.9 588,165 74.0 36.3
2085 561,263 392,136 953,399 41.1 701,711 73.6 35.8
2090 668,317 473,590 1,141,907 41.5 839,487 73.5 36.1
2095 794,577 570,803 1,365,379 41.8 1,006,280 73.7 37.1

Table 13 Footnotes

Table footnote 1

Investment income is net of all investment expenses.

Return to Table footnote 1

Chart 1 shows historical and projected revenues and expenditures of the base CPP for the period 2000 to 2050.

Chart 1 - Revenues and Expenditures - Base CPP, 9.9% legislated contribution rate (billions of 2019 constant dollars)

Chart 1
Description

Line chart showing the historical and projected base CPP’s revenues and expenditures using the 9.9% legislated contribution rate. Y axis represents billions of 2019 constant dollars. X axis represents the year.

Contributions are 19.9 in the year 2000, increase to 49.6 in 2018, and are projected to continue increasing to reach 89.6 in 2050.

Investment Income is 4.5 in 2000, increases overall to reach 28.4 in 2018, and is then projected to decrease in 2019 before increasing thereafter to reach 53.6 in 2050.

Total Revenues is 24.4 in 2000, increase overall to reach 78.0 in 2018, and are then projected to decrease in 2019 before increasing thereafter to reach 143.2 in 2050.

Expenditures is 19.7 in 2000, increase to 46.6 in 2018, and are projected to continue increasing to reach 101.7 in 2050.

4.5 Financial Projections with Minimum Contribution Rate

The results presented in Table 14 are based on the best-estimate assumptions, but use the MCR of 9.75% for 2022-2033 and 9.72% thereafter as opposed to the legislated contribution rate of 9.9% for 2022 and thereafter. The financial projections of the base Plan under the legislated rate of 9.9% were previously presented in Table 11. Under the MCR, the ratio of assets to the following year’s expenditures is projected to decrease slightly from 7.6 in 2022 to 7.5 in 2031 and to be the same fifty years later in 2081.

In the case that the MCR, as determined by an actuarial report, exceeds the legislated rate, the insufficient rates provisions of the CPP statute may result in adjustments to the base CPP legislated contribution rate and, perhaps, benefits in pay if the federal and provincial governments make no recommendation to either increase the legislated rate or maintain it. In respect of this 30th CPP Actuarial Report, the MCR is less than the legislated rate of 9.9%, and thus the insufficient rates provisions do not apply. Therefore, in the absence of specific action by the federal and provincial governments, the legislated contribution rate will remain at 9.9% for the year 2019 and thereafter.

Table 14 Financial Projections - Base CPP, Minimum Contribution Rate of 9.75% 2022-2033, 9.72% 2034+
Year PayGo
Rate (%)
Contribution
Rate (%)
Contributory
Earnings
($ million)
Contributions
($ million)
Expenditures
($ million)
Net Cash Flow
($ million)
Net Investment Income Table 14 Footnote 1
($ million)
Assets at 31 Dec.
($ million)
Assets/ Expenditures
Ratio
2019 9.44 9.90 521,967 51,675 49,291 2,383 18,335 392,419 7.5
2020 9.64 9.90 542,126 53,670 52,270 1,400 19,307 413,126 7.5
2021 9.77 9.90 563,194 55,756 55,004 752 24,159 438,037 7.6
2022 9.91 9.75 585,498 57,086 58,007 (920) 24,902 462,019 7.6
2023 10.07 9.75 607,349 59,216 61,188 (1,972) 26,568 486,615 7.5
2024 10.23 9.75 630,884 61,511 64,551 (3,040) 28,228 511,803 7.5
2025 10.38 9.75 655,541 63,915 68,052 (4,136) 29,117 536,784 7.5
2026 10.53 9.75 680,630 66,361 71,648 (5,286) 30,844 562,342 7.5
2027 10.65 9.75 707,105 68,943 75,305 (6,362) 33,922 589,902 7.5
2028 10.77 9.75 734,162 71,581 79,039 (7,458) 34,712 617,156 7.4
2029 10.87 9.75 762,391 74,333 82,867 (8,534) 37,449 646,071 7.4
2030 10.96 9.75 791,884 77,209 86,752 (9,544) 39,179 675,706 7.5
2031 11.02 9.75 822,419 80,186 90,667 (10,481) 40,945 706,170 7.5
2032 11.06 9.75 854,840 83,347 94,583 (11,236) 42,769 737,703 7.5
2033 11.09 9.75 888,788 86,657 98,526 (11,869) 44,661 770,495 7.5
2034 11.10 9.72 924,146 89,827 102,553 (12,726) 46,605 804,374 7.5
2035 11.11 9.72 960,579 93,368 106,684 (13,316) 48,623 839,681 7.6
2036 11.13 9.72 996,622 96,872 110,922 (14,050) 50,727 876,358 7.6
2037 11.14 9.72 1,034,670 100,570 115,248 (14,678) 52,915 914,595 7.6
2038 11.14 9.72 1,074,381 104,430 119,651 (15,221) 55,199 954,573 7.7
2039 11.14 9.72 1,114,968 108,375 124,167 (15,792) 57,605 996,386 7.7
2040 11.13 9.72 1,157,737 112,532 128,835 (16,303) 60,118 1,040,201 7.8
2041 11.13 9.72 1,201,584 116,794 133,676 (16,882) 62,758 1,086,077 7.8
2042 11.12 9.72 1,247,334 121,241 138,691 (17,450) 65,537 1,134,163 7.9
2043 11.11 9.72 1,295,428 125,916 143,907 (17,991) 68,456 1,184,628 7.9
2044 11.11 9.72 1,344,464 130,682 149,353 (18,671) 71,504 1,237,461 8.0
2045 11.12 9.72 1,394,863 135,581 155,045 (19,465) 74,688 1,292,684 8.0
2046 11.12 9.72 1,447,496 140,697 161,016 (20,320) 78,016 1,350,380 8.1
2047 11.14 9.72 1,501,085 145,905 167,279 (21,373) 81,487 1,410,494 8.1
2048 11.17 9.72 1,556,720 151,313 173,838 (22,525) 85,103 1,473,072 8.2
2049 11.20 9.72 1,613,094 156,793 180,720 (23,927) 88,860 1,538,005 8.2
2050 11.25 9.72 1,671,351 162,455 187,948 (25,492) 92,756 1,605,269 8.2
2055 11.55 9.72 1,987,685 193,203 229,568 (36,365) 114,202 1,974,373 8.3
2060 11.95 9.72 2,353,547 228,765 281,218 (52,454) 138,402 2,388,719 8.2
2065 12.26 9.72 2,789,376 271,127 342,009 (70,881) 164,915 2,841,877 8.0
2070 12.37 9.72 3,324,016 323,094 411,310 (88,216) 194,388 3,346,858 7.8
2075 12.40 9.72 3,973,597 386,234 492,653 (106,419) 227,986 3,922,967 7.7
2080 12.38 9.72 4,749,801 461,681 588,165 (126,484) 266,597 4,585,240 7.5
2085 12.38 9.72 5,669,320 551,058 701,711 (150,653) 311,042 5,346,716 7.4
2090 12.44 9.72 6,750,680 656,166 839,487 (183,321) 361,230 6,203,247 7.1
2095 12.54 9.72 8,026,025 780,130 1,006,280 (226,150) 415,863 7,130,703 6.8

Table 14 Footnotes

Table footnote 1

Investment income is net of all investment expenses.

Return to Table footnote 1

Table 15 shows the progression of the MCR over time under the best-estimate assumptions of this report.

As shown in Table 15, the MCR is relatively stable over the periods considered. If the best-estimate assumptions of this report are realized, the MCR will increase between 0.01% and 0.05% for each of the next four reports and will remain below the legislated contribution rate of 9.9%. Thus, the current legislated contribution rate is projected to be sufficient over subsequent reports as long as the best-estimate assumptions remain the same and base Plan experience does not deviate materially from the assumptions.

Table 15 Progression of Minimum Contribution Rate over Time – Base CPP
Valuation YearFootnote 1 Steady-State Target YearsFootnote 2 Steady-State Target A/E RatioFootnote 3 Steady-State Contribution RateFootnote 4 Full Funding RateFootnote 5 Minimum Contribution Rate (MCR)Footnote 6 Average PayGo Rate Over Target Years Period
Prior
to 2034
2034+ Prior
to 2034
2034+
2018 2031 and 2081 7.5 9.71% 0.04% 0.01% 9.75% 9.72% 11.7
2021 2034 and 2084 7.6 9.71% 0.04% 0.01% 9.75% 9.72% 11.8
2024 2037 and 2087 7.8 9.73% 0.04% 0.01% 9.77% 9.74% 11.9
2027 2040 and 2090 8.0 9.74% 0.05% 0.01% 9.79% 9.75% 11.9
2030 2043 and 2093 8.2 9.78% N/A N/AFootnote 7 N/A 9.78% 12.0

Table 15 Footnotes

Table footnote 1

Reports are prepared as at 31 December of the valuation year.

Return to Table footnote 1

Table footnote 2

Target years refer to the beginning and end of the 50-year interval over which the steady-state contribution rate is determined. This rate is the lowest level rate that results in the assets/expenditures (A/E) ratio being the same in the two target years. For a given triennial review period of the Plan, the target years are 13 and 63 years after the valuation year. For this report, the valuation year is 2018 and thus the target years are 2031 and 2081.

Return to Table footnote 2

Table footnote 3

The steady-state target A/E ratio is the ratio obtained in the target years relating to the determination of the corresponding steady-state contribution rate. Where the ratios in the target years do not match exactly, the ratio presented pertains to the first target year.

Return to Table footnote 3

Table footnote 4

The steady-state contribution rate determined by a valuation is effective following the corresponding triennial review period. That is, for the current valuation as at 31 December 2018, the corresponding triennial review period is 2019-2021, and the steady-state rate applies from 2022 onward.

Return to Table footnote 4

Table footnote 5

The full funding rate, in respect of amendments to the Canada Pension Plan that introduce or increase benefits, is determined by a valuation such that the rate is effective following the corresponding triennial review period, or as at the effective date of the amendments if later. For the current valuation, the full funding rate is in respect of the amendments to the CPP statute under Bill C-74 (Budget Implementation Act, 2018, No. 1), and the rate applies from 2022 onward. The full funding rates prior to 2034 shown in the table increase over time due to rounding of the rates as per the regulations.

Return to Table footnote 5

Table footnote 6

The minimum contribution rate equals the sum of the rounded steady-state contribution rate and the rounded full funding rate.

Return to Table footnote 6

Table footnote 7

The full funding rate for the 2030 valuation applies for the year 2034 and onward and as such consists only of the permanent rate with the temporary rate no longer applying, since the amortization of benefit improvements under Bill C-74 in respect of past Plan participation ends in 2033. The permanent full funding rate is determined to be 0.01%, which falls below the de minimis rate of 0.02% as set out in the regulations. As such, the rate is deemed to equal 0%, the benefit improvements of Bill C-74 in respect of future Plan participation are financed entirely by the steady-state contribution rate, and the MCR for 2034 and onward equals the steady-state contribution rate.

Return to Table footnote 7

5. Results – Additional CPP

5.1 Overview

The key observations and findings of the actuarial projections of the financial state of the additional CPP presented in this report are as follows.

  • With the legislated first and second additional contribution rates of 2.0% for 2023 and thereafter and 8.0% for 2024 and thereafter, respectively, contributions to the additional CPP are projected to be higher than expenditures up to the year 2057 inclusive.

  • With the legislated first and second additional contribution rates of 2.0% for 2023 and thereafter and 8.0% for 2024 and thereafter, total assets are expected to increase rapidly over the first several decades as contributions are projected to exceed expenditures. The additional CPP assets are projected to grow from $1.5 billion at the end of 2019 to $68 billion by 2025, $191 billion by 2030, $1.3 trillion by 2050, and $9.8 trillion by 2095. The ratio of assets to the following year’s expenditures is projected to increase rapidly until 2025 and then decrease after that, reaching a level of about 26 by 2075 and remaining at that level for the years following up to 2095.

  • Due to the financing approach of the additional Plan, investment income will become the major source of revenues of the additional Plan. With the legislated first and second additional contribution rates of 2.0% for 2023 and thereafter and 8.0% for 2024 and thereafter, investment income is projected to represent about 70% of revenues (i.e. contributions and investment income) of the additional CPP by 2075.

  • The first additional minimum contribution rate (FAMCR) applicable to pensionable earnings between the YBE and YMPE is 1.49% in 2022 and 1.98% for the year 2023 and thereafter. The second additional minimum contribution rate (SAMCR) applicable to pensionable earnings above the YMPE up to the YAMPE is 7.92% for the year 2024 and thereafter. The phased-in legislated first additional contribution rates of 0.3%, 0.6%, and 1.0% applies respectively to the first three years after the valuation year, that is, to the current triennial review period of 2019-2021.

  • Under the FAMCR of 1.98% for 2023 and thereafter and the SAMCR of 7.92% for 2024 and thereafter, the additional CPP open group assets represent 107% of its open group actuarial obligations as at 1 January 2019, and the ratio of invested assets to expenditures stabilizes at a value of 25 for the target years 2088 and 2098.

  • Although demographic experience over 2016 to 2018 was better than anticipated and acted to lower the AMCRs, changes in assumptions, especially those related to the CPPIB investment policy, and the amendments under Bills C-74 and C-97 have more than offset the decrease. As a result, the net result of all changes since the 28th CPP Actuarial Report is an overall absolute increase in the FAMCR of 0.05% and corresponding increase in the SAMCR of 0.20%.

  • Demographic changes affecting the base CPP, particularly the aging of the population, will also affect the additional Plan, but to a lesser extent than the base Plan due to the different financing approaches of the base and additional Plans.

  • The number of contributors to the additional CPP is the same as to the base CPP, since an individual cannot contribute to the additional Plan without also contributing to the base Plan. Under the legislated first and second additional contribution rates of 2.0% and 8.0%, respectively, additional contributions are expected to increase from $1.6 billion in 2019 to $17 billion in 2025, $43 billion in 2050, and to continue increasing thereafter.

  • The number of beneficiaries of additional retirement benefits is expected to increase from 0.2 million in 2019 to 1.8 million in 2025, 8.9 million in 2050, and to continue increasing thereafter.

  • Total additional CPP expenditures are expected to steadily grow over time as the additional Plan matures and individuals accrue benefits. Total additional CPP expenditures are projected to increase from approximately $85 million in 2020 to $1.7 billion in 2030, $28 billion in 2050, and $359 billion by 2095.

5.2 Contributions

Projected additional contributions are the product of the additional contribution rates, the number of contributors, and the average first and second additional contributory earnings. The first and second additional contribution rates for the additional CPP are set by law and are 2.0% for 2023 and thereafter and 8.0% for 2024 and thereafter. The first additional contribution rate is phased in over the period 2019 to 2023 as: 0.3%, 0.6%, 1.0%, 1.5%, and 2.0%, and the second tier of the additional Plan starts in 2024.

Table 16 presents the projected number of contributors to the additional CPP, including retirement beneficiaries who receive additional retirement benefits and are working (working beneficiaries), their additional contributory earnings, and additional contributions.

As all contributors to the additional Plan are contributors to the base Plan, the number of contributors to the additional Plan is linked to the same assumed labour force participation rates applied to the working-age population and the job creation rates as for the base Plan.

The additional contributory earnings relating to the first tier of the additional CPP are the same as the base CPP contributory earnings (pensionable earnings between the YBE and YMPE). As such, the projected total first additional contributory earnings shown in Table 16 are the same as the projected total base CPP contributory earnings shown in Table 4.

The second additional contributory earnings relating to pensionable earnings above the YMPE up to the YAMPE are based on the assumed annual increases in wages and the assumed proportion of individuals with pensionable earnings between the YMPE and YAMPE.

As shown in Table 16, total contributions to the additional CPP are expected to be $1.6 billion in 2019 and then are projected to increase to about $12.1 billion in 2023 following the phase-in of the first additional contribution rate. The total additional contributions are projected to reach $17.0 billion by 2025, following the full phase-in of the additional CPP. Thereafter, total contributions to the additional Plan continue to increase, reaching $43.0 billion by 2050.

The projected YMPE and YAMPE are also shown, which are assumed to increase with the nominal wage increase assumption, with the YAMPE equal to 107% of the YMPE in 2024 and 114% of the YMPE from 2025 onward (rounded down to the nearest $100). The YAMPE is projected to be $69,700 initially in 2024 and to then increase to $160,100 by 2050.

After the end of the phase-in period in 2025, the first and second additional contributions to the additional CPP increase at the same rate as the first and second additional contributory earnings, respectively, throughout the projection period. This growth is reflected in the projected total additional contributions.

Table 16 Contributions - Additional CPP
Year First Additional Contribution Rate
(%)
Second Additional Contribution Rate
(%)
YMPE
($)
YAMPE
($)
Number of Contributors
(thousands)
First Additional Contributory Earnings
($ million)
Second Additional Contributory Earnings
($ million)
Additional Contributions
($ million)
2019 0.3 57,400 14,528 521,967 1,566
2020 0.6 58,700 14,712 542,126 3,253
2021 1.0 60,200 14,869 563,194 5,632
2022 1.5 61,800 15,026 585,498 8,782
2023 2.0 63,400 15,152 607,349 12,147
2024 2.0 8.0 65,200 69,700 15,274 630,884 24,189 14,553
2025 2.0 8.0 67,100 76,400 15,391 655,541 48,363 16,980
2030 2.0 8.0 77,800 88,600 15,935 791,884 57,959 20,474
2035 2.0 8.0 90,200 102,800 16,599 960,579 70,032 24,814
2040 2.0 8.0 104,600 119,200 17,201 1,157,737 83,697 29,851
2045 2.0 8.0 121,200 138,100 17,854 1,394,863 100,221 35,915
2050 2.0 8.0 140,500 160,100 18,422 1,671,351 119,475 42,985
2055 2.0 8.0 162,900 185,700 18,855 1,987,685 141,782 51,096
2060 2.0 8.0 188,900 215,300 19,214 2,353,547 166,935 60,426
2065 2.0 8.0 219,000 249,600 19,606 2,789,376 197,054 71,552
2075 2.0 8.0 294,300 335,500 20,741 3,973,597 279,401 101,824
2085 2.0 8.0 395,500 450,800 21,989 5,669,320 396,260 145,087
2095 2.0 8.0 531,600 606,000 23,126 8,026,025 559,448 205,276

5.3 Expenditures

Under the additional CPP, there are only earnings-related benefits. There are no flat-rate components to the additional disability and survivor benefits, and no additional flat-rate children’s or death benefits.

The projected number of additional CPP beneficiaries by type of benefit is given in Table 17, while Table 18 presents information for male and female beneficiaries separately. The number of additional retirement beneficiaries increases over time as the number of contributors reaching age 60 (earliest retirement age) and over with at least one valid contribution to the additional CPP increases. The total number of retirement beneficiaries receiving additional retirement benefits is projected to increase from 182,000 in 2019 to 8.9 million by 2050.

The total number of disability and survivor beneficiaries receiving additional benefits increases over time as well. Since eligibility to these benefits is harmonized between the base and additional CPP, all new disability and survivor beneficiaries of the base CPP will also be entitled to additional benefits as long as they (in the case of disability beneficiaries) and their deceased partners (in the case of survivor beneficiaries) had made at least one contribution to the additional Plan. The total number of disability beneficiaries receiving additional benefits is projected to increase from 23,000 in 2019 to 541,000 in 2050. The total number of survivor beneficiaries receiving additional benefits is projected to increase from 15,000 to 1.6 million in 2050.

As the number of additional CPP retirement, disability, and survivor beneficiaries eventually becomes the same as those for the base CPP, the difference between female and male beneficiaries will likewise become equal.

Table 19 shows the amount of projected additional CPP expenditures by type. Projected additional benefit expenditures are low over the first few years of the additional Plan as additional benefits start to accrue. In 2019 and 2020, total expenditures are largely attributable to the operating expenses of the additional Plan. As higher additional benefits become payable to a greater number of beneficiaries, projected additional expenditures increase to reach $447 million in 2025 and $28 billion by 2050. Table 20 presents the same information but in 2019 constant dollars.

Table 17 Beneficiaries - Additional CPPTable 17 Footnote 1 (thousands)
Year RetirementTable 17 Footnote 2,Table 17 Footnote 3,Table 17 Footnote 4 DisabilityTable 17 Footnote 5 SurvivorTable 17 Footnote 4,Table 17 Footnote 5
2019 182 23 15
2020 409 50 33
2021 655 76 55
2022 917 102 78
2023 1,198 128 103
2024 1,490 153 131
2025 1,789 177 160
2030 3,290 276 343
2035 4,842 363 597
2040 6,310 438 912
2045 7,673 501 1,248
2050 8,935 541 1,552
2055 10,031 563 1,783
2060 10,950 567 1,943
2065 11,638 569 2,055
2075 12,553 614 2,245
2085 13,316 665 2,394
2095 14,269 699 2,432

Table 17 Footnotes

Table 17 Footnote 1

Numbers of beneficiaries by sex in Table 18 may not sum to total numbers of beneficiaries shown in Table 17 due to rounding.

Return to Table 17 footnote 1

Table 17 Footnote 2

The number given for retirement beneficiaries includes working beneficiaries.

Return to Table 17 footnote 2

Table 17 Footnote 3

The number given for retirement beneficiaries does not take into account that the retirement pension (base and additional benefits) can be shared between spouses.

Return to Table 17 footnote 3

Table 17 Footnote 4

A beneficiary who receives concurrently a retirement and a survivor’s benefit is counted in each category.

Return to Table 17 footnote 4

Table 17 Footnote 5

A beneficiary who receives concurrently a disability and survivor’s benefit is counted in each category.

Return to Table 17 footnote 5

Table 18 Beneficiaries by Sex – Additional CPPTable Footnote 1 (thousands)
Males Females
Year RetirementTable Footnote 2,Table Footnote 3,Table Footnote 4 DisabilityTable Footnote 5 SurvivorTable Footnote 4,Table Footnote 5 RetirementTable Footnote 2,Table Footnote 3,Table Footnote 4 DisabilityTable Footnote 5 SurvivorTable Footnote 4,Table Footnote 5
2019 95 12 5 87 12 10
2020 215 25 11 195 25 22
2021 343 38 18 312 38 36
2022 479 51 26 438 52 52
2023 624 63 34 574 65 69
2024 774 75 44 716 79 87
2025 927 86 53 863 92 107
2030 1,679 128 110 1,611 148 232
2035 2,414 162 183 2,428 200 414
2040 3,081 193 260 3,229 245 652
2045 3,682 220 328 3,991 281 920
2050 4,239 237 380 4,696 304 1,172
2055 4,736 246 415 5,295 317 1,368
2060 5,177 246 440 5,773 322 1,503
2065 5,514 244 459 6,124 325 1,596
2075 5,950 264 488 6,603 350 1,757
2085 6,316 287 500 7,000 378 1,894
2095 6,789 302 501 7,480 398 1,931

Table 18 Footnotes

Table 18 Footnote 1

Numbers of beneficiaries by sex in Table 18 may not sum to total numbers of beneficiaries shown in Table 17 due to rounding.

Return to Table 18 footnote 1

Table 18 Footnote 2

The number given for retirement beneficiaries includes working beneficiaries.

Return to Table 18 footnote 2

Table 18 Footnote 3

The number given for retirement beneficiaries does not take into account that the retirement pension (base and additional benefits) can be shared between spouses.

Return to Table 18 footnote 3

Table 18 Footnote 4

A beneficiary who receives concurrently a retirement and a survivor’s benefit is counted in each category.

Return to Table 18 footnote 4

Table 18 Footnote 5

A beneficiary who receives concurrently a disability and survivor’s benefit is counted in each category.

Return to Table 18 footnote 5

Table 19 Expenditures - Additional CPP ($ million)
Year RetirementTable footnote 191 Disability Survivor Operating ExpensesTable footnote 192 Total
2019 1 0 0 92 92
2020 9 0 0 76 85
2021 28 1 0 79 108
2022 64 3 1 81 149
2023 123 6 2 84 216
2024 216 12 3 87 318
2025 332 20 5 90 447
2026 475 31 8 94 608
2027 658 46 12 97 812
2028 884 64 17 101 1,066
2029 1,154 87 24 104 1,369
2030 1,464 112 32 108 1,717
2031 1,821 142 42 112 2,117
2032 2,232 175 54 116 2,577
2033 2,704 213 69 120 3,107
2034 3,246 256 87 125 3,713
2035 3,856 303 108 129 4,395
2036 4,534 354 132 134 5,153
2037 5,281 409 160 139 5,988
2038 6,099 469 192 144 6,903
2039 6,997 534 228 149 7,908
2040 7,988 604 270 154 9,016
2041 9,080 678 317 160 10,236
2042 10,281 757 370 166 11,574
2043 11,600 841 431 172 13,043
2044 13,050 930 498 178 14,656
2045 14,643 1,022 574 185 16,424
2046 16,392 1,118 659 192 18,361
2047 18,306 1,217 752 199 20,474
2048 20,390 1,319 857 206 22,772
2049 22,656 1,424 972 213 25,265
2050 25,117 1,531 1,098 220 27,967
2055 40,585 2,075 1,929 261 44,849
2060 61,753 2,568 3,144 308 67,772
2065 87,235 3,015 4,822 363 95,435
2070 114,901 3,610 7,039 430 125,981
2075 145,843 4,363 9,858 513 160,577
2080 180,661 5,281 13,261 612 199,815
2085 220,416 6,396 17,127 729 244,669
2090 267,394 7,640 21,260 867 297,162
2095 323,451 9,036 25,523 1,029 359,038

Table 19 Footnotes

Table 19 Footnote 1

Retirement expenditures include expenditures related to post-retirement benefits for working beneficiaries.

Return to Table 19 footnote 1

Table 19 Footnote 2

Plan operating expenses exclude CPPIB operating expenses, which are accounted for separately in the investment expenses assumption.

Return to Table 19 footnote 2

Table 20 Expenditures – Additional CPPTable 20 Footnote 1 (millions of 2019 constant dollars)
Year RetirementTable 20 Footnote 2 Disability Survivor Operating ExpensesTable 20 Footnote 3 Total
2019 1 0 0 92 92
2020 9 0 0 75 83
2021 27 1 0 76 104
2022 60 3 1 76 140
2023 114 6 2 78 200
2024 196 11 3 79 288
2025 295 18 4 80 397
2026 414 27 7 82 529
2027 562 39 10 83 693
2028 740 54 14 85 892
2029 947 71 20 85 1,123
2030 1,177 90 26 87 1,381
2031 1,436 112 33 88 1,669
2032 1,725 135 42 90 1,992
2033 2,049 161 52 91 2,355
2034 2,412 190 65 93 2,759
2035 2,809 221 79 94 3,202
2036 3,238 253 94 96 3,680
2037 3,698 286 112 97 4,193
2038 4,187 322 132 99 4,738
2039 4,709 359 153 100 5,322
2040 5,270 399 178 102 5,949
2041 5,873 439 205 103 6,621
2042 6,520 480 235 105 7,340
2043 7,212 523 268 107 8,109
2044 7,954 567 304 108 8,933
2045 8,750 611 343 111 9,815
2046 9,603 655 386 112 10,757
2047 10,515 699 432 114 11,760
2048 11,482 743 483 116 12,823
2049 12,508 786 537 118 13,948
2050 13,594 829 594 119 15,137
2055 19,896 1,017 946 128 21,986
2060 27,419 1,140 1,396 137 30,091
2065 35,082 1,212 1,939 146 38,380
2070 41,852 1,315 2,564 157 45,888
2075 48,114 1,439 3,252 169 52,975
2080 53,983 1,578 3,962 183 59,706
2085 59,653 1,731 4,635 197 66,217
2090 65,545 1,873 5,211 213 72,842
2095 71,812 2,006 5,667 228 79,713

Table 20 Footnotes

Table 20 Footnote 1

For a given year, the value in 2019 constant dollars is equal to the corresponding value in current dollars divided by the cumulative projected increases in prices since 2019.

Return to Table 20 footnote 1

Table 20 Footnote 2

Retirement expenditures include expenditures related to post-retirement benefits for working beneficiaries.

Return to Table 20 footnote 2

Table 20 Footnote 3

Plan operating expenses exclude CPPIB operating expenses, which are accounted for separately in the investment expenses assumption.

Return to Table 20 footnote 3

5.4 Financial Projections with Legislated Additional Contribution Rates

Table 21 and Table 22 present the projected financial state of the additional CPP using the legislated first and second additional contribution rates of 2.0% and 8.0% in current dollars and in 2019 constant dollars, respectively. The projected financial state of the additional CPP using the FAMCR and SAMCR of 1.98% and 7.92%, respectively is discussed in the next section 5.5.

Under the legislated additional contribution rates, additional contributions are projected to be higher than additional expenditures up to the year 2057 inclusive. Over that period, the additional assets are projected to grow rapidly, from $1.5 billion at the end of 2019 to $68 billion by 2025, $191 billion by 2030, and $1,284 billion by 2050.

In comparison with Table 11, additional CPP assets are projected to be 75% of base CPP assets by 2050, and this percentage is expected to further increase to 99% by 2095. The substantially better than expected investment experience of the base Plan over the previous three years and thus higher than expected level of base CPP assets as at the end of 2018, together with the decrease in the assumed best-estimate rates of return on the additional CPP assets, lead to projected base CPP assets exceeding the additional CPP assets over the entire projection period.

Table 21 Financial Projections - Additional CPP, 2.0%, 8.0% Legislated First and Second Additional Contribution Rates
Year First / Second Additional Contribution Rates Table footnote 21 1
(%)
First
Additional Contributory Earnings
($ million)
Second
Additional Contributory Earnings
($ million)
Contributions
($ million)
Expenditures
($ million)
Net
Cash Flow
($ million)
Net Investment IncomeTable footnote 212
($ million)
Assets at
31 Dec.
($ million)
Net Rate
of Return Table footnote 212
(%)
Assets/ Expenditures Ratio
2019 0.3 521,967 0 1,566 92 1,474 11 1,485 1.31 17.4
2020 0.6 542,126 0 3,253 85 3,167 77 4,729 2.36 43.7
2021 1.0 563,194 0 5,632 108 5,524 333 10,586 4.27 70.9
2022 1.5 585,498 0 8,782 149 8,633 673 19,893 4.37 92.2
2023 2.0 607,349 0 12,147 216 11,931 1,188 33,012 4.48 103.9
2024 2.0 / 8.0 630,884 24,189 14,553 318 14,235 1,877 49,124 4.59 109.9
2025 2.0 / 8.0 655,541 48,363 16,980 447 16,533 2,735 68,392 4.69 112.5
2026 2.0 / 8.0 680,630 50,231 17,631 608 17,023 3,731 89,146 4.79 109.8
2027 2.0 / 8.0 707,105 52,104 18,310 812 17,498 5,219 111,863 5.28 105.0
2028 2.0 / 8.0 734,162 54,076 19,009 1,066 17,944 6,445 136,252 5.29 99.5
2029 2.0 / 8.0 762,391 56,025 19,730 1,369 18,361 8,175 162,788 5.58 94.8
2030 2.0 / 8.0 791,884 57,959 20,474 1,717 18,758 9,670 191,216 5.58 90.3
2031 2.0 / 8.0 822,419 60,505 21,289 2,117 19,172 11,270 221,658 5.58 86.0
2032 2.0 / 8.0 854,840 62,590 22,104 2,577 19,527 12,982 254,167 5.58 81.8
2033 2.0 / 8.0 888,788 64,684 22,950 3,107 19,844 14,808 288,819 5.58 77.8
2034 2.0 / 8.0 924,146 67,288 23,866 3,713 20,153 16,754 325,726 5.58 74.1
2035 2.0 / 8.0 960,579 70,032 24,814 4,395 20,419 18,825 364,970 5.58 70.8
2036 2.0 / 8.0 996,622 72,662 25,745 5,153 20,592 21,024 406,586 5.58 67.9
2037 2.0 / 8.0 1,034,670 74,830 26,680 5,988 20,692 23,353 450,631 5.58 65.3
2038 2.0 / 8.0 1,074,381 78,070 27,733 6,903 20,830 25,820 497,281 5.58 62.9
2039 2.0 / 8.0 1,114,968 80,924 28,773 7,908 20,865 28,429 546,575 5.58 60.6
2040 2.0 / 8.0 1,157,737 83,697 29,851 9,016 20,834 31,184 598,593 5.58 58.5
2041 2.0 / 8.0 1,201,584 86,618 30,961 10,236 20,725 34,089 653,407 5.58 56.5
2042 2.0 / 8.0 1,247,334 90,125 32,157 11,574 20,582 37,150 711,139 5.58 54.5
2043 2.0 / 8.0 1,295,428 93,564 33,394 13,043 20,350 40,371 771,861 5.58 52.7
2044 2.0 / 8.0 1,344,464 96,618 34,619 14,656 19,963 43,756 835,580 5.58 50.9
2045 2.0 / 8.0 1,394,863 100,221 35,915 16,424 19,491 47,306 902,377 5.58 49.1
2046 2.0 / 8.0 1,447,496 103,743 37,249 18,361 18,889 51,024 972,290 5.58 47.5
2047 2.0 / 8.0 1,501,085 107,966 38,659 20,474 18,185 54,914 1,045,389 5.58 45.9
2048 2.0 / 8.0 1,556,720 111,554 40,059 22,772 17,287 58,977 1,121,653 5.58 44.4
2049 2.0 / 8.0 1,613,094 115,289 41,485 25,265 16,220 63,213 1,201,086 5.58 42.9
2050 2.0 / 8.0 1,671,351 119,475 42,985 27,967 15,018 67,622 1,283,725 5.58 41.6
2055 2.0 / 8.0 1,987,685 141,782 51,096 44,849 6,247 92,278 1,744,760 5.58 35.6
2060 2.0 / 8.0 2,353,547 166,935 60,426 67,772 (7,347) 121,178 2,283,364 5.58 31.3
2065 2.0 / 8.0 2,789,376 197,054 71,552 95,435 (23,883) 154,354 2,901,110 5.58 28.6
2070 2.0 / 8.0 3,324,016 234,030 85,203 125,981 (40,778) 192,670 3,615,675 5.58 27.3
2075 2.0 / 8.0 3,973,597 279,401 101,824 160,577 (58,753) 237,549 4,453,573 5.58 26.5
2080 2.0 / 8.0 4,749,801 332,684 121,611 199,815 (78,204) 290,620 5,445,382 5.58 26.1
2085 2.0 / 8.0 5,669,320 396,260 145,087 244,669 (99,581) 353,940 6,629,755 5.58 26.1
2090 2.0 / 8.0 6,750,680 470,912 172,687 297,162 (124,475) 429,898 8,050,972 5.58 26.1
2095 2.0 / 8.0 8,026,025 559,448 205,276 359,038 (153,762) 521,174 9,759,199 5.58 26.2

Table 21 Footnotes

Table 21 Footnote 1

The legislated second additional contribution rate is applicable from the year 2024 onward.

Return to Table 21 footnote 1

Table 21 Footnote 2

Rates of Return and Investment Income are net of all investment expenses.

Return to Table 21 footnote 2

Table 22 Financial Projections - Additional CPP, 2.0%, 8.0% Legislated First and Second Additional Contribution Rates
(millions of 2019 constant dollars)Table 22 footnote1
Year First / Second Additional Contribution RatesTable 22 footnote2
(%)
First Additional Contributory Earnings
($ million)
Second Additional Contributory Earnings
($ million)
Contributions
($ million)
Expenditures
($ million)
Net Cash Flow
($ million)
Net Investment IncomeTable 22 footnote3
($ million)
Assets at 31 Dec.
($ million)
2019 0.3 521,967 0 1,566 92 1,474 11 1,485
2020 0.6 531,496 0 3,189 84 3,105 76 4,636
2021 1.0 541,324 0 5,413 104 5,309 320 10,175
2022 1.5 551,728 0 8,276 141 8,135 634 18,745
2023 2.0 561,096 0 11,222 199 11,023 1,098 30,498
2024 2.0 / 8.0 571,411 21,909 13,181 288 12,893 1,700 44,493
2025 2.0 / 8.0 582,102 42,945 15,078 397 14,681 2,429 60,730
2026 2.0 / 8.0 592,530 43,729 15,349 529 14,820 3,248 77,607
2027 2.0 / 8.0 603,508 44,471 15,628 693 14,935 4,454 95,474
2028 2.0 / 8.0 614,314 45,249 15,906 892 15,014 5,393 114,009
2029 2.0 / 8.0 625,426 45,960 16,185 1,123 15,063 6,707 133,543
2030 2.0 / 8.0 636,883 46,614 16,467 1,381 15,086 7,777 153,788
2031 2.0 / 8.0 648,471 47,708 16,786 1,669 15,117 8,887 174,776
2032 2.0 / 8.0 660,819 48,384 17,087 1,992 15,095 10,036 196,479
2033 2.0 / 8.0 673,590 49,022 17,394 2,354 15,039 11,223 218,889
2034 2.0 / 8.0 686,654 49,996 17,733 2,759 14,974 12,449 242,019
2035 2.0 / 8.0 699,729 51,015 18,076 3,202 14,874 13,713 265,861
2036 2.0 / 8.0 711,750 51,892 18,386 3,680 14,706 15,015 290,369
2037 2.0 / 8.0 724,434 52,393 18,680 4,193 14,488 16,351 315,514
2038 2.0 / 8.0 737,489 53,589 19,037 4,738 14,299 17,723 341,349
2039 2.0 / 8.0 750,342 54,460 19,364 5,322 14,041 19,132 367,829
2040 2.0 / 8.0 763,847 55,221 19,695 5,949 13,746 20,574 394,937
2041 2.0 / 8.0 777,232 56,028 20,027 6,621 13,406 22,050 422,649
2042 2.0 / 8.0 791,004 57,153 20,392 7,340 13,052 23,559 450,973
2043 2.0 / 8.0 805,395 58,171 20,762 8,109 12,652 25,100 479,883
2044 2.0 / 8.0 819,493 58,892 21,101 8,933 12,168 26,671 509,312
2045 2.0 / 8.0 833,541 59,890 21,462 9,814 11,648 28,269 539,242
2046 2.0 / 8.0 848,033 60,779 21,823 10,757 11,066 29,893 569,628
2047 2.0 / 8.0 862,185 62,013 22,205 11,760 10,445 31,541 600,445
2048 2.0 / 8.0 876,608 62,817 22,558 12,823 9,735 33,211 631,617
2049 2.0 / 8.0 890,542 63,648 22,903 13,948 8,955 34,898 663,084
2050 2.0 / 8.0 904,612 64,665 23,265 15,137 8,129 36,600 694,811
2055 2.0 / 8.0 974,409 69,505 25,049 21,986 3,062 45,237 855,322
2060 2.0 / 8.0 1,044,999 74,121 26,830 30,092 (3,262) 53,804 1,013,837
2065 2.0 / 8.0 1,121,758 79,246 28,775 38,380 (9,605) 62,074 1,166,692
2070 2.0 / 8.0 1,210,750 85,244 31,034 45,888 (14,853) 70,179 1,316,985
2075 2.0 / 8.0 1,310,914 92,176 33,592 52,975 (19,383) 78,369 1,469,261
2080 2.0 / 8.0 1,419,270 99,408 36,338 59,706 (23,368) 86,839 1,627,114
2085 2.0 / 8.0 1,534,333 107,243 39,266 66,217 (26,950) 95,790 1,794,263
2090 2.0 / 8.0 1,654,761 115,432 42,330 72,842 (30,512) 105,379 1,973,496
2095 2.0 / 8.0 1,781,917 124,207 45,575 79,713 (34,138) 115,710 2,166,712

Table 22 Footnotes

Table 22 Footnote 1

For a given year, the value in 2019 constant dollars is equal to the corresponding value in current dollars divided by the cumulative projected increases in prices since 2019.

Return to Table 22 footnote 1

Table 22 Footnote 2

The legislated second additional contribution rate is applicable from the year 2024 onward.

Return to Table 22 footnote 2

Table 22 Footnote 3

Investment Income is net of all investment expenses.

Return to Table 22 footnote 3

Table 23 shows the sources of the revenues (contributions and investment income) required to cover the additional CPP expenditures. With the growth in the additional assets, the importance of the investment income increases rapidly. By 2075, investment income is projected to represent about 70% of revenues of the additional CPP. The importance of investment income as a source of revenues is directly related to the financing approach of the additional CPP.

A strong reliance of the additional CPP on investment income as a source of revenues results in the additional contribution rates being much more sensitive to financial market environments than is the case for the base CPP. The sensitivity of the base and additional CPP to investment experience is examined in Appendix E of this report.

Chart 2 shows projected revenues and expenditures of the additional CPP for the period 2019 to 2069.

Chart 2 - Revenues and Expenditures - Additional CPP, 2.0%/8.0% legislated contribution rates (billions of 2019 constant dollars)

Chart 2
Description

Line chart showing the projected additional CPP’s revenues and expenditures by using 2.0% and 8.0% legislated contribution rates. Y axis represents billions of 2019 constant dollars. X axis represents the year.

Contributions start at 1.6 in 2019 and are projected to increase to 30.6 in 2069.

Investment Income starts from 0 in 2019 and grows to a projected 68.5 in 2069.

Total Revenues, which equals the sum of contributions and investment income, start at 1.6 in 2019 and are projected to be 99.1 in 2069.

Expenditures start at 0 in 2019 and are projected to increase to 44.4 in 2069.

Table 23 also shows the projected additional CPP expenditures as a percentage of total additional revenues. This percentage is projected to increase as the additional Plan matures from about 2% in 2022 to 10% in 2035. It continues to grow but at decreasing pace, and stabilizes at about 49% by 2095.

Table 23 Sources of Revenues - Additional CPP ($ million)
Year Contributions Net Investment IncomeTable footnote 231 Total Revenues Net Investment Income as % of Revenues
(%)
Expenditures Expenditures as % of Revenues
(%)
% of Net Investment Income Needed to Pay Expenditures
(%)
2019 1,566 11 1,577 0.7 92 5.8 0.0
2020 3,253 77 3,330 2.3 85 2.6 0.0
2021 5,632 333 5,965 5.6 108 1.8 0.0
2022 8,782 673 9,456 7.1 149 1.6 0.0
2023 12,147 1,188 13,335 8.9 216 1.6 0.0
2024 14,553 1,877 16,430 11.4 318 1.9 0.0
2025 16,980 2,735 19,715 13.9 447 2.3 0.0
2026 17,631 3,731 21,362 17.5 608 2.8 0.0
2027 18,310 5,219 23,529 22.2 812 3.5 0.0
2028 19,009 6,445 25,455 25.3 1,066 4.2 0.0
2029 19,730 8,175 27,905 29.3 1,369 4.9 0.0
2030 20,474 9,670 30,144 32.1 1,717 5.7 0.0
2031 21,289 11,270 32,559 34.6 2,117 6.5 0.0
2032 22,104 12,982 35,086 37.0 2,577 7.3 0.0
2033 22,950 14,808 37,759 39.2 3,107 8.2 0.0
2034 23,866 16,754 40,620 41.2 3,713 9.1 0.0
2035 24,814 18,825 43,639 43.1 4,395 10.1 0.0
2036 25,745 21,024 46,769 45.0 5,153 11.0 0.0
2037 26,680 23,353 50,033 46.7 5,988 12.0 0.0
2038 27,733 25,820 53,553 48.2 6,903 12.9 0.0
2039 28,773 28,429 57,202 49.7 7,908 13.8 0.0
2040 29,851 31,184 61,034 51.1 9,016 14.8 0.0
2041 30,961 34,089 65,050 52.4 10,236 15.7 0.0
2042 32,157 37,150 69,307 53.6 11,574 16.7 0.0
2043 33,394 40,371 73,765 54.7 13,043 17.7 0.0
2044 34,619 43,756 78,375 55.8 14,656 18.7 0.0
2045 35,915 47,306 83,221 56.8 16,424 19.7 0.0
2046 37,249 51,024 88,274 57.8 18,361 20.8 0.0
2047 38,659 54,914 93,573 58.7 20,474 21.9 0.0
2048 40,059 58,977 99,036 59.6 22,772 23.0 0.0
2049 41,485 63,213 104,698 60.4 25,265 24.1 0.0
2050 42,985 67,622 110,607 61.1 27,967 25.3 0.0
2055 51,096 92,278 143,374 64.4 44,849 31.3 0.0
2060 60,426 121,178 181,604 66.7 67,772 37.3 6.1
2065 71,552 154,354 225,906 68.3 95,435 42.2 15.5
2070 85,203 192,670 277,873 69.3 125,981 45.3 21.2
2075 101,824 237,549 339,373 70.0 160,577 47.3 24.7
2080 121,611 290,620 412,230 70.5 199,815 48.5 26.9
2085 145,087 353,940 499,027 70.9 244,669 49.0 28.1
2090 172,687 429,898 602,585 71.3 297,162 49.3 29.0
2095 205,276 521,174 726,450 71.7 359,038 49.4 29.5

Table 23 Footnotes

Table 23 Footnote 1

Investment Income is net of all investment expenses.

Return to Table 23 footnote 1

5.5 Financial Projections with Additional Minimum Contribution Rates

The results presented in Table 24 are based on the best-estimate assumptions, but use the FAMCR of 1.98% for 2023 and thereafter and SAMCR of 7.92% for 2024 and thereafter as opposed to the legislated first and second additional contribution rates of 2.0% and 8.0%, respectively. The financial projections of the additional Plan under the legislated rates were previously presented in Table 21. Under the AMCRs, the additional CPP open group assets represent 107% of its open group actuarial obligations as at 1 January 2019, and the ratio of invested assets to expenditures stabilizes at a value of 25 for the target years 2088 and 2098.

Table 25 shows the progression of the additional minimum contribution rates over time under the best-estimate assumptions of this report. As shown in Table 25, if the best-estimate assumptions of this report are realized, the FAMCR and SAMCR will remain at about 1.98% and 7.92%, respectively for each of the next four reports, which are below and very close to the legislated additional contribution rates of 2.0% and 8.0%. Thus, the current legislated additional contribution rates are projected to be sufficient over subsequent reports as long as the best-estimate assumptions remain the same and additional Plan experience does not deviate materially from the assumptions.

In the event that the AMCRs, as determined under a CPP actuarial report, deviate to a certain extent from their respective legislated additional rates and the federal and provincial Ministers of Finance do not reach an agreement on how to address such deviation, certain provisions of the Additional Canada Pension Plan Sustainability Regulations would be activated. The deviation in the rates is quantified in the regulations with respect to both the magnitude (absolute basis points difference between the legislated rates and AMCRs) and duration of time that a deviation exists. In such case, adjustments would be made to current and future benefits and possibly to the contribution rates. In respect of this 30th CPP Actuarial Report, the AMCRs do not deviate materially from their respective legislated rates, and thus the provisions under the sustainability regulations do not apply. Therefore, in the absence of specific action by the federal and provincial governments, the legislated additional contribution rates will remain as scheduled.

Table 24 Financial Projections - Additional CPP, First and Second Additional Minimum Contribution Rates of 1.98% / 7.92%
Year First / Second Additional Contribution RatesTable footnote 241
(%)
First Additional Contributory Earnings
($ million)
Second Additional Contributory Earnings
($ million)
Contributions
($ million)
Expenditures
($ million)
Net Cash Flow
($ million)
Net Investment IncomeTable footnote 242
($ million)
Assets at
31 Dec.
($ million)
Assets/ Expenditures Ratio
2019 0.30 521,967 0 1,566 92 1,474 11 1,485 17.4
2020 0.60 542,126 0 3,253 85 3,167 77 4,729 43.7
2021 1.00 563,194 0 5,632 108 5,524 333 10,586 70.9
2022 1.49 585,498 0 8,724 149 8,575 672 19,833 92.0
2023 1.98 607,349 0 12,026 216 11,810 1,182 32,825 103.3
2024 1.98 / 7.92 630,884 24,189 14,407 318 14,089 1,865 48,779 109.1
2025 1.98 / 7.92 655,541 48,363 16,810 447 16,363 2,714 67,857 111.6
2026 1.98 / 7.92 680,630 50,231 17,455 608 16,847 3,701 88,404 108.9
2027 1.98 / 7.92 707,105 52,104 18,127 812 17,315 5,174 110,893 104.0
2028 1.98 / 7.92 734,162 54,076 18,819 1,066 17,753 6,388 135,035 98.7
2029 1.98 / 7.92 762,391 56,025 19,533 1,369 18,164 8,101 161,300 94.0
2030 1.98 / 7.92 791,884 57,959 20,270 1,717 18,553 9,580 189,434 89.5
2031 1.98 / 7.92 822,419 60,505 21,076 2,117 18,959 11,164 219,557 85.2
2032 1.98 / 7.92 854,840 62,590 21,883 2,577 19,306 12,858 251,721 81.0
2033 1.98 / 7.92 888,788 64,684 22,721 3,107 19,614 14,665 286,000 77.0
2034 1.98 / 7.92 924,146 67,288 23,627 3,713 19,914 16,590 322,504 73.4
2035 1.98 / 7.92 960,579 70,032 24,566 4,395 20,171 18,638 361,312 70.1
2036 1.98 / 7.92 996,622 72,662 25,488 5,153 20,335 20,812 402,459 67.2
2037 1.98 / 7.92 1,034,670 74,830 26,413 5,988 20,425 23,115 445,999 64.6
2038 1.98 / 7.92 1,074,381 78,070 27,456 6,903 20,553 25,553 492,105 62.2
2039 1.98 / 7.92 1,114,968 80,924 28,486 7,908 20,577 28,131 540,813 60.0
2040 1.98 / 7.92 1,157,737 83,697 29,552 9,016 20,536 30,853 592,202 57.9
2041 1.98 / 7.92 1,201,584 86,618 30,652 10,236 20,416 33,723 646,340 55.8
2042 1.98 / 7.92 1,247,334 90,125 31,835 11,574 20,261 36,746 703,347 53.9
2043 1.98 / 7.92 1,295,428 93,564 33,060 13,043 20,016 39,926 763,290 52.1
2044 1.98 / 7.92 1,344,464 96,618 34,273 14,656 19,617 43,267 826,174 50.3
2045 1.98 / 7.92 1,394,863 100,221 35,556 16,424 19,132 46,770 892,076 48.6
2046 1.98 / 7.92 1,447,496 103,743 36,877 18,361 18,516 50,438 961,030 46.9
2047 1.98 / 7.92 1,501,085 107,966 38,272 20,474 17,798 54,274 1,033,102 45.4
2048 1.98 / 7.92 1,556,720 111,554 39,658 22,772 16,886 58,279 1,108,268 43.9
2049 1.98 / 7.92 1,613,094 115,289 41,070 25,265 15,805 62,453 1,186,526 42.4
2050 1.98 / 7.92 1,671,351 119,475 42,555 27,967 14,588 66,796 1,267,911 41.0
2055 1.98 / 7.92 1,987,685 141,782 50,585 44,849 5,736 91,049 1,721,272 35.2
2060 1.98 / 7.92 2,353,547 166,935 59,821 67,772 (7,951) 119,392 2,249,304 30.8
2065 1.98 / 7.92 2,789,376 197,054 70,836 95,435 (24,599) 151,807 2,852,585 28.2
2070 1.98 / 7.92 3,324,016 234,030 84,351 125,981 (41,630) 189,085 3,547,455 26.8
2075 1.98 / 7.92 3,973,597 279,401 100,806 160,577 (59,771) 232,557 4,358,630 25.9
2080 1.98 / 7.92 4,749,801 332,684 120,395 199,815 (79,420) 283,724 5,314,323 25.5
2085 1.98 / 7.92 5,669,320 396,260 143,636 244,669 (101,032) 344,480 6,450,056 25.3
2088 1.98 / 7.92 6,297,356 440,079 159,542 275,127 (115,585) 386,433 7,234,526 25.3
2090 1.98 / 7.92 6,750,680 470,912 170,960 297,162 (126,202) 416,994 7,805,978 25.3
2095 1.98 / 7.92 8,026,025 559,448 203,224 359,038 (155,815) 503,659 9,426,798 25.3
2098 1.98 / 7.92 8,905,491 620,187 225,448 401,345 (175,898) 563,654 10,549,067 25.3

Table 24 Footnotes

Table 24 Footnote 1

The second additional minimum contribution rate is applicable from the year 2024 onward.

Return to Table 24 footnote 1

Table 24 Footnote 2

Investment Income is net of all investment expenses.

Return to Table 24 footnote 2

Table 25 Progression of Additional Minimum Contribution Rates over Time
Valuation
YearTable 25 Footnote 1
Target
YearsTable 25 Footnote 2
Target A/E RatioTable 25 Footnote 3 Additional Minimum Contribution Rates Years Additional Minimum Contribution Rates
ApplicableTable 25 Footnote 4
Assets as a % of Obligations on an Open Group BasisTable 25 Footnote 5
2018 2088 and 2098 25.2 1.98%/7.92% 2023+, 2024+ 106.8%
2021 2088 and 2098 25.2 1.98%/7.92% 2025+ 106.4%
2024 2088 and 2098 25.2 1.97%/7.88% 2028+ 105.6%
2027 2088 and 2098 25.2 1.97%/7.88% 2031+ 105.3%
2030 2088 and 2098 25.3 1.97%/7.88% 2034+ 105.1%

Table 25 Footnotes

Table 25 Footnote 1

Reports are prepared as at 31 December of the valuation year.

Return to Table 25 footnote 1

Table 25 Footnote 2

Target years refer to the beginning and end of the 10-year interval that are used to determine the FAMCR and SAMCR. These rates are the lowest level rates that result in the assets/expenditures (A/E) ratio being the same in the two target years. For a given triennial review period of the Plan, the target years are 53 and 63 years after the valuation year, but occurring no earlier than 2088 and 2098. For this and all reports with valuation years before 2036, the target years are 2088 to 2098. The AMCRs must also satisfy a full funding condition as described in note (5) below.

Return to Table 25 footnote 2

Table 25 Footnote 3

The target A/E ratio is the ratio obtained in the target years relating to the determination of the corresponding AMCRs.

Return to Table 25 footnote 3

Table 25 Footnote 4

The FAMCR equals 1.49% for the year 2022. The legislated first additional contribution rate applies to the current triennial review period 2019-2021. More generally, the legislated first and second additional contribution rates apply for each triennial review period following a valuation year.

Return to Table 25 footnote 4

Table 25 Footnote 5

The AMCRs must satisfy the condition that the present value of projected additional expenditures equals the projected additional assets and present value of projected additional contributions. In other words, the total assets must equal 100% of the obligations of the additional Plan. As shown, this condition is projected to be met over successive valuations, under the best-estimate assumptions of this report.

Return to Table 25 footnote 5

6. Reconciliation with Previous Triennial Report

6.1 Base CPP

6.1.1 Introduction

The results presented in this report differ from those previously projected for a variety of reasons. Differences between the actual experience for 2016 through 2018 and that projected in the 27th CPP Actuarial Report are addressed in section 6.1.2 below. Since historical results provide the starting point for the projections shown in this report, these historical differences between actual and projected experience have an effect on the projections. The impact of experience since the last triennial valuation of the base Plan (that is, the experience update from the period 2016-2018) and changes in the assumptions and methodology on the base CPP minimum contribution rate are addressed in section 6.1.3. Detailed reconciliations of the projected pay-as-you-go rates and the minimum contribution rate are presented in Appendix D.

6.1.2 Experience Update – 31 December 2015 to 31 December 2018

The major components of the change in the base CPP assets from 31 December 2015 to 31 December 2018 are summarized in Table 26.

Contributions during the period 2016 to 2018 were about $234 million lower than expected, mainly as a result of lower than anticipated growth in total employment earnings. This represents a deviation from the expected results of about -0.2%.

Expenditures during the period were $1.9 billion lower than expected. This represents a deviation from the expected results of about -1.4%. The difference between actual and expected expenditures is due to over-projections of retirement benefits (lower take-up of retirement benefits at age 60 than expected), disability benefits (lower disability incidence rates than expected), survivor benefits and operating expenses that outweigh under-projections of death and children benefits. The details by type of expenditure are given in Table 27.

Due to the strong investment performance over the period (actual average annual nominal rate of return of 7.9% compared to the anticipated 3.9%), investment income was $39.3 billion higher than expected. This represents a deviation from the expected results of about 107%. As a result, the change in assets was $86 billion or 90% higher than expected over the period. The resulting assets as at 31 December 2018 are about $41 billion or 12% higher than projected under the 27th CPP Actuarial Report.

Table 26 Change in Assets - 31 December 2015 to 31 December 2018 - Base CPPTable 26 Footnote 1
(cost accrual basis, $ million)
Actual ExpectedTable 26 Footnote 2 Difference % Change
Actual – Expected Difference/ Expected
Assets at 31 December 2015 285,358 285,358 - -
+ Contributions 144,226 144,460 (234) (0.2)%
- Expenditures 133,748 135,680 (1,932) (1.4)%
+ Investment Income 75,865 36,583 39,282 107.4%
Change in Assets 86,342 45,363 40,979 90.3%
Assets at 31 December 2018 371,700 330,721 40,979 12.4%

Table 26 Footnotes

Table 26 Footnote 1

Components may not sum to totals due to rounding.

Return to Table 26 footnote 1

Table 26 Footnote 2

Expected expenditures shown are as per the projections of the 27th CPP Actuarial Report as at 31 December 2015.

Return to Table 26 footnote 2

Table 27 Summary of Expenditures – 2016 to 2018 – Base CPPTable 27 Footnote 1 ($ million)
Actual ExpectedTable 27 Footnote 2 Difference % Change
Actual – Expected Difference/ Expected
Retirement 103,628 105,107 (1,479) (1.4)%
Disability 12,248 12,554 (306) (2.5)%
Survivors 13,420 13,559 (139) (1.0)%
Children 1,569 1,534 35 2.2%
Death 1,079 1,020 59 5.5%
Operating Expenses 1,804 1,906 (102) (5.7)%
Total Expenditures 133,748 135,680 (1,932) (1.4)%

Table 27 Footnotes

Table 27 Footnote 1

Components may not sum to totals due to rounding.

Return to Table 27 footnote 1

Table 27 Footnote 2

Expected expenditures shown are as per the projections of the 27th CPP Actuarial Report as at 31 December 2015.

Return to Table 27 footnote 2

6.1.3 Changes in the Minimum Contribution Rate

Table 28 presents the main elements of change in the base Plan MCR since the 27th CPP Actuarial Report and shows an overall decrease in the rate. The cost impacts of the amendments introduced under Bill C-74 – Budget Implementation Act, 2018, No. 1 were determined in the 29th CPP Actuarial Report. It was determined under that report that the amendments had the effect of triggering the full funding provision of the CPP statute and introducing full funding rates, which increased the MCR. Bill C-97 – Budget Implementation Act, 2019, No. 1, which waives the application for the retirement pension upon reaching age 70, also had the effect of increasing the MCR. Since Bill C-97 does not involve a benefit improvement, it does not trigger the full funding provision of the CPP statute.

Experience over the period 2016 to 2018 was better than anticipated overall, especially regarding investment income, which lowers the MCR. Changes made to the demographic assumptions also act to lower the MCR. However, these reductions in the rate are partially offset by lower assumed real wage increases, changes to the assumed retirement take-up rates, assumed disability incidence rates, and investment assumptions. A more detailed reconciliation of changes in the MCR is provided in Table 106 in Appendix D of this report.

Table 28 Reconciliation of Changes in Minimum Contribution RateTable 28 Footnote 1
(% of base CPP contributory earnings)
Steady-State Rate Full Funding Rates MCR
2019-2033 2034+ 2019-2033 2034+
27th CPP Actuarial Report - After Rounding 9.79 0.00 0.00 9.79 9.79
27th CPP Actuarial Report - Before Rounding 9.795 0.000 0.000 9.795 9.795
Legislated Amendments:
28th CPP Actuarial Report (Bill C-26)Table 28 Footnote 2 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000
29th CPP Actuarial Report (Bill C-74)Table 28 Footnote 3 0.000 0.035 0.007 0.035 0.007
Bill C-97Table 28 Footnote 4 0.009 0.000 0.000 0.009 0.009
Total Amendments 0.009 0.034 0.007 0.044 0.016
Improvements in Methodology 0.000 0.001 0.000 0.001 0.000
Experience (2016 to 2018) (0.233) 0.000 0.000 (0.233) (0.233)
Changes in Demographic Assumptions (0.061) 0.001 0.001 (0.060) (0.060)
Changes in Benefit Assumptions 0.080 (0.001) (0.001) 0.080 0.080
Changes in Economic Assumptions 0.094 0.000 0.000 0.094 0.094
Changes in Investment Assumptions 0.027 0.000 0.000 0.027 0.027
Change in Funding Target from 2028‑2078 to 2031-2081 (0.002) 0.000 0.000 (0.002) (0.002)
Rate before Rounding 9.708 0.035 0.007 9.743 9.715
Rounded Rate, in Accordance with the proposed Calculation of Contribution Rates Regulations, 2018Table 28 Footnote 5 9.71 0.04 0.01 9.75 9.72
30th CPP Actuarial Report 9.71 0.04 0.01 9.75 9.72

Table 28 Footnotes

Table 28 Footnote 1

Components may not sum to totals due to rounding.

Return to Table 28 footnote 1

Table 28 Footnote 2

The supplemental 28th CPP Actuarial Report provides the financial estimates of the introduction of the additional CPP under Bill C-26 (An Act to Amend the Canada Pension Plan, the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board Act and the Income Tax Act).

Return to Table 28 footnote 2

Table 28 Footnote 3

The 29th CPP Actuarial Report supplementing the 27th and 28th CPP Actuarial Reports as at 31 December 2015 provides the estimated financial impacts of the amendments of Bill C-74 (Budget Implementation Act, 2018, No. 1) on the base and additional CPP. A description of the amendments is also provided in Appendix A of this 30th CPP Actuarial Report.

Return to Table 28 footnote 3

Table 28 Footnote 4

Bill C-97 (Budget Implementation Act, 2019, No. 1) waives the application for a CPP retirement pension upon reaching age 70. As the amendment is not a benefit improvement, the full funding provision was not invoked.

Return to Table 28 footnote 4

Table 28 Footnote 5

The Calculation of Contribution Rates Regulations, 2018 and the Additional Canada Pension Plan Sustainability Regulations were published in the Canada Gazette, Part l, Vol. 152, No. 42 on October 20, 2018. Both Regulations are awaiting formal provincial approval.

Return to Table 28 footnote 5

6.2 Additional CPP

6.2.1 Introduction

The results presented in this report differ from those previously projected for a variety of reasons. Differences between the actual experience for 2016 through 2018 and that first projected in the 28th CPP Actuarial Report and then the 29th CPP Actuarial Report provide a different starting point for the additional CPP projections shown in this report. The impact of a different starting point (that is, experience since the last triennial valuation of the base Plan) and changes in the assumptions and methodology on the additional minimum contribution rates relative to the 28th and 29th CPP Actuarial Reports are addressed in section 6.2.2. Detailed reconciliations of the first and second additional minimum contribution rates are presented in Appendix D.

6.2.2 Changes in the Additional Minimum Contribution Rates

Table 29 presents the main elements of change in the first and second additional minimum contribution rates (FAMCR, SAMCR) and shows an overall increase in the rates. The cost impacts of the amendments determined in the 29th CPP Actuarial Report had the effect of increasing the AMCRs.

Although demographic experience over 2016 to 2018 was better than anticipated and acted to lower the AMCRs, changes in assumptions, especially those related to the assets allocation, and the amendments under Bills C-74 and C-97 have more than offset the decrease. As a result, the net result of all changes since the 28th CPP Actuarial Report is an overall absolute increase in the FAMCR of 0.05% and corresponding increase in the SAMCR of 0.20%. A more detailed reconciliation of changes in the AMCRs is provided in Table 107 in Appendix D of this report.

Table 29 Reconciliation of Changes in Additional Minimum Contribution RatesTable 29 Footnote 1
(% of additional CPP contributory earnings)
First Additional Minimum Contribution Rate Second Additional Minimum Contribution Rate
28th CPP Actuarial ReportTable 29 Footnote 2 - After Rounding 1.93 7.72Table 29 Footnote 3
28th CPP Actuarial Report - Before Rounding 1.925 7.700Footnote 3
Legislated Amendments:
29th CPP Actuarial Report (Bill C-74)Table 29 Footnote 4 0.059 0.236
Bill C-97Table 29 Footnote 5 0.000 0.000
Total Amendments 0.059Table 29 Footnote 6 0.236Table 29 Footnote 6
Improvements in Methodology (0.001) (0.003)
Starting Demographic and Economic Environment (2016 to 2018)Table 29 Footnote 7 (0.005) (0.020)
Changes in Demographic Assumptions (0.007) (0.028)
Changes in Benefit Assumptions (0.021) (0.082)
Changes in Economic Assumptions (0.009) (0.034)
Changes in Investment Assumptions 0.035 0.138
Rate before Rounding 1.977 7.907
Rounded Rates, in Accordance with the proposed Calculation of Contribution Rates Regulations, 2018Table 29 Footnote 8 1.98 7.92
30th CPP Actuarial Report 1.98 7.92

Table 29 Footnotes

Table 29 Footnote 1

Components may not sum to totals due to rounding.

Return to Table 29 footnote 1

Table 29 Footnote 2

The supplemental 28th CPP Actuarial Report provides the financial estimates of the introduction of the additional CPP under Bill C-26 (An Act to Amend the Canada Pension Plan, the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board Act and the Income Tax Act).

Return to Table 29 footnote 2

Table 29 Footnote 3

At the time of the 28th and 29th CPP Actuarial Reports, there were no regulations regarding the calculation and rounding of the AMCRs. For the given two reports, the rounded SAMCRs were determined as four times the rounded FAMCRs. The same relationship holds between the unrounded total and changes in the rates, but may not appear as such in the table because of separate rounding of the rates.

Return to Table 29 footnote 3

Table 29 Footnote 4

The 29th CPP Actuarial Report supplementing the 27th and 28th CPP Actuarial Reports as at 31 December 2015 provides the estimated financial impacts of the amendments of Bill C-74 (Budget Implementation Act, 2018, No. 1). A description of the amendments is also provided in Appendix A of this 30th CPP Actuarial Report.

Return to Table 29 footnote 4

Table 29 Footnote 5

Bill C-97 (Budget Implementation Act, 2019, No. 1) waives the application for a CPP retirement pension upon reaching age 70. As the amendment is not a benefit improvement, the full funding provision was not invoked.

Return to Table 29 footnote 5

Table 29 Footnote 6

The effects of the total amendments on the FAMCR and SAMCR on the basis of the final assumptions for the 30th CPP Actuarial Report are 0.055% and 0.218% of additional CPP contributory earnings, respectively.

Return to Table 29 footnote 6

Table 29 Footnote 7

The difference between the actual and projected demographic and economic experience of the CPP over the period 2016-2018 affect the starting point of the projections for the additional Plan as at 1 January 2019.

Return to Table 29 footnote 7

Table 29 Footnote 8

The Calculation of Contribution Rates Regulations, 2018 and the Additional Canada Pension Plan Sustainability Regulations were published in the Canada Gazette, Part l, Vol. 152, No. 42 on October 20, 2018. Both Regulations are awaiting formal provincial approval.

Return to Table 29 footnote 8

7. Conclusion

The actuarial projections of the financial states of the base and additional Plans presented in this report reveal the following.

Base CPP

This report confirms that the legislated contribution rate of 9.9% is sufficient to finance the base CPP over the long term. Under the legislated contribution rate, contributions to the base Plan are projected to be higher than expenditures over the period 2019 to 2021, with a portion of investment income thereafter required to pay for expenditures.

Total assets of the base Plan are expected to increase significantly over the next decade and then to continue increasing, but at a slower pace. Under the legislated contribution rate of 9.9%, base CPP assets are projected to accumulate to $688 billion by the end of 2030 and $1.7 trillion by 2050, while the ratio of assets to the following year’s expenditures is projected to remain relatively stable at a level of 7.6 over the period 2021 to 2031 and then grow to 8.8 in 2050 and continue increasing over the projection period.

The MCR of the base CPP is 9.75% for years 2022 to 2033 and 9.72% for the year 2034 and thereafter, which is lower than the legislated contribution rate of 9.9%. Thus, despite the projected substantial increase in benefits paid as a result of an aging population, the legislated rate exceeds the MCR, and the base Plan is expected to be able to meet its obligations throughout the projection period.

Since the MCR of the base CPP is below the legislated contribution rate of 9.9%, the insufficient rates provisions of the Canada Pension Plan do not apply. Therefore, in the absence of specific action by the federal and provincial governments, the legislated contribution rate will remain at 9.9% for the year 2019 and thereafter.

Additional CPP

This report confirms that the legislated first and second additional contribution rates of 2.0% for 2023 and thereafter and 8.0% for 2024 and thereafter result in projected contributions and investment income that are sufficient to fully pay the projected expenditures of the additional CPP over the long term. Under the legislated additional contribution rates, contributions to the additional Plan are projected to be higher than expenditures up to the year 2057 inclusive, with a portion of investment income thereafter required to pay for expenditures.

Total assets of the additional Plan are expected to increase rapidly over the first several decades as contributions are projected to exceed expenditures. Under the legislated additional contribution rates, additional CPP assets are projected to grow to $191 billion by the end of 2030 and to $1.3 trillion in 2050, while the ratio of assets to the following year’s expenditures is projected to increase rapidly until 2025 and then decrease after that, reaching a level of about 26 by 2080.

The FAMCR is 1.98% for the year 2023 and thereafter, and the SAMCR is 7.92% for the year 2024 and thereafter. The AMCRs are lower than the legislated additional contribution rates.

In accordance with the Additional Canada Pension Plan Sustainability Regulations, the AMCRs are sufficiently close to the legislated additional contribution rates such that no immediate action is required to address the differences. Therefore, in the absence of specific action by the federal and provincial governments, the legislated additional contribution rates will remain at their scheduled values.

Base and Additional CPP

To measure the sensitivity of the long-term projected financial position of both the base and additional Plans to future changes in the demographic, economic, and investment environments, a variety of sensitivity tests were performed. Analyses of different asset allocations, the impacts of varying investment experience, and sensitivity tests on key assumptions show that the minimum contribution rates of the base and additional CPP could deviate significantly from their best-estimate values if other than best-estimate assumptions were to be realized. More details are provided in Appendix E.

The projected financial states of the base and additional Plans presented in this report are based on the assumed demographic, economic, and investment outlooks over the long term. Given the length of the projection period and the number of assumptions required, it is unlikely that the actual experience will develop precisely in accordance with the assumptions. Therefore, it remains important to assess the financial states of the two components on a regular basis by producing periodic actuarial valuation reports. For this purpose, as required by the Canada Pension Plan, the next such actuarial valuation will be as at 31 December 2021.

8. Actuarial Opinion

In our opinion, considering that this 30th Actuarial Report on the Canada Pension Plan as at 31 December 2018 was prepared pursuant to the Canada Pension Plan:

  • the data on which this report is based are sufficient and reliable for the purposes of this report;

  • the assumptions used are, individually and in aggregate, reasonable and appropriate for the purposes of this report; and

  • the methods employed are appropriate for the purposes of this report.

Based on the results of this valuation, we hereby certify that:

  • the minimum contribution rate required to finance the base CPP is 9.75% for years 2022 to 2033 and 9.72% for the year 2034 and thereafter.

  • the additional minimum contribution rates that result in projected contributions being sufficient, along with projected investment income, to fully pay projected expenditures of the additional CPP are determined to be:

    • first additional minimum contribution rate: 1.49% for the year 2022 and 1.98% for the year 2023 and thereafter, and

    • second additional minimum contribution rate: 7.92% for the year 2024 and thereafter.

This report has been prepared, and our opinions given, in accordance with accepted actuarial practice in Canada, in particular, the General Standards and the Practice-Specific Standards for Social Security Programs of the Standards of Practice of the Canadian Institute of Actuaries.

As of the date of the signing of this report, we have not learned of any events, other than the events already accounted for in this report, that would have a material impact on the financial states of the base and additional CPP as at 31 December 2018.


  • Assia Billig, FCIA, FSA
  • Chief Actuary
  • Michel Montambeault, FCIA, FSA
  • Senior Actuary

Ottawa, Canada

27 November 2019

Appendix A – Summary of Plan Provisions

A.1 Introduction

The Canada Pension Plan came into force on 1 January 1966. Since its inception, the CPP has been amended several times, the most recent occasions as a result of the following:

Part 1 of Bill C-26 – An Act to amend the Canada Pension Plan, the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board Act and the Income Tax Act (introduction of the additional CPP) which received Royal Assent on 15 December 2016.

Division 19 of Part 6 of Bill C-74 – Budget Implementation Act, 2018, No. 1 (removal of age-related reductions in survivor benefits, introduction of child-rearing and disability drop-ins for the additional CPP, introduction of the post-retirement disability benefit for the base CPP, change in base CPP death benefit to flat-rate $2,500, authorization of making of sustainability regulations for the additional CPP) which received Royal Assent on 21 June 2018.

Division 2 of Part 4 of Bill C-86 – Budget Implementation Act, 2018, No. 2 (technical amendment regarding calculation of child-rearing drop-in amount under the additional CPP) which received Royal Assent on 13 December 2018Footnote 8.

Division 6 of Part 4 of Bill C-97 – Budget Implementation Act, 2019, No. 1 (application for CPP retirement pension is waived upon reaching age 70, effective 1 January 2020, as well as administrative amendments regarding overpayments of salaries and wages) which received Royal Assent on 21 June 2019.

The details of the cost impacts of the first two Bills listed above can be found respectively in the 28th Actuarial Report supplementing the 27th Actuarial Report on the Canada Pension Plan as at 31 December 2015, and the 29th Actuarial Report supplementing the 27th and 28th Actuarial Reports on the Canada Pension Plan as at 31 December 2015. There was no actuarial report in respect of the amendments under the third Bill listed above (Bill C-86) since the cost impact on the CPP was deemed small to negligible. As for the fourth Bill listed above (Bill C-97), it is considered to be a subsequent event for the purpose of this report, since it became known to the Chief Actuary after the valuation date but before the report. date and was determined to have an effect on the financial state of the CPP.

In addition, amendments to the regulations regarding the calculation of the CPP contribution rates were proposed in 2018 to clarify the determination of full funding rates and introduce the calculation of the additional CPP minimum contribution rates. These regulations as well as proposed regulations regarding the sustainability of the additional CPP, namely the Calculation of Contribution Rates Regulations, 2018 and the Additional Canada Pension Plan Sustainability Regulations are awaiting formal consent by the provinces.

Effective January 1, 2019, an enhancement of the CPP (the additional CPP) is implemented, such that the CPP consists of two components: the base CPP and additional CPP.

This Appendix presents a summary of the provisions of the Plan inclusive of all amendments. The legislation shall prevail if there is a discrepancy between it and this summary.

A.2 Participation

The CPP includes virtually all members of the labour force in Canada, including both employees and self-employed persons between the ages of 18 and 70 with employment earnings, other than those covered by the Québec Pension Plan (QPP). The main exceptions are persons with annual earnings lower than $3,500 (the Year’s Basic Exemption, defined below), members of certain religious groups, and other persons who qualify under excepted employment. It should be noted that the CPP covers all members of the Canadian Forces and the Royal Canadian Mounted Police, including those residing in the province of Québec. The persons to whom a CPP disability benefit is payable are not required to contribute.

A.3 Definitions

A.3.1 Base and Additional CPP

The base CPP or base Plan refers to that part of the CPP other than the part relating to the additional CPP. Prior to 1 January 2019, the CPP consisted only of the base Plan.

The additional CPP or additional Plan refers to the enhancement to the CPP introduced in An Act to Amend the Canada Pension Plan, the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board Act and the Income Tax Act. The additional CPP is implemented as of 1 January 2019. The additional CPP has two (first and second) parts, and the corresponding first and second additional contribution rates and pensionable earnings on which contributions are made will be phased in over the seven-year period 2019 to 2025, described below.

As of 1 January 2019, the CPP comprises the base and additional Plans.

A.3.2 Year’s Maximum Pensionable Earnings (YMPE) and Year’s Additional Maximum Pensionable Earnings (YAMPE)

The YMPE for a calendar year is the limit to which employment and self-employment earnings are subject to contributions and first additional contributions for purposes of the base Plan and additional Plan, respectively. The YMPE increases each year to the extent warranted by the percentage increase, as at 30 June of the preceding year, in the 12-month average of the average weekly earnings of the Industrial Aggregate (as published by Statistics Canada). If the amount so calculated is not a multiple of $100, the next lower multiple of $100 is used. The YMPE is set at $57,400 in 2019.

The YAMPE for a calendar year is the limit to which employment and self-employment earnings are subject to second additional contributions above the YMPE for the purposes of the additional Plan. The YAMPE will be introduced in the year 2024. The YAMPE will first be set at 107% of the YMPE in 2024, and then at 114% of the YMPE in 2025 and thereafter. The YAMPE is thus set to increase in tandem with the YMPE after 2025. If the YAMPE so calculated is not a multiple of $100, the next lower multiple of $100 is used.

In this report, the YMPE and YAMPE in the year 2025 are projected to be $67,100 and $76,400 respectively.

A.3.3 Year’s Basic Exemption (YBE)

The YBE for a calendar year is the minimum employment earnings required to participate in the Plan. As well, contributions are waived on earnings up to the YBE. The YBE is $3,500 in 2019.

A.3.4 Contributory Period and Additional Contributory Periods of the CPP

The contributory period is in respect of the base CPP and is the number of months from attainment of age 18 or from 1 January 1966, if later, to the earliest of the month in which the contributor dies, the month before the one in which the retirement pension commences and the month before the one in which the contributor reaches 70 years of age, less the number of months during which the contributor received a CPP or QPP disability benefit (including the three-month waiting period), or during which the contributor had at least one eligible child under seven years of age and had earnings for that year lower than the YBE. The contributory period excludes periods on or after 1 January 2012 during which beneficiaries contribute while in receipt of a retirement pension.

The first additional contributory period in respect of the additional CPP is the number of months from attainment of age 18 or from 1 January 2019, if later, to the earliest of the month in which the contributor dies, the month before the one in which the retirement pension commences and the month before the one in which the contributor reaches 70 years of age.

The second additional contributory period in respect of the additional CPP is the number of months from attainment of age 18 or from 1 January 2024, if later, to the earliest of the month in which the contributor dies, the month before the one in which the retirement pension commences and the month before the one in which the contributor reaches 70 years of age.

A.3.5 Pension Index

The Pension Index for a given calendar year is equal to the Consumer Price Index averaged over the 12-month period ending with October of the preceding year; however, the Pension Index of a given year may not be less than the previous year’s Pension Index.

A.4 Contribution Rate and Additional Contribution Rates of the CPP

In respect of the base CPP, from 1966 to 1986, the annual contribution rate applicable to contributory earnings was 1.8% for employees (and the same amount for their employers) and 3.6% in respect of self-employed earnings. This combined employer-employee contribution rate of 3.6% was subject to an annual increase of 0.2 percentage points from 1987 to 1996, attaining 5.6% in the last year of that period. From 1997 to 2003, the combined employer-employee contribution rate for the base CPP then increased in steps to reach a rate of 9.9% by 2003, with no subsequent increases scheduled thereafter.

The first additional contribution rate of the additional CPP applies to earnings between the YBE and the YMPE. The first additional combined employer-employee contribution rate will be phased in over the 5-year period 2019 to 2023 and will be equal to 2.0% from the year 2023 onward. The first additional contribution rate during the phase-in period from 2019 to 2023 is shown in Table 15 shows the progression of the MCR over time under the best estimate assumptions of this report.

The second additional contribution rate of the additional CPP applies to earnings between the YMPE and YAMPE and will be applied starting in the year 2024. The second additional combined employer-employee contribution rate is equal to 8.0% for the year 2024 and thereafter.

Employees and employers pay equal shares of the base and additional contribution rates of the CPP, and the self-employed pay the full rates.

Table 30 shows the legislated contribution rates for the CPP.

Table 30 Legislated Contribution Rates
(self-employed and combined employer-employee) (%)
Year Pensionable Earnings above YBE up to YMPE Pensionable Earnings above YMPE up to YAMPE
Base Contribution Rate First Additional Contribution Rate Second Additional Contribution Rate
2003-2018 9.9
2019 9.9 0.3
2020 9.9 0.6
2021 9.9 1.0
2022 9.9 1.5
2023 9.9 2.0
2024+ 9.9 2.0 8.0

The CPP statute gives the federal and provincial ministers of finance the authority to make changes to the Plan’s contribution rates through regulation, in connection with a triennial review. However, year-over-year rate increases cannot exceed 0.2 percentage points; beyond that, legislation is required.

For the base Plan, if a triennial CPP actuarial report projects a minimum contribution rate in excess of the scheduled (legislated) rate and the finance ministers do not make a recommendation to either increase the legislated rate or maintain it, the insufficient rates provisions of the Canada Pension Plan would apply. The base CPP contribution rate would then be increased in stages and a possible temporary freeze on inflation adjustments to benefits in pay would apply.

For the additional Plan, if a triennial CPP actuarial report projects that the minimum additional contribution rates deviate to a certain extent from their respective legislated additional rates and the finance ministers do not agree on how to address the deviation, then sustainability Regulations in respect of the additional Plan would provide the actions to take: changes to benefits and possibly the additional contributions rates. The proposed sustainability Regulations – the Additional Canada Pension Plan Sustainability Regulations, were pre-published in the Canada Gazette, Part I, Volume 152, Issue No. 42, October 20, 2018. The technical aspects of the methodology used to develop the Regulations are described in detail in the Technical Paper on the Additional Canada Pension Plan Regulations: Actuarial Study No. 20, published by the Office of the Chief Actuary in November 2018.

A.5 Retirement Pension

A.5.1 Eligibility Requirements

A person aged 60 or over becomes eligible for a base CPP retirement pension, provided contributions have been made during at least one calendar year. Further, an individual must apply for a retirement pension in order to receive it. However, as of 1 January 2020, the requirement to apply is waived for an eligible person if he or she is aged 70 or older and is in receipt of another benefit from the CPP, OAS program, or a provincial plan and/or had an income tax return filed in respect of the year before the year in which the waiver is granted.

Prior to 2012, a work cessation test applied in order for a retirement pension to become payable before age 65. This test required individuals who applied to take their CPP retirement benefit early (i.e. before age 65) to either stop working or materially reduce their earnings both in the month immediately preceding and the month of benefit take-up. The month following the start of pension payment, an individual could return to work and/or earn more without affecting the eligibility for or amount of the benefit. However, no further contributions to the CPP were allowed once benefits started being paid. There was no work cessation test for those aged 65 or older.

Since 1 January 2012, the work cessation test no longer applies, and individuals younger than 65 who choose to work in Canada outside of Québec while receiving a CPP or QPP retirement pension are required, along with their employers, to contribute to the CPP. Working beneficiaries aged 65 or older are given the option of continuing to contribute to the Plan; however, employers of those opting to do so are also required to contribute. The contributions from working beneficiaries are applied only toward providing post-retirement benefits from the base and additional CPP and do not affect eligibility for other CPP benefits. Upon attaining age 70, contributions are no longer permitted under the Plan.

The eligibility requirements for the additional retirement benefit are those of the base CPP. That is, a contributor is deemed to be eligible for the additional CPP retirement benefit if they are eligible for the base CPP retirement benefit.

A.5.2 Amount of Pension

The initial amount of the monthly retirement pension payable to a contributor under the CPP is equal to the sum of his or her retirement benefits payable under the base and additional Plans.

Base CPP

The initial monthly retirement pension payable under the base Plan is based on the contributor’s entire history of pensionable earnings during the contributory period. The retirement pension under the base Plan is equal to 25% of the average of the YMPE for the year of retirement and the four previous years, referred to as the Maximum Pensionable Earnings Average (MPEA), adjusted to take into account the contributor’s pensionable earnings. For this purpose, the contributor’s pensionable earnings for any given month are indexed by the ratio of the MPEA for the year of retirement to the YMPE for the year to which the given month belongs.

Some periods with low pensionable earnings may be excluded from the calculation of benefits by reason of pensions commencing after age 65, disability, child-rearing for a child less than seven years of age, and the general drop-out provision.

The general drop-out provision allows for a number of years with low or zero earnings to be dropped from the calculation of the retirement benefit. For example, for someone who took his/her retirement benefit at age 65 in 2019, the provision allows for 17% of the number of months with the lowest earnings (up to a maximum of about eight years) to be dropped from the calculation of the benefit. The general drop-out percentage was 15% from 1966 to 2011, 16% in 2012 and 2013, and has been 17% since 2014. As a result, the maximum number of years of low or zero earnings that may be dropped from the calculation of the retirement benefit for those contributors who take their benefit at age 65 has increased from about seven to eight years. The actual drop-out percentage that applies is based on the year of benefit take-up. The increase in the general drop-out provision increases the retirement pension, as well as the CPP disability and survivor pensions, since the determination of these benefits depends on the retirement pension.

The maximum retirement benefit payable under the base CPP at age 65 in 2019 is $13,855 per year or $1,154.58 per month.

Additional CPP

The calculation of the additional CPP retirement benefit is based on the first and second additional monthly pensionable earnings. The first additional monthly pensionable earnings are equal to the total of the highest 480 months or the total number of months, if lower, in the first additional contributory period of monthly adjusted pensionable earnings up to the YMPE divided by 480. Similarly, the second additional monthly pensionable earnings are equal to the total of the highest 480 or total number of months, if lower, in the second additional contributory period of monthly adjusted pensionable earnings between the YMPE and the YAMPE divided by 480. These calculations provide for a monthly accrual of 1/480 of the total additional retirement benefit.

The additional monthly retirement benefit is calculated as the sum of 8.33% of the first additional monthly pensionable earnings and 33.33% of the second additional monthly pensionable earnings.

The pensionable earnings used for the calculation of additional retirement benefits are adjusted to the date of retirement in the same way as for the base CPP, that is, indexing by the ratio of the MPEA to the YMPE as described above. Further, to account for the lower first additional contribution rates during the first four years of the phase-in period (from 2019 to 2022), the first additional monthly pensionable earnings are multiplied by 0.15 in 2019, 0.30 in 2020, 0.50 in 2021, and 0.75 in 2022.

Unlike the base CPP, there are no drop-out provisions for the additional Plan. However, there are “drop-in” provisions for the additional CPP to protect the additional benefits from periods of low pensionable earnings resulting from disability or child-rearing for a child less than seven years of age.

Specifically, for individuals who become disabled after 1 January 2019, an imputed income will be assigned to those disability periods of low or zero earnings for the purpose of calculating the additional CPP retirement (and survivor) benefits. The drop-in amount will be equal to 70 per cent of an individual’s average earnings in the six years prior to the onset of the disability.

The disability drop-in amount is calculated based on months of earnings after 2018 and prior to the onset of disability. If, however, there are fewer than 72 months (6 years) of such earnings, then the drop-in will be calculated based on the actual number of earnings months after 2018, prior to the onset of disability.

For parents of children under the age of seven on or after 1 January 2019, an imputed income will be assigned to child-rearing periods of low or zero earnings on or after 1 January 2019 for the purpose of calculating additional CPP benefits. The drop-in amount is equal to the parent’s average earnings during the five years prior to the birth or adoption of the child if that amount is higher than their actual earnings during the period the child was younger than age seven.

The child-rearing drop-in amount is calculated based on months of earnings after 2018 and prior to birth or adoption of a child. If, however, there are fewer than 60 such months (5 years), then the drop-in is calculated based on the actual number of earnings months, but not lower than 36. If there are less than 36 such months of earnings, the drop-in will be calculated using imputed earnings of 40% of the YMPE for the number of months missing from the minimum of 36.

Additional CPP retirement benefits will initially be low in the early years of the additional Plan due to the lower accrual rates during the phase-in period and few years of contributions. Contributions made over time to the additional CPP allow individuals to accrue partial additional benefits. Full additional retirement benefits are accrued after about 40 years of making contributions.

The projected maximum additional retirement benefits are shown in Table 31. An individual, with pensionable earnings at or above the YAMPE, who contributed to the additional Plan for at least 40 years starting in the year 2025 or later, would receive the maximum additional retirement benefit payable of $7,202 per year or $600 per month, in 2019 wage-adjusted dollarsFootnote 9. Table 31 accounts for the phase-in period of the additional Plan from 2019 to 2025. The maximum additional CPP retirement benefit represents an increase of 52% over the maximum base CPP retirement pension.

Table 31 Projected Maximum Additional CPP Retirement Benefit
Pensionable Earnings at or above YMPE before 2024, YAMPE thereafter
All amounts in 2019 wage-adjusted dollars
Maximum Basic CPP Retirement Benefit in 2019: $13,855 per year ($1,155 per month)
Start Retirement Pension at Age 65 on January 1 Number of Years of Contributions to Additional CPPTable footnote 311 Additional CPP Retirement Benefit
Year Annual Monthly
2024 5 $321 $26
2029 10 $1,180 $98
2044 25 $3,881 $323
2065 46Table footnote 312 $7,202 $600

Table 31 Footnotes

Table 31 Footnote 1

All years starting from 2019 to year before retirement.

Return to Table 31 footnote 1

Table 31 Footnote 2

40 years of contributions at the maximum.

Return to Table 31 footnote 2

A.5.3 Adjustment for Early or Postponed Retirement Benefit

The CPP retirement pension is subject to an actuarial adjustment that depends on the year and contributor’s age at commencement of the pension. As the initial monthly retirement pension is the sum of the retirement benefits under the base and additional Plans, the actuarial adjustment is applied to each component’s benefit.

The retirement pension is permanently adjusted downward or upward by a factor for each month between age 65 and the age when the pension commences or, if earlier, age 70. Prior to 2011, the adjustment factor for both pre-65 and post-65 pension take-up was 0.5% per month. Starting in 2011, the adjustment factors were changed. For contributors who take their retirement benefit early (before age 65), the adjustment factor gradually increased to 0.6% per month over the five-year period 2012 to 2016. For those who take their benefit after age 65, the factor gradually increased to 0.7% per month over the three-year period 2011 to 2013. Table 32 shows the legislated pension adjustment factors for the CPP.

Table 32 Legislated Pension Adjustment Factors (percentages)
Effective date Pre-65 Downward Monthly Adjustment Factor Post-65 Upward Monthly Adjustment Factor
Pre-2011 0.50 0.50
1 January 2011 0.50 0.57
1 January 2012 0.52 0.64
1 January 2013 0.54 0.70
1 January 2014 0.56 0.70
1 January 2015 0.58 0.70
1 January 2016 0.60 0.70

The downward pension adjustment factor of 0.6% per month, applicable for the year 2016 and thereafter, results in a pension that is reduced by 36% for pension take-up at age 60. The upward factor of 0.7% per month, applicable for 2013 and thereafter, results in a pension increased by 42% for pension take-up at age 70.

In accordance with subsection 115(1.11) of the Canada Pension Plan, the Chief Actuary shall calculate the pension adjustment factors and specify them in every third triennial CPP actuarial report prepared, starting with the Actuarial Report on the Canada Pension Plan as at 31 December 2015. The Chief Actuary may also, if deems it necessary, specify the factors in any supplemental CPP actuarial report after 2015.

In accordance with the legislation, the first CPP actuarial report to specify the pension adjustment factors was the 27th CPP Actuarial Report as at 31 December 2015, which was tabled in the House of Commons on 27 September 2016. The methodology used to calculate the factors is described in the study: “Canada Pension Plan Actuarial Adjustment Factors as specified in the 27th Actuarial Report on the Canada Pension as at 31 December 2015 – Actuarial Study No. 18”, which was published by the OCA in April 2017.

A.5.4 Working Beneficiaries – Post-Retirement Benefit

Prior to 2012, those who received a CPP retirement pension and then returned to work (i.e. working beneficiaries) did not pay contributions and therefore did not continue to build their CPP pension. Commencing 1 January 2012, individuals under the age of 65 who receive either a CPP or QPP retirement pension and continue to work in Canada outside of Québec are required, along with their employers, to contribute to the Plan. Working beneficiaries aged 65 to 69 are not required to contribute, but are given the option to do so. Employers of those working beneficiaries opting to contribute are also required to contribute.

The contributions paid by working beneficiaries provide for a post-retirement benefit. The total post-retirement benefit is equal to the sum of the benefits earned during retirement under the base and additional Plans.

The post-retirement benefit is earned at a rate of 1/40 of the maximum retirement pension per year of post-retirement contributions and is adjusted for the applicable earnings level and age of the contributor.

For both the base and additional CPP, contributions paid by working beneficiaries toward accruing the post-retirement benefit do not affect eligibility for other CPP benefits, except the post-retirement disability benefit described below. Pensionable earnings and additional pensionable earnings of working beneficiaries do not qualify for credit splitting.

A post-retirement benefit becomes payable the year following the year in which contributions are made, and multiple post-retirement benefits may accumulate over time. The total pension payable resulting from the combination of the retirement pension and post-retirement benefit may be greater than the maximum CPP or QPP pension payable. As for the CPP retirement pension, the post-retirement benefit is payable for a beneficiary’s lifetime.

The maximum base CPP post-retirement benefit at age 65 in 2019 for a working beneficiary who started their retirement pension at age 64 is $346.38 per year or $28.86 per month.

The projected maximum additional CPP post-retirement benefit at age 65 in 2026 and thereafter, for a working beneficiary who started their retirement pension at age 64, is $179.90 per year or $15 per month, in 2019 wage-adjusted dollars.

A.6 Disability Pension

A.6.1 Eligibility Requirements

A person is considered disabled if he or she is suffering from a severe and prolonged mental or physical disability. A disability is considered severe if by reason of it the person is regularly incapable of pursuing any substantially gainful occupation; a disability is considered prolonged if it is likely to be long-continuing and of indefinite duration or likely to result in death.

A person who becomes disabled prior to age 65 and is not receiving a CPP retirement pension is eligible for a disability pension provided that contributions have been made, at the time of disablement, for at least four of the previous six calendar years, counting years included wholly or partly in the contributory period. Contributions must be on earnings that are not less than 10% of the YMPE rounded, if necessary, to the next lower multiple of $100. Since 2008, contributors with 25 or more years of contributions to the Plan can meet the eligibility requirement with contributions in three of the last six years.

The eligibility requirements for the additional disability benefit are those of the base CPP. That is, a contributor is deemed to be eligible for the additional CPP disability benefit if they are eligible for the base CPP disability benefit.

A.6.2 Amount of Pension

The initial amount of the monthly disability pension payable is the sum of the disability benefits payable under the base and additional Plans.

The initial base CPP monthly disability benefit is the sum of a flat-rate portion payable ($496.36 per month in 2019) depending only on the year in which the benefit is payable and an earnings-related portion equal to 75% of the base CPP retirement pension that would be payable at the onset of disability if the contributory period ended on that date and no actuarial adjustment applied.

The initial amount of the additional CPP monthly disability benefit is strictly earnings-related and is equal to 75% of the additional retirement pension that would be payable at the onset of disability if the first and second additional contributory periods ended on that date and no actuarial adjustment applied.

The automatic conversion of the CPP disability benefit into a retirement pension at age 65 is determined by base and additional pensionable earnings at the time of disablement, price-indexed to age 65. In other words, the indexing from the time of disablement to age 65, which determines the initial rate of the CPP retirement pension, is in line with increases in prices rather than wages.

The maximum base CPP disability benefit payable in 2019 is $16,347.60 per year or $1,362.30 per month.

Additional CPP disability benefits will initially be low in the early years of the additional Plan due to the lower accrual rates during the phase-in period and few years of contributions.

The projected maximum additional CPP disability benefits, in 2019 wage-adjusted dollars, are shown in Table 33. The table accounts for the phase-in period of the additional Plan from 2019 to 2025. The maximum additional disability benefit payable is $5,402 per year or $450 per month, in 2019 wage-adjusted dollars.

Table 33 Projected Maximum Additional CPP Disability Benefit
Pre-Disability Pensionable Earnings at or above YMPE before 2024, YAMPE thereafter
All amounts in 2019 wage-adjusted dollars
As at January 1 Number of Years of Contributions to Additional CPPTable footnote 331 Additional CPP Disability Benefit
Year Annual Monthly
2024 5 $234 $19
2029 10 $885 $74
2044 25 $2,910 $243
2065+ 46Table footnote 332 $5,402 $450

Table 33 Footnotes

Table 33 Footnote 1

All years starting from 2019 to year before disability.

Return to Table 33 footnote 1

Table 33 Footnote 2

40 years of contributions at the maximum.

Return to Table 33 footnote 2

A.6.3 Post-Retirement Disability Benefit (Base CPP only)

Effective 1 January 2019, disability protection is provided for base CPP retirement pension recipients under age 65. Prior to 2019, base CPP retirement beneficiaries who were deemed disabled after the start of the retirement pension could not receive the CPP disability benefit, even if they were still under age 65 and otherwise met eligibility requirements. As of 1 January 2019, a post-retirement disability benefit equal to the flat-rate amount ($496.36 per month in 2019) will be payable under the base CPP to retirement beneficiaries who are deemed disabled while under age 65. Such eligible disabled retirement beneficiaries will receive the post-retirement disability benefit in addition to their retirement pension, and the dependent children of disabled retirees will receive children’s benefits.

The post-retirement disability benefit pertains only to the base Plan. There is no additional post-retirement disability benefit payable under the additional Plan.

A.7 Survivor’s Pension

A.7.1 Eligibility Requirements

A legal spouse, a separated legal spouse not cohabiting with a common-law partner, or a common-law partner of a deceased contributor, is eligible for a survivor’s benefit if the following conditions are met as at the date of the contributor’s death:

  • The deceased contributor must have made contributions during the lesser of ten calendar years, or one-third of the number of years included wholly or partly in his or her contributory period, but not for less than three years.

  • If the surviving spouse is the separated legal spouse of the deceased contributor, there must be no cohabiting common-law partner of the contributor at the time of death. If the survivor is the common-law partner of the deceased contributor, the couple must have cohabited for not less than one year immediately before the death of the contributor. If the common-law partner is of the same sex as the deceased contributor, the death must have occurred on or after 17 April 1985.

  • Prior to 2019, the surviving spouse or common-law partner must have had dependent children, been disabled, or been at least 35 years of age. As of 1 January 2019, these conditions no longer apply.

The eligibility requirements for the additional survivor’s benefit are those of the base CPP. That is, a legal spouse, a separated legal spouse not cohabiting with a common-law partner, or a common-law partner of a deceased contributor, is eligible for a survivor’s additional benefit if he/she is eligible for the base CPP survivor’s benefit.

A.7.2 Amount of Pension

The initial amount of the monthly survivor’s pension payable under the CPP is equal to the sum of the survivor’s benefits payable under the base and additional Plans.

Prior to 2019, survivors who were not disabled and did not have dependent children had their survivor’s pension reduced by 10 per cent for each year they were under the age of 45 when their spouse or common-law partner died. This reduction lasted until age 65, when the survivor’s pension was then recalculated. This meant that survivors under the age of 35 who were not disabled and did not have dependent children did not receive a survivor’s pension until age 65.

As of 1 January 2019, reductions are no longer applied to the survivor’s pension for survivors under age 45 who are neither disabled nor have dependent children. A surviving spouse and common-law partner of any CPP contributor who has made sufficient contributions will receive an unreduced survivor’s pension.

The amount of the pension changes depends on whether the survivor is younger or older than age 65 as described below. Additional survivor’s benefits regardless of age will initially be low in the early years of the additional Plan due to the lower accrual rates during the phase-in period and few years of additional contributions previously made by the deceased contributor.

A.7.2.1 New Survivor under Age 65

The initial monthly survivor’s pension payable until the surviving spouse or common-law partner attains age 65 is the sum of a base CPP flat-rate benefit and base and additional CPP earnings-related benefits. There is no additional CPP flat-rate benefit.

The base CPP flat-rate survivor’s benefit depends only on the year in which the survivor’s benefit is payable ($193.66 per month in 2019).

The earnings-related benefits payable under the base and additional CPP depend initially only on the contributor’s record of pensionable and additional pensionable earnings, respectively as at the date of death. The initial earnings-related survivor’s benefit is equal to 37.5% of either the retirement pension of the deceased contributor if he or she had been receiving a pension, or the retirement pension that would have been payable to the deceased contributor if the contributory and additional contributory periods had ended at the time of death, with no actuarial adjustment in either case.

The maximum base CPP earnings-related survivor’s benefit for new survivors under age 65 is $432.97 per month in 2019.

The projected maximum additional CPP survivor’s benefits, in 2019 wage-adjusted dollars, are shown in Table 34. The table accounts for the phase-in period of the additional Plan from 2019 to 2025. The maximum additional survivor’s benefit payable for survivors younger than age 65 is $2,701 per year or $225 per month, in 2019 wage-adjusted dollars.

Table 34 Projected Maximum Additional CPP Survivor’s Benefit, Survivor under Age 65

Prior Earnings of Deceased Contributor at or above YMPE before 2024, YAMPE thereafter

All amounts in 2019 wage-adjusted dollars

As at January 1 Number of Years of Prior Contributions by Deceased Contributor to Additional CPPTable footnote 341 Additional CPP Survivor’s Benefit
Year Annual Monthly
2024 5 $117 $10
2029 10 $442 $37
2044 25 $1,455 $121
2065+ 46Table footnote 342 $2,701 $225

Table 34 Footnotes

Table 34 Footnote 1

All years starting from 2019.

Return to Table 34 footnote 1

Table 34 Footnote 2

40 years of contributions at the maximum.

Return to Table 34 footnote 2

A.7.2.2 Survivor Age 65 or Over

At age 65, or upon becoming widowed at a later age, an eligible surviving spouse or common-law partner is entitled to a monthly survivor’s benefit equal to 60% of either the retirement pension of the deceased contributor if he or she had been receiving a pension, or the retirement pension that would have been payable to the deceased contributor if the contributory and additional contributory periods had ended at the time of death, with no actuarial adjustment in either case.

The maximum base CPP earnings-related survivor’s benefit for new survivors aged 65 or older is $692.75 per month in 2019.

The projected additional CPP survivor’s benefits, in 2019 wage-adjusted dollars, are shown in Table 35. The table accounts for the phase-in period of the additional Plan from 2019 to 2025. The maximum additional survivor’s benefit payable for survivors aged 65 or older is $4,321 per year or $360 per month, in 2019 wage-adjusted dollars.

Table 35 Projected Maximum Additional CPP Survivor’s Benefit, Survivor Age 65 or Over

Prior Earnings of Deceased Contributor at or above YMPE before 2024, YAMPE thereafter

All amounts in 2019 wage-adjusted dollars

As at January 1 Number of Years of Prior Contributions by Deceased Contributor to Additional CPPTable footnote 351 Additional CPP Survivor’s Benefit
Year Annual Monthly
2024 5 $187 $16
2029 10 $708 $59
2044 25 $2,328 $194
2065+ 46Table footnote 352 $4,321 $360

Table 35 Footnotes

Table 35 Footnote 1

All years starting from 2019.

Return to Table 35 footnote 1

Table 35 Footnote 2

40 years of contributions at the maximum.

Return to Table 35 footnote 2

A.8 Death Benefit (Base CPP only)

A lump sum benefit is payable to the estate of a deceased contributor if the eligibility rules for the survivor’s benefit are met. Prior to 2019, the amount of the death benefit was equal to six times the monthly amount of the CPP retirement pension accrued or payable in the year of death, adjusted to exclude any actuarial adjustments, and subject to a maximum of ten percent of the YMPE for the year of death, prior to 1998, and $2,500 thereafter. As of 1 January 2019, the death benefit equals the flat-rate amount of $2,500. The death benefit pertains only to the base CPP.

There is no additional CPP death benefit.

A.9 Child’s Benefits (Base CPP only)

Each child under age 18 and each full-time student aged 18 to 25 who is dependent on a contributor eligible for a CPP disability benefit (the disability pension or post-retirement disability benefit) or who was dependent on a deceased contributor who satisfied the requirements for a survivor’s pension is entitled to a flat-rate monthly benefit ($250.27 in 2019). Furthermore a child may receive more than one child’s benefit simultaneously. The child’s benefits pertain only to the base CPP.

There are no additional CPP child’s benefits.

A.10 Combined Benefits

The combined benefits rules of the CPP regarding the simultaneous payment of disability and survivor’s pensions or retirement and survivor’s pensions are complex and involve calculations and comparisons of various amounts.

For combined benefits under the base CPP, if there are two flat-rate components, then the beneficiary receives the larger one. For the earnings-related components, the beneficiary receives the larger one and 60% of the smaller one. As well, the total combined earnings-related component is limited to the maximum retirement pension at age 65 for combined survivor-retirement benefits and to the maximum disability pension for combined survivor-disability benefits. In the case of combined survivor-retirement benefits where the retirement pension is taken early (before age 65), the final retirement amount is actuarially adjusted.

The combined benefits under the additional CPP follow the same rules as for the base CPP, except that there are no flat rate benefits payable, and the limits on the earnings-related amounts do not apply.

A.11 Inflation Adjustments

All monthly CPP benefits are indexed annually in accordance with inflation, as measured by the Pension Index. Benefits are multiplied on 1 January of each calendar year by the ratio of the Pension Index applicable for that calendar year to the Pension Index for the preceding year. As the Pension Index for a year is at least equal to the value of the previous year’s Pension Index, benefits are either held constant or increased from one year to the next.

A.12 Credit Splitting

Pensionable and additional pensionable earnings may be split between separated or divorced couples (legal spouses or common-law partners) for each month the couple lived together. Pensionable earnings (of the base CPP) are used to establish eligibility for CPP benefits, and both pensionable and additional pensionable earnings are used to calculate the amounts of benefits.

Contributors may obtain a credit split even if they have remarried. However, pensionable and additional pensionable earnings cannot be split for any year in which the total earnings of the former couple do not exceed twice the YBE. Credit splitting also does not apply for any period of cohabitation during which a former spouse or common-law partner received a CPP retirement pension.

A.13 Pension Sharing

Couples (legal spouses or common-law partners) in an ongoing relationship may voluntarily (at the request of one of them) share their CPP retirement pensions corresponding to the number of years during which they cohabited. This applies provided both spouses have reached the minimum age requirement to receive a retirement pension. Sharing is possible even if only one of the spouses has participated in the Plan. Pension sharing ceases upon separation, divorce, or death.

Appendix B – Data, Assumptions, and Methodology

B.1 Introduction

This section describes the data, assumptions and methodology that underlie the financial projections in the Results sections of this report.

Future cash flows for the base and additional Plans are projected over a long period of time, i.e. over more than 75 years, and depend on assumptions such as those regarding fertility, mortality, migration, labour force participation, job creation, unemployment, inflation, employment earnings, and investment returns. These assumptions form the basis for the projections of future income and expenditures of both components of the CPP.

Over the years, the cumulative difference between revenues from contributions and investment income and the expenditures of the base and additional CPP generate the respective accumulated assets. The ratio of the end-of-year assets to the following year’s expenditures (the A/E ratio) is then calculated for each component of the Plan.

For the base CPP, the A/E ratio is used to determine the steady-state contribution rate, which is the lowest contribution rate that, in the long term, would generally stabilize the A/E ratio. The steady-state contribution rate is determined in this way before the consideration of any full funding requirement for increased or new benefits. The full funding rate is determined independently of the steady-state rate. It is added to the steady-state rate to produce the minimum contribution rate.

For the additional CPP, the A/E ratio combined with a funding ratio of at least 100% on an open-group basis are used to determine the first and second additional minimum contribution rates before the consideration of any full funding requirement for increased or new benefits. The A/E ratio is also used to determine the permanent increase in the additional minimum contribution rates to fully fund any increased or new benefits. A temporary increase in the additional minimum contribution rates to fully amortize any past costs resulting from increased benefits would be determined separately.

Although the demographic, economic, and investment assumptions have been developed using available information, the resulting estimates should be interpreted with caution. These estimates are not intended to be predictions, but rather projections of the future financial states of the base and additional CPP.

B.2 Data

Table 36 lists the sources of data used for this report categorized by major assumptions. The most recent years of data are also listed.

Table 36 Data Sources
Major Assumptions Source of Data Last experience year
PopulationTable footnote 361
Fertility Statistics Canada, Institut de la statistique du Québec 2017
Migration Statistics Canada 2018
Mortality Statistics Canada Life Tables 2015
Initial population Statistics Canada 2018
Economic
CPI Statistics Canada 2018
Real Wage Increases Statistics Canada
Records of Earnings file from Service Canada
2018
2017

Labour Force (participation, employment, and unemployment rates)

Statistics Canada 2018
Total Earnings and Contributory Earnings Records of Earnings file from Service Canada 2017
Contributions Service Canada
Canada Revenue Agency
2017
2017
Benefits Administration data from Service Canada 2018
Assets and Investment CPPIB
Canadian Institute of Actuaries’ Report on Canadian Economic Statistics 1924-2017, Final Release May 2018
2018
Operating Expenses ESDC and CPPIB 2018

Table 36 Footnotes 1

Table 36 Footnote 2

Population estimates as at July 2018 based on the 2016 census were published by Statistics Canada in January 2019 and were used although this was subsequent to the valuation date.

Return to Table 36 footnote 1

In addition to the data sources listed above, other data and reference sources were consulted for the development of the assumptions used in this report. These other sources include the Actuarial Valuation Report on the Québec Pension Plan as at 31 December 2015, which was used to set the assumed incidence rates in respect of the new post-retirement disability benefit, and mortality data from the United Kingdom and United States, which were used for comparison purposes.

B.3 Demographic Assumptions

Both the historical and projected populations of Canada less Québec are required for the calculation of future CPP contributions and benefits of the relevant cohorts of contributors and beneficiaries.

The populations of Canada and Québec as at 1 July 2018 are used as a starting point. The populations are then projected by age and sex from one year to the next by adding births and net migrants and subtracting deaths. Applying the fertility, migration, and mortality assumptions to the starting population develops the annual numbers of births, net migrants, and deaths. The relevant population for the CPP, which is the population of Canada less Québec, is obtained by subtracting the projected population of Québec from the projected population of Canada.

The population covered by the CPP pertains to Canada less Québec, but includes all members of the Canadian Forces (CF) and the Royal Canadian Mounted Police (RCMP). The approach used above to determine the CPP population does not make an explicit allowance for the members of the CF or RCMP residing in Québec or outside Canada. However, provision for this group is made implicitly through the development of the number of people with earnings and the proportion of contributors as described in section B.5 of this Appendix.

B.3.1 Initial Population as at 1 July 2018

The starting point for the demographic projections is based on the most recent Statistics Canada population estimates as at 1 July 2018 for Canada and Québec, by age and sex. The estimates are based on the 2016 Census. The estimates are adjusted by ungrouping ages 100 and older into individual ages using the observed distribution of Old Age Security program beneficiaries by age for ages 100 and older.

B.3.2 Fertility Rates

There are two definitions for the fertility rate: the total fertility rate and the cohort fertility rate. The total fertility rate corresponds to the average number of children born in a given calendar year. Specifically, it is the sum of fertility rates by age group for women aged 15 to 49. In comparison, the cohort fertility rate is the average number of children born to a woman in her lifetime, for women born in a specific year. It gives an idea of trends and variations between different generations over time.

Fertility rates are affected by many factors, including social attitudes, reproductive technologies, and economic conditions. It is assumed for this report that the most recent economic downturn has caused a temporary downward effect on total fertility rates, with couples choosing to postpone having any or more children until economic conditions improve. This effect was taken into consideration along with historical trends in age-specific fertility rates over the last 15 years.

The total fertility rate in Canada has declined significantly since the baby boom period, when the rate peaked at nearly 4.0 per woman in the late 1950s. The baby bust period that followed in the mid-1960s initiated a decline in total fertility rates, resulting in a record low of 1.6 children per woman by the mid-1980s. The total fertility rate rose slightly in the early 1990s, but then generally declined to a level of 1.5 by the late 1990s. Canada is one of many industrialized countries that saw their total fertility rates increase starting in the 2000s. By 2008, the total fertility rate for Canada had reached 1.68. However, in some industrialized countries, including Canada, the total fertility rate has decreased since 2008, which could be attributable to the economic downturn experienced in recent years. In 2017, the total fertility rate for Canada was 1.55Footnote 10.

Similar to Canada, the total fertility rate in Québec fell from a high of 4.0 per woman in the 1950s; however, the Québec rate fell to a greater degree, reaching 1.4 by the mid-1980s. The Québec rate then recovered somewhat in the early 1990s to over 1.6 and subsequently declined to below 1.5 by the late 1990s. There was a significant increase in the Québec rate after the year 2000, with the rate reaching 1.74 by 2008. In 2006, the Québec rate exceeded Canada’s level for the first time since 1958. However, similar to Canada’s fertility rate, the fertility rate for Québec has been decreasing in recent years. In 2017, the total fertility rate for Québec was 1.60Footnote 10.

To determine the ultimate total fertility rate for Canada, the historical fertility rate of each age group was studied and projected independently. As a result, it is assumed that the total fertility rate from 2027 onward for Canada will be 1.62 children per woman, which is lower than the ultimate rate of 1.65 assumed for the 27th CPP Actuarial Report. The ultimate rate corresponds to the average experience over the last 15 years, which captures the pre- and post-recession trends.

For Québec, the historical fertility rate and the difference between Canada’s and Québec’s fertility rates for each age group were analyzed. It is assumed that the difference in the rates will decrease until 2027 and remain stable thereafter. As a result, the total fertility rate from 2027 onward for Québec is assumed to be 1.65 children per woman, which is lower than the assumed ultimate rate of 1.68 in the 27th CPP Actuarial Report.

Although the historical total fertility rates, based on age-group rates, are used to set the assumption for the future, it is nonetheless useful and informative to consider the historical progression of the cohort fertility rates. Over time, the cohort fertility rates will converge to the total fertility rate assumption as shown in Table 37. Historically, the cohort fertility rates in Canada and Québec have steadily declined for the last 50 years. For females born in 1941, who reached the end of their childbearing years (turned age 49) in 1990, the cohort rates were 2.61 and 2.28 for Canada and Québec, respectively. However, for females reaching the end of their childbearing years in 2017 (born in 1968), the Canada and Québec cohort fertility rates were 1.78 and 1.70, respectively.

Table 37 Cohort Fertility Rates by Age and Year of Birth (Canada)
Year of Birth of WomanTable footnote 371 Annual Fertility Rates by Age and Year of Birth
(per 1,000 women)
Cohort Fertility Rate per WomanTable footnote 372
15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49
1960 31.3 91.3 117.5 86.1 32.6 6.2 0.4 1.83
1965 26.0 76.8 121.2 84.9 36.4 7.9 0.5 1.77
1970 22.7 76.5 104.7 91.3 48.5 10.6 0.8 1.78
1975 25.6 64.6 97.9 106.1 53.4 11.7 0.9 1.80
1980 20.0 54.2 101.9 107.7 57.0 13.9 1.0 1.78
1985 14.9 52.6 96.3 107.8 64.2 16.2 1.0 1.77
1990 13.9 44.6 87.0 114.1 71.5 16.2 1.0 1.74
1995 12.1 37.0 84.8 120.4 71.5 16.2 1.0 1.71
2000 7.7 32.3 82.5 120.4 71.5 16.2 1.0 1.66
2005 6.2 27.6 82.5 120.4 71.5 16.2 1.0 1.63
2006 5.9 27.6 82.5 120.4 71.5 16.2 1.0 1.63
2007 5.5 27.6 82.5 120.4 71.5 16.2 1.0 1.62
2008 5.2 27.6 82.5 120.4 71.5 16.2 1.0 1.62
2009 4.9 27.6 82.5 120.4 71.5 16.2 1.0 1.62
2010+ 4.6 27.6 82.5 120.4 71.5 16.2 1.0 1.62

Table 37 Footnotes

Table 37 Footnote 1

Ranges for years of birth correspond to the oldest to youngest ages for an age group. For example, in the first row of the table, 1960 is the year of birth for those aged 19, 24, 29, etc., 1961 is the year of birth for those aged 18, 23, 28, etc., and so forth.

Return to Table 37 footnote 1

Table 37 Footnote 2

Fertility rates below and to the right of the stepwise line are projected.

Return to Table 37 footnote 2

Table 38 below shows the assumed fertility rate of each age group and the resulting assumed total fertility rate by calendar year.

Table 38 Fertility Rates for Canada
Year Annual Fertility Rates by Age Group
(per 1,000 women)
Total
15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49
2019 7.1 35.1 86.1 110.3 59.9 12.6 0.8 1.56
2020 6.8 34.2 85.7 111.6 61.3 13.0 0.9 1.57
2021 6.5 33.2 85.2 112.8 62.8 13.5 0.9 1.57
2022 6.2 32.3 84.8 114.1 64.2 13.9 0.9 1.58
2023 5.9 31.4 84.3 115.4 65.7 14.4 0.9 1.59
2024 5.5 30.4 83.9 116.6 67.1 14.8 0.9 1.60
2025 5.2 29.5 83.4 117.9 68.6 15.3 1.0 1.60
2026 4.9 28.5 83.0 119.2 70.0 15.7 1.0 1.61
2027+ 4.6 27.6 82.5 120.4 71.5 16.2 1.0 1.62

Chart 3 shows the historical and projected total and cohort fertility rates for Canada.

Chart 3 - Historical and Projected Total and Cohort Fertility Rates for CanadaChart 3 footnote 1

Chart 3

Footnotes

Chart 3 footnote *

Cohort fertility rates are based on the age of a woman being 30 in a given calendar year. For instance, the cohort fertility rate for the year 2016 pertains to women born in 1986.

Return to chart 3 footnote 1

Description

Line chart showing the historical and projected total and cohort fertility rates for Canada, where the cohort fertility rates are based on a woman being age 30 in a given calendar year. Y axis represents the rate in number of children per women. X axis represents the year.

The Total Fertility Rate is 2.8 children per woman in 1941, increases overall to reach its highest point of 3.9 in 1959, and then decreases significantly to 1.6 by the mid-1980s. From the mid-1980s until 2017, the Total Fertility Rate has periods of growth and decline, fluctuating between 1.5 and 1.7, with a value of 1.55 in 2017. After 2017, the rate is projected to gradually increase to reach 1.62 in 2027 and remain at that level thereafter.

The cohort fertility rate is 2.8 children per woman in 1941, increases to its highest point of 3.3 in 1960, then decreases thereafter, reaching a projected value of 1.62 by 2041.

The most recent completed cohort fertility rate of 1.78 in 1998 is for those born in 1968.

Finally, in accordance with the average experience over the last 10, 20, and 30 years, the assumed ratio of male to female newborns is 1.053, which is essentially the same as for the 27th CPP Actuarial Report.

B.3.3 Mortality

For this report, the mortality rate projections start from the year 2015 mortality rates of Statistics Canada (CLT 2014-2016 Tables). According to Statistics Canada, life expectancies at birth in 2015 without any assumed future improvements in mortality (i.e. reductions in mortality) for males and females in Canada were 79.9 and 84.0 years, respectively, compared to 80.5 and 84.3 years projected under the 27th CPP Actuarial Report. At age 65 in 2015, life expectancies were 19.3 and 22.1 years according to Statistics Canada Tables compared to 19.7 and 22.3 years projected under the 27th CPP Actuarial Report for males and females, respectively.

The average annual mortality improvement rates experienced in Canada over the 15-year period from 2000 to 2015 by age and sex were used as the basis for projecting annual mortality improvement rates from 2016 onward. For ages 65 and over, the annual mortality improvement rates for 2016 to 2017 were projected using the trends derived from the administrative data on Old Age Security (OAS) program beneficiaries, representing 98% of the general population. Improvement rates by age and sex for years 2016 to 2034 (2018 to 2034 for ages 65 and over) were determined by cubical interpolation between:

  • the improvement rates of year 2015 (2017 for ages 65 and over), and

  • the ultimate improvement rates described below in respect of the period 2035 and thereafter.

For the year 2035 and thereafter for Canada, the ultimate annual rates of mortality improvement vary by age only and not by sex or calendar year. The ultimate mortality improvement rates are derived using a combination of backward-and forward-looking approaches. The analysis of the Canadian experience over the period from 1925 to 2015, including the recent slowdown trends observed in mortality improvement rates for OAS beneficiaries, was combined with an analysis of the possible drivers of future mortality improvements. Mortality improvement rates for males at most ages are currently higher than those for females but are assumed to decrease to the same level as female rates from 2035 onward. The mortality improvement rates for Québec are assumed to be the same as for Canada from 2018 onward.

The ultimate rate for both sexes for ages 0 to 89 is set at 0.8% per year from 2035 onward for Canada and Québec. For ages above 89, the ultimate improvement rate is set to reduce from 0.5% for the age group 90-94 to 0.2% for those aged 95 and older.

Table 39 shows the initial (2016-2017), intermediate (2018-2034) and ultimate (2035+) assumed annual mortality improvement rates for Canada. The mortality improvement rates shown for 2016-2017 and 2018-2034 represent the average rates over these periods.

Table 39 Annual Mortality Improvement Rates for Canada (percentages)
Age Males Females
2016-2017Table footnote 391 2018-2034Table footnote 391 2035+ 2016-2017Table footnote 391 2018-2034Table footnote 391 2035+
0 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.8
1-14 3.3 2.0 0.8 1.6 1.2 0.8
15-44 1.9 1.3 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.8
45-64 1.9 1.4 0.8 1.4 1.1 0.8
65-74 2.3 1.5 0.8 1.6 1.2 0.8
75-84 2.3 1.5 0.8 1.6 1.2 0.8
85-89 2.1 1.5 0.8 1.8 1.3 0.8
90-94 1.5 1.1 0.5 1.4 1.0 0.5
95+ 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.2

Table 39 Footnotes

Table 39 Footnote 1

The mortality improvement rates shown for 2016-2017 and 2018-2034 represent average rates over these periods.

Return to Table 39 footnote 1

The resulting projected mortality rates in Table 40 indicate a continuous decrease in mortality rates over the long term. For example, the mortality rate at age 65 for males is expected to decrease from about 10 deaths per thousand people in 2019 to 6 deaths per thousand people by 2075. The gap in mortality rates between males and females at each age is also expected to decrease over the projection period.

Table 40 Mortality Rates for Canada (annual deaths per 1,000 people)
Age Males Females
2019 2025 2050 2075 2019 2025 2050 2075
0 4.56 4.28 3.48 2.84 4.13 3.95 3.23 2.64
10 0.08 0.07 0.05 0.04 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.05
20 0.56 0.48 0.37 0.31 0.27 0.26 0.21 0.17
30 0.86 0.80 0.65 0.53 0.41 0.39 0.32 0.26
40 1.18 1.08 0.87 0.71 0.73 0.67 0.54 0.44
50 2.79 2.56 2.06 1.69 1.89 1.78 1.45 1.19
60 6.51 5.77 4.58 3.75 4.28 3.90 3.13 2.56
65 10.34 9.18 7.29 5.96 6.81 6.21 4.98 4.08
70 16.77 14.98 11.92 9.75 11.19 10.30 8.31 6.80
75 27.47 24.54 19.53 15.98 18.78 17.34 14.00 11.45
80 45.68 40.77 32.44 26.54 32.13 29.52 23.78 19.45
85 77.33 69.10 55.02 45.01 56.24 51.15 41.03 33.57
90 134.88 122.24 101.81 87.15 102.53 93.70 78.33 67.05
100 341.45 330.34 305.88 285.33 298.22 287.87 266.29 248.40

Chart 4 and Chart 5 show the historical and projected life expectancies at birth and age 65, respectively since the Plan’s inception in 1966, based on each given year’s mortality rates (i.e. without future mortality improvements). Table 41 shows the projected Canadian life expectancies at various ages for the specified calendar years, also based on each given year’s mortality rates (without future improvements). Table 42 is similar to Table 41, the only difference being that it takes into account the assumed mortality improvements after the specified calendar years (with future improvements).

Given the continuing trend in increased longevity, Table 42 is considered to be more realistic than Table 41, especially for the older ages. At the same time, the extended length of the projection period increases the uncertainty of the results presented in Table 42 for younger ages.

From 2019 to 2075, Canadian life expectancy at age 65 (with assumed future mortality improvements) is projected to grow from 21.4 to 24.7 years for males and from 23.9 to 26.8 years for females, as shown in Table 42. The yearly increase in life expectancies at age 65 in the early years of the projection reflects the significant increase observed over the last decades. Thereafter, there is a projected slowdown in the increase in life expectancies consistent with the lower rate of improvement in mortality assumed for 2035 and thereafter.

Chart 4 - Life Expectancies at Birth for Canada, without improvements after the year shownChart 4 footnote 1

Chart 4

Footnotes

Chart 4 footnote *

These are calendar year life expectancies based on the mortality rates of the given attained year.

Return to chart 4 footnote 1

Description

Line chart showing the historical and projected life expectancies at birth for Canada, without improvements after the year shown. Y axis represents the life expectancy in number of years. X axis represents the year.

Life expectancy at birth for males is 68.8 years in 1966, increases to 80.2 in 2016, and is projected to increase to 86.1 years in 2076.

Life expectancy at birth for females is 75.4 years in 1966, increases to 84.2 in 2016, and is projected to increase to 89 years in 2076.

Chart 5 - Life Expectancies at Age 65 for Canada, without improvements after the year shownChart 5 footnote 1

Chart 5

Footnotes

Chart 5 footnote *

These are calendar year life expectancies based on the mortality rates of the given attained year.

Return to chart 5 footnote 1

Description

Line chart showing the historical and projected life expectancies at age 65 for Canada, without improvements after the year shown. Y axis represents the life expectancy in number of years. X axis represents the year.

Life expectancy at age 65 for males is 13.6 years in 1966, increases to 19.5 in 2016, and is projected to increase to 23.9 years in 2076.

Life expectancy at age 65 for females is 16.9 years in 1966, increases to 22.2 in 2016, and is projected to increase to 26 years in 2076.

Table 41 Life Expectancies for Canada, without improvements after the year shownTable 41 footnote 1
Age Males Females
2019 2025 2050 2075 2019 2025 2050 2075
0 80.8 81.9 84.2 86.0 84.6 85.4 87.3 89.0
10 71.3 72.4 74.5 76.3 75.0 75.8 77.7 79.3
20 61.4 62.5 64.6 66.4 65.2 65.9 67.8 69.3
30 51.8 52.9 54.9 56.7 55.4 56.1 57.9 59.5
40 42.3 43.3 45.3 47.0 45.6 46.4 48.1 49.6
50 32.9 33.9 35.8 37.4 36.1 36.8 38.5 40.0
60 24.1 25.0 26.8 28.2 26.9 27.6 29.2 30.6
65 20.0 20.8 22.4 23.8 22.6 23.2 24.7 26.0
70 16.1 16.9 18.3 19.6 18.4 19.0 20.4 21.6
75 12.6 13.2 14.5 15.7 14.6 15.1 16.3 17.4
80 9.4 10.0 11.1 12.0 11.1 11.6 12.6 13.5
85 6.8 7.2 8.0 8.7 8.0 8.4 9.2 9.9
90 4.6 4.9 5.4 5.9 5.5 5.8 6.3 6.8
100 2.2 2.2 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.7 2.8

Table 41 Footnotes

Footnote 1

These are calendar year life expectancies based on the mortality rates of the given attained year.

Return to footnote 1

Table 42Life Expectancies for Canada, with improvements after the year shownTable 42 footnote 1
Age Males Females
2019 2025 2050 2075 2019 2025 2050 2075
0 86.9 87.4 89.1 90.7 89.9 90.3 91.8 93.2
10 76.7 77.1 78.8 80.4 79.8 80.1 81.6 83.0
20 66.1 66.5 68.3 69.9 69.2 69.6 71.1 72.5
30 55.7 56.2 57.9 59.6 58.8 59.2 60.7 62.1
40 45.5 45.9 47.6 49.2 48.4 48.8 50.3 51.8
50 35.4 35.9 37.5 39.1 38.3 38.7 40.2 41.6
60 25.9 26.3 27.9 29.3 28.5 28.9 30.3 31.7
65 21.4 21.8 23.3 24.7 23.9 24.2 25.6 26.8
70 17.2 17.6 19.0 20.2 19.4 19.8 21.0 22.2
75 13.4 13.8 15.0 16.1 15.3 15.7 16.8 17.9
80 10.0 10.4 11.4 12.3 11.6 11.9 12.9 13.8
85 7.1 7.4 8.2 8.9 8.3 8.6 9.4 10.1
90 4.7 5.0 5.5 5.9 5.6 5.9 6.4 6.8
100 2.2 2.2 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.7 2.8

Table 42 Footnotes

Footnote 1

These are cohort life expectancies that take into account assumed
future improvements in mortality of the general
population and therefore differ from calendar year life expectancies,
which are based on the mortality rates of the given attained year.

Return to footnote 1

B.3.4 Net Migration

The net migration rate refers to the net effect of the number of immigrants less the number of emigrants, plus the number of returning Canadians and the net increase in the number of non-permanent residents.

Immigration and emigration are generally recognized as being volatile parameters of future population growth since they are subject to a variety of demographic, economic, social, and political factors. During the period from 1972 to 2018, annual immigration to Canada varied between 84,000 and 320,000, annual emigration from Canada fluctuated between 40,000 and 97,000, and the annual number of returning Canadians fluctuated between 14,000 and 41,000.

Over the same period, the annual net increase in the number of non-permanent residents fluctuated between -71,000 and 166,000. Since 2014, the federal government has introduced several modifications to the Temporary Foreign Workers Program making it more difficult for employers to hire temporary foreign workers. The federal government also improved its monitoring of the Temporary Foreign Workers Program in 2018. It is expected that these changes will moderate the increase in the number of non-permanent residents.

However, in the most recent years, the largest group of non-permanent residents has been international students, accounting for almost half of non-permanent residents. It is expected that the number of foreign students will stabilize over the next three years. Given the government’s policies and the expected stabilization of the number of foreign students, the annual net increase in the number of non-permanent residents is projected to fall gradually to reach zero in 2021 and to remain at that level thereafter.

The actual 2018 net migration rate of 1.11% is assumed to decrease to 0.86% in 2019, 0.73% in 2020, and 0.62% in 2021, and to remain at that level thereafter. The ultimate net migration rate of 0.62% corresponds to the average rate experienced over the ten-year period 2009-2018, excluding the net increase in non-permanent residents during that period. The assumed short-term net migration rate is higher than the ultimate rate of 0.62%, due to starting from a higher rate in 2018, the federal government’s short-term targets, and the assumed gradual decrease to zero for the net increase in the number of non-permanent residents from 2019 through 2021. Chart 6 shows the net migration experience since 1972 and the projected rates.

Chart 6 - Net Migration Rate (Canada)

Chart 6
Description

Line chart showing the historical and projected net migration rate for Canada, including non-permanent residents. Y axis represents the net migration rate as a percentage of the population. X axis represents the year.

The net migration rate for Canada is 0.4% in 1972, and then is shown to fluctuate over time but increase overall, reaching its highest point of 1.1% in 2018. The net migration rate is then projected to decrease between the years 2019 to 2021 to reach a value of 0.62% and to remain at that value thereafter.

To project Québec’s population, the same migration components of immigration, emigration and returning Canadians are considered. An additional component consisting of the net interprovincial emigration for Québec is also included. It is assumed that the 2018 net migration rate of 0.91% for Québec will decrease gradually to reach an ultimate level of 0.43% in 2021, assuming a decline in the net increase of non-permanent residents to zero by that year. The ultimate net migration rate for Québec of 0.43% corresponds to the average experience over the last 10 years, excluding the net increase in non-permanent residents.

For both Canada and Québec, the distributions of immigrants, emigrants, and returning Canadians by age and sex used for the demographic projections were derived from Statistics Canada data averaged over the period 2009 to 2018.

B.3.5 Projected Population and its Characteristics

The historical and projected evolution of the Canada less Québec population age distribution since the inception of the Plan is shown in Chart 7. One can easily observe that the triangular shape of the 1960s has become more rectangular over time. This is projected to continue and indicates an aging population. The effects of the baby boom, baby bust, and echo generations can be seen. The chart also reveals that the number of people aged 85 and over is expected to increase dramatically over the coming decades.

Chart 7 - Age Distribution of the Population of Canada less Québec (thousands)

Chart 7
Description

Succession of four bar charts showing the evolution of the age distribution of the population of Canada less Québec. Y axis represents the number of individuals in thousands. X axis represents the quinquennial age groups.

The first bar chart represents the age distribution of the population in 1966. For age groups below age 20, the baby-boom generation, the population of each group is between 1.3 and 1.6 million, with the age group 5 to 9 years being the largest. For age groups above age 19, the population gradually decreases from about 1 million to almost zero for age group 90 and older.

The second bar chart represents the age distribution of the population in 2018. For age groups 50 to 54 up to 65 to 69, the baby boomers, the population of each group is between 1.5 and 2.1 million, with the age group 55 to 59 being the largest. For ages below 50, the effects of the baby bust and echo generation are seen. The population increases from 1.5 to 2 million for groups 0 to 4 up to 25 to 29, remains at 2 million for group 30 to 34, and then decreases somewhat before rising again for the baby boomers. For age groups above 69 (older than the baby boomers), the population gradually decreases from 1.2 million to about 242,000 for age group 90 and older.

The third bar chart represents the age distribution of the population in 2025. For age groups 60 to 79, the baby boomers, the population decreases from 2.1 to 1.2 million. For age groups below age 60, the effects of the baby bust and echo generation are seen. The population increases from about 1.7 to 2.2 million for groups 0 to 4 up to 30 to 34 and then decreases to 1.9 million before rising again for the baby boomers. For age groups above age 79 (older than the boomers), the population gradually decreases from about 765,000 to 317,000 for age group 90 and older.

Lastly, the fourth bar chart represents the age distribution of the population in 2050. For age groups 85 and over, the baby boomers, the population decreases from 1.2 and 1 million. The population increases from 1.8 to 2.5 million for age groups 0 to 4 up to 50 to 54, and then decreases to 1.4 million for age group 80 to 84.

The population of Canada as at 1 July 2018 is 37.1 million, while the population of Canada less Québec is 28.7 million. Table 43 and Table 44 present the projected populations of Canada and Canada less Québec as at 1 July for selected age groups and years, while Chart 8 shows the evolution of the population of Canada less Québec, split by ages groups 0 to 19, 20 to 64, and 65 and above, from 1975 to 2095. Table 45 shows the variations in the relative proportions of various age groups for Canada less Québec throughout the projection period.

The proportion of people aged 65 and over for Canada less Québec is expected to increase significantly from 17.1% of the total population in 2019 to 27.6% by 2095. The number of people aged 65 and older as a proportion of the number of people aged 20 to 64 also increases over the same period, from 28.0% in 2019 to 52.1% by 2095. This proportion affects the ratio of benefits to contributions under the CPP.

Table 43Population of Canada by Age (thousands)
Year 0-17 18-69 70+ 0-19 20-64 65+ Total
2019 7,235 25,757 4,507 8,115 22,780 6,604 37,499
2020 7,292 25,912 4,694 8,144 22,892 6,862 37,899
2021 7,346 26,028 4,885 8,175 22,961 7,122 38,259
2022 7,405 26,138 5,079 8,226 23,005 7,390 38,621
2023 7,471 26,232 5,283 8,292 23,031 7,663 38,986
2024 7,536 26,315 5,500 8,361 23,054 7,937 39,351
2025 7,594 26,395 5,728 8,437 23,065 8,215 39,717
2030 7,838 26,762 6,901 8,726 23,248 9,528 41,502
2035 8,061 27,063 7,984 8,957 23,828 10,323 43,108
2040 8,212 27,764 8,536 9,157 24,520 10,836 44,512
2045 8,274 28,667 8,828 9,265 25,258 11,245 45,769
2050 8,362 29,517 9,069 9,357 25,864 11,727 46,948
2055 8,544 30,140 9,440 9,534 26,308 12,282 48,124
2060 8,785 30,632 9,946 9,790 26,585 12,988 49,362
2065 9,028 31,020 10,633 10,059 26,954 13,669 50,682
2075 9,418 32,370 11,592 10,513 28,332 14,535 53,381
2085 9,779 34,013 12,223 10,919 29,777 15,320 56,016
2095 10,271 35,591 12,952 11,452 31,036 16,326 58,814
Table 44Population of Canada less Québec by Age (thousands)
Year 0-17 18-69 70+ 0-19 20-64 65+ Total
2019 5,646 19,995 3,383 6,351 17,707 4,967 29,025
2020 5,688 20,140 3,525 6,368 17,821 5,165 29,354
2021 5,729 20,259 3,670 6,389 17,903 5,365 29,657
2022 5,773 20,372 3,818 6,428 17,965 5,570 29,963
2023 5,826 20,471 3,975 6,479 18,013 5,780 30,272
2024 5,881 20,560 4,142 6,533 18,059 5,991 30,583
2025 5,932 20,646 4,318 6,596 18,092 6,208 30,896
2030 6,168 21,038 5,226 6,860 18,320 7,251 32,432
2035 6,394 21,356 6,092 7,096 18,825 7,921 33,841
2040 6,536 21,986 6,571 7,286 19,428 8,380 35,094
2045 6,589 22,785 6,852 7,382 20,121 8,724 36,227
2050 6,660 23,585 7,058 7,458 20,686 9,158 37,302
2055 6,814 24,172 7,394 7,609 21,099 9,674 38,381
2060 7,035 24,622 7,859 7,839 21,390 10,286 39,516
2065 7,267 25,004 8,445 8,093 21,716 10,907 40,716
2075 7,637 26,192 9,335 8,525 22,937 11,702 43,164
2085 7,961 27,727 9,868 8,892 24,291 12,372 45,555
2095 8,414 29,188 10,495 9,381 25,459 13,257 48,097

Chart 8 - Population of Canada less Québec (millions)

Chart 8
Description

Stacked area chart showing the historical and projected population of Canada less Québec by age group. Y axis represents the number of individuals in millions. X axis represents the year.

The population aged 0 to 19 years is 6.1 million in 1975, reaches 6.3 in 2018, and is projected to increase to 9.4 million in 2095. The population aged 0 to 19 represents 36% of the total population in 1975, 22% in 2018, and 20% in 2095.

The population aged 20 to 64 is 9.2 million in 1975, reaches 17.6 in 2018, and is projected to increase to 25.5 million in 2095. The population aged 20 to 64 represents 55% of the total population in 1975, 61% in 2018, and 53% in 2095.

The population aged 65 and over is 1.5 million in 1975, reaches 4.8 in 2018, and is projected to increase to 13.3 million in 2095. The population aged 65 and over represents 9% of the total population in 1975, 17% in 2018, and 28% in 2095.

Table 45Analysis of Population of Canada less Québec by Age
Year % of Total PopulationTable 45 footnote 1 % of Total PopulationTable 45 footnote 1 Age 65 + as
% of Age
20‑64
0-17 18-69 70+ 0-19 20-64 65+
2019 19.5 68.9 11.7 21.9 61.0 17.1 28.0
2020 19.4 68.6 12.0 21.7 60.7 17.6 29.0
2021 19.3 68.3 12.4 21.5 60.4 18.1 30.0
2022 19.3 68.0 12.7 21.5 60.0 18.6 31.0
2023 19.2 67.6 13.1 21.4 59.5 19.1 32.1
2024 19.2 67.2 13.5 21.4 59.0 19.6 33.2
2025 19.2 66.8 14.0 21.3 58.6 20.1 34.3
2030 19.0 64.9 16.1 21.2 56.5 22.4 39.6
2035 18.9 63.1 18.0 21.0 55.6 23.4 42.1
2040 18.6 62.7 18.7 20.8 55.4 23.9 43.1
2045 18.2 62.9 18.9 20.4 55.5 24.1 43.4
2050 17.9 63.2 18.9 20.0 55.5 24.5 44.3
2055 17.8 63.0 19.3 19.8 55.0 25.2 45.8
2060 17.8 62.3 19.9 19.8 54.1 26.0 48.1
2065 17.8 61.4 20.7 19.9 53.3 26.8 50.2
2075 17.7 60.7 21.6 19.7 53.1 27.1 51.0
2085 17.5 60.9 21.7 19.5 53.3 27.2 50.9
2095 17.5 60.7 21.8 19.5 52.9 27.6 52.1

Table 45 Footnotes

Footnote 1

Sum of components may not equal to 100% due to rounding

Return to footnote 1

Table 46 shows the projected components of population growth, which is defined as the projected number of births plus net migrants less the projected number of deaths for Canada less Québec from 2019 to 2095, and Chart 9 presents these figures graphically. For Canada less Québec, the number of births is projected to exceed deaths until 2041. Thereafter, all population growth is expected to come from migration.

Over the period 2019 to 2025, the population of Canada less Québec is projected to grow by about 1.0% per year. The annual growth slows to about 0.7% between the late 2030s and early 2040s and to 0.6% thereafter. The population of Canada less Québec is expected to reach 48.1 million by 2095.

Table 46 Births, Net Migrants, and Deaths for Canada less Québec (thousands)
Year Population
1st July
Births Net Migrants Deaths Change in
Population
Annual Percentage Change
20-64 65+ Total
(%) (%) (%)
2019 29,025 303 260 207 356 0.9 3.9 1.2
2020 29,354 312 228 210 329 0.6 4.0 1.1
2021 29,657 317 200 214 303 0.5 3.9 1.0
2022 29,963 322 202 217 306 0.3 3.8 1.0
2023 30,272 326 204 221 309 0.3 3.8 1.0
2024 30,583 330 206 226 311 0.3 3.6 1.0
2025 30,896 334 208 230 312 0.2 3.6 1.0
2030 32,432 340 218 259 300 0.3 2.7 0.9
2035 33,841 336 227 294 269 0.5 1.6 0.8
2040 35,094 336 236 333 239 0.7 0.9 0.7
2045 36,227 344 243 367 220 0.7 0.8 0.6
2050 37,302 355 250 392 213 0.5 1.1 0.6
2055 38,381 369 257 408 219 0.3 1.2 0.6
2060 39,516 382 264 414 233 0.2 1.3 0.6
2065 40,716 390 272 418 244 0.4 1.1 0.6
2075 43,164 402 288 448 242 0.5 0.7 0.6
2085 45,555 426 304 488 241 0.5 0.6 0.5
2095 48,097 451 320 502 269 0.5 0.8 0.6

Chart 9 - Projected Components of Population Growth for Canada less Québec (thousands)

Chart 9
Description

Line chart showing the projected components of population growth for Canada less Québec. Y axis represents the number of individuals in thousands. X axis represents the year.

Births are projected to start at approximately 303,000 in 2019 and to increase to 451,000 in 2095.

Deaths are projected to start at approximately 207,000 in 2019, to increase to a value (340,000) higher than births (337,000) in 2041, and to continue increasing to 502,000 in 2095.

Births and Migration are projected to start at approximately 563,000 in 2019, to decrease somewhat until 2021 and then increase thereafter to reach 771,000 in 2095.

B.4 Economic Assumptions

The list of assumptions required to project the various economic indices, as well as CPP contributions and expenditures is quite extensive. The following sections cover the more important assumptions.

The economic outlook rests on the assumed evolution of the labour market, that is, labour force participation, employment, unemployment, inflation, and the increase in average employment earnings. Rates of return on CPP assets reflect the financial markets and are part of the investment assumptions described in section B.6 of this Appendix. All of these factors must be considered together and form part of an overall economic perspective.

B.4.1 Economic Perspective

The future revenues and expenditures of the CPP depend on many economic factors. It is important to define the individual economic assumptions in the context of a long term overall economic perspective. For this report, it is assumed that, despite an uncertain economic outlook for major economies, a moderate and sustainable growth in the Canadian economy will persist throughout the projection period.

The actuarial examination of the CPP involves the projection of its revenues and expenditures over a long period of time. Although best judgment is used regarding future economic trends, it is nonetheless difficult to anticipate all economic changes that may occur during the projection period. There will always be some degree of uncertainty. The projected aging of the population combined with the continued retirement of the baby boom generation over the next few decades will certainly create significant social and economic changes. It is possible that the evolution of the working-age population, especially the active population, will be quite different from what has been historically observed and what has been assumed for the purpose of this report.

B.4.2 Labour Market

Chart 10 shows the main components of the labour market that are used to determine the number of earners and contributors by age, sex, and calendar year.

Chart 10 - Components of the Labour Market

Chart 10
Description

Flow chart showing the main components of the labour market that are used to determine the number of earners and contributors by age, sex, and calendar year.

The top box is the total population. This box splits into two boxes, the first one is the population aged 15 and over and the second box is the population 0 to 14.

The box of the population aged 15 and over is then split into two boxes, the first box is the active population or labour force, which represents those who are either employed or looking for employment. The second box is the inactive population.

The active population box is split into two boxes. The first box is for the employed and the second box is for the unemployed.

The number of earners is based on the number of employed and is defined as the number of persons who had earnings during a given calendar year. The earners become contributors if they have earnings during the year above the Year’s Basic Exemption (YBE) and they are between the ages of 18 and 70.

The proportion of earners and contributors assumptions (described in this section and section B.5.1) rely on the projected active population given in this report. The projected effect of working beneficiaries is reflected in all these assumptions.

B.4.2.1 Active Population (Canada)

The overall labour force participation rates in Canada (the active population expressed as a proportion of the population aged 15 and over) from 1976 to 2018 clearly show a narrowing of the gap between male and female rates. Although the increase in participation rates of females aged 18 to 69 has slowed down since the mid-2000s, the increase was significant over the previous decades. Furthermore, participation rates for those aged 55 and older have increased significantly over the last decade for both men and women.

In 1976, overall male participation (ages 15 and over) was about 78% compared to only 46% for females, which represents a gap of 32%. This gap has narrowed to 8.3% in 2018 (participation rates of 69.6% for males, 61.3% for females). It is assumed that females will continue to narrow the gap in participation rates but at a slower pace, with the gap gradually reducing to about 8.1% by 2035 (67.1% for males vs. 59.0% for females). In addition, over the next two decades, it is assumed that the participation of males and females aged 55 to 69 will continue to increase.

Table 47 to Table 49 provide projections of the active and employed populations and associated participation, employment, and unemployment rates for Canada.

Table 47Active population (Canada, ages 15 and over) (thousands)
Year PopulationTable 47 footnote 1 Active Population Employed
Males Females Total Males Females Total Males Females Total
2019 15,155 15,568 30,723 10,533 9,505 20,038 9,862 8,994 18,856
2020 15,318 15,736 31,054 10,630 9,575 20,205 9,954 9,059 19,013
2021 15,464 15,890 31,354 10,712 9,635 20,347 10,028 9,113 19,141
2022 15,615 16,048 31,663 10,795 9,696 20,491 10,102 9,167 19,270
2023 15,769 16,211 31,980 10,875 9,757 20,632 10,174 9,222 19,396
2024 15,924 16,373 32,297 10,954 9,818 20,772 10,246 9,276 19,522
2025 16,077 16,534 32,611 11,031 9,877 20,907 10,314 9,328 19,642
2030 16,799 17,298 34,097 11,339 10,215 21,554 10,586 9,632 20,218
2035 17,450 17,994 35,444 11,706 10,615 22,321 10,928 10,009 20,937
2040 18,077 18,664 36,741 12,052 10,919 22,970 11,250 10,296 21,546
2045 18,653 19,287 37,940 12,393 11,221 23,614 11,567 10,582 22,149
2050 19,163 19,831 38,994 12,676 11,478 24,153 11,831 10,825 22,656
2055 19,642 20,323 39,965 12,894 11,686 24,580 12,035 11,021 23,056
2060 20,140 20,821 40,960 13,093 11,883 24,976 12,221 11,206 23,427
2065 20,678 21,358 42,036 13,333 12,113 25,446 12,446 11,423 23,869
2075 21,824 22,540 44,364 14,003 12,702 26,705 13,071 11,978 25,050
2085 22,923 23,706 46,629 14,700 13,320 28,019 13,721 12,561 26,282
2095 24,063 24,876 48,939 15,365 13,909 29,274 14,343 13,117 27,459

Table 47 Footnotes

Footnote 1

Adjusted to the basis used by Statistics Canada in its Labour Force Survey.

Return to footnote 1

Table 48 Labour Force Participation, Employment and Unemployment (Canada, ages 15 and over) (percentages)
Year Labour Force
Participation Rate
Employment Rate Unemployment Rate
Males Females Total Males Females Total Males Females Total
2019 69.5 61.1 65.2 65.1 57.8 61.4 6.4 5.4 5.9
2020 69.4 60.8 65.1 65.0 57.6 61.2 6.4 5.4 5.9
2021 69.3 60.6 64.9 64.8 57.4 61.0 6.4 5.4 5.9
2022 69.1 60.4 64.7 64.7 57.1 60.9 6.4 5.5 6.0
2023 69.0 60.2 64.5 64.5 56.9 60.7 6.4 5.5 6.0
2024 68.8 60.0 64.3 64.3 56.7 60.4 6.5 5.5 6.0
2025 68.6 59.7 64.1 64.2 56.4 60.2 6.5 5.6 6.1
2030 67.5 59.1 63.2 63.0 55.7 59.3 6.6 5.7 6.2
2035 67.1 59.0 63.0 62.6 55.6 59.1 6.6 5.7 6.2
2040 66.7 58.5 62.5 62.2 55.2 58.6 6.7 5.7 6.2
2045 66.4 58.2 62.2 62.0 54.9 58.4 6.7 5.7 6.2
2050 66.1 57.9 61.9 61.7 54.6 58.1 6.7 5.7 6.2
2055 65.6 57.5 61.5 61.3 54.2 57.7 6.7 5.7 6.2
2060 65.0 57.1 61.0 60.7 53.8 57.2 6.7 5.7 6.2
2065 64.5 56.7 60.5 60.2 53.5 56.8 6.7 5.7 6.2
2075 64.2 56.4 60.2 59.9 53.1 56.5 6.7 5.7 6.2
2085 64.1 56.2 60.1 59.9 53.0 56.4 6.7 5.7 6.2
2095 63.9 55.9 59.8 59.6 52.7 56.1 6.7 5.7 6.2
Table 49 Labour Force Participation Rates (Canada)
(percentages)
Age Males Females
Age Group 2019 2025 2035 2050 2019 2025 2035
15-19 48.8 50.0 52.0 52.0 50.9 52.0 54.0 54.0
20-24 76.1 79.0 80.0 80.0 74.2 76.0 78.0 78.0
25-29 89.3 91.0 92.0 92.0 83.7 84.0 87.0 87.0
30-34 92.4 93.0 94.0 94.0 81.7 83.0 85.0 85.0
35-39 92.7 94.0 94.0 94.0 82.6 84.0 86.0 86.0
40-44 92.9 93.0 94.0 94.0 84.8 86.0 87.0 87.0
45-49 90.9 93.0 93.0 93.0 85.1 86.0 87.0 87.0
50-54 88.2 90.0 91.0 91.0 82.4 83.0 85.0 85.0
55-59 80.0 82.0 84.0 84.0 71.7 73.0 76.0 76.0
60-64 62.5 63.0 65.0 65.0 50.9 52.0 54.0 54.0
65-69 31.9 34.0 35.0 35.0 21.8 22.0 24.0 24.0
70 and Over 11.2 12.0 13.0 13.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 6.5
55-69 60.4 59.6 61.8 62.9 50.1 48.7 51.8 52.4
55 and Over 43.0 40.3 37.0 38.7 32.7 30.1 27.8 28.6
18-69 79.8 81.0 82.8 82.0 72.1 72.7 75.6 74.9
15 and Over 69.5 68.6 67.1 66.1 61.1 59.7 59.0 57.9

Given that participation rates start to decline mostly after age 50, the aging of the population will exert downward pressure on the overall labour force participation rate in Canada. If current participation rates by age and sex were to apply throughout the projection period, the effect of population aging alone would cause the overall participation rate from Table 48 to fall from 65.2% in 2019 to 59.3% in 2050, instead of 61.9% as projected under the best-estimate assumptions. However, it is expected that a number of factors will contribute toward partially offsetting the decline that results from population aging.

The main assumption underlying the future overall participation rate is a significant increase in participation rates for age groups 55 and over as a result of an expected continued trend toward longer working lives. The participation rates for those aged 55 to 59 are assumed to increase from 80.0% to 84.0% for males and from 71.7% to 76.0% for females over the period 2018 to 2050. Over the same period, the participation rates for those aged 60 to 64 are assumed to increase from 62.5% to 65.0% and from 50.9% to 54.0% for males and females, respectively, and the participation rates for those aged 65 to 69 are assumed to increase from 31.9% to 35.0% and from 21.8% to 24.0% for males and females, respectively.

Chart 11 shows the historical and projected participation rates for the three age groups 55 to 59, 60 to 64, and 65 to 69. Government policies aimed at increasing participation rates of older workers, the removal of the work cessation test to receive the CPP retirement pension prior to age 65, the increase in life expectancy, and possible insufficient retirement savings are assumed to encourage older workers to delay their retirement and exit the labour force at a later age.

Chart 11 - Labour Force Participation Rates (Canada)

Chart 11
Description

Line chart showing the historical and projected labour force participation rates for Canada for specific age groups. Y axis represents the labour force participation rate. X axis represents the year.

The labour force participation rate of males aged 55 to 59 is 72.1% in 1995, increases to 79.7% in 2018, and is projected to increase to 84% in 2050.

The participation rate of females aged 55 to 59 is 48.3% in 1995, increases to 71.5% in 2018, and is projected to increase to 76% in 2050.

The participation rate of males aged 60 to 64 is 43.4% in 1995, increases to 62.4% in 2018, and is projected to increase to 65% in 2050.

The participation rate of females aged 60 to 64 is 23.4% in 1995, increases to 50.7% in 2018, and is projected to increase to 54% in 2050.

The participation rate of males aged 65 to 69 is 16.7% in 1995, increases to 31.5% in 2018, and is projected to increase to 35% in 2050.

The participation rate of females aged 65 to 69 is 7.3% in 1995, increases to 21.7% in 2018, and is projected to increase to 24% in 2050.

However, despite the assumed future increase in participation rates of older workers and a reliance on skilled immigrant workers, it is still expected that there will be moderate labour shortages in the future as the working-age population expands at a slower pace and as baby boomers continue to retire and exit the labour force. The participation rates for all age groups are expected to increase due to the attractive employment opportunities resulting from labour shortages.

It is also expected that future participation rates will increase with the aging of current young cohorts that have a stronger labour force attachment compared to previous cohorts. The stronger labour force attachment of later cohorts is attributable to different reasons, including higher attained education. The aging of more educated workers with higher labour force attachment, and the exit from the workforce of less educated older workers is expected to create upward pressure on participation rates. Over the shorter term, the participation rates of younger age groups are assumed to gradually increase to their pre-recession levels. Finally, although historical increases in participation rates for women are not expected to continue in the future, their participation rates are expected to increase faster than the participation rates for men.

Based on the foregoing, the participation rates of both men and women are expected to increase over the projection period from their 2018 levels for all age groups, especially for those aged 55 and over. Nonetheless, these increases in participation rates are not sufficient to offset the decrease in the overall participation rate (ages 15 and over) due to the demographic shift.

For the purpose of projecting the participation rates, the projection period has been divided into three periods: 2019 to 2025, 2025 to 2035, and from 2035 onward. From 2019 to 2025, and from 2025 to 2035, the projected participation rates are based on the expected impact of the abovementioned factors through time for each age group and sex. From 2035 onward, the participation rates are held constant. This long-term assumption combined with a slow growth in the working-age population, results in a low rate of growth of approximately 0.5% for the Canadian active population (that is, the labour force) after 2035.

B.4.2.2 Employment (Canada)

In Canada, the annual job creation rate (i.e. the change in the number of persons employed) has been on average about 1.6% since 1976. However, this rate has varied over the years. It is assumed that the job creation rate will be 1.1% in 2019 corresponding to the unemployment rate of 5.9%, based on the most recent experience and various economic forecasts. It is further assumed that over the short term, the job creation rate will be slightly lower than the labour force growth rate, so that the unemployment rate slowly increases from its 2019 level of 5.9% to 6.2% by 2030.

Over the long term, the job creation rate is assumed to be the same as the labour force growth of 0.5%. This results in the projected unemployment rate of 6.2%, which is in line with various economic forecasts and reflects moderate economic growth.

The assumed ultimate unemployment rate of 6.2% is the same as for the 27th CPP Actuarial Report but is assumed to be reached by year 2030 instead of 2025.

Table 50 shows the projected number of employed persons, aged 18 to 69, in Canada.

Table 50 Employment of Population (Canada, ages 18 to 69)
Year Population Employed Employment Rate
Males Females Males Females Males Females
(thousands) (thousands) (%)
2019 12,911 12,846 9,440 8,648 73.1 67.3
2020 12,987 12,925 9,521 8,709 73.3 67.4
2021 13,042 12,985 9,585 8,756 73.5 67.4
2022 13,095 13,043 9,645 8,801 73.7 67.5
2023 13,140 13,092 9,700 8,844 73.8 67.6
2024 13,180 13,135 9,753 8,886 74.0 67.6
2025 13,218 13,177 9,802 8,924 74.2 67.7
2030 13,392 13,370 9,987 9,179 74.6 68.6
2035 13,537 13,526 10,243 9,506 75.7 70.3
2040 13,890 13,874 10,519 9,761 75.7 70.4
2045 14,349 14,318 10,814 10,026 75.4 70.0
2050 14,780 14,737 11,067 10,260 74.9 69.6
2055 15,087 15,054 11,249 10,445 74.6 69.4
2060 15,315 15,317 11,397 10,612 74.4 69.3
2065 15,482 15,538 11,571 10,802 74.7 69.5
2075 16,150 16,220 12,122 11,310 75.1 69.7
2085 16,988 17,025 12,730 11,860 74.9 69.7
2095 17,776 17,815 13,298 12,381 74.8 69.5
B.4.2.3 Labour Market (Canada less Québec)

Given that the CPP covers contributors in all provinces except Québec, labour market assumptions were developed for Québec, and the results for Canada less Québec were derived. Table 51 and Table 52 show the projected active population, number of employed, and labour force participation rates for Canada less Québec.

Table 51 Active Population (Canada less Québec, ages 15 and over)
(thousands)
Year PopulationTable 51 footnote 1 Active Population Employed
Males Females Total Males Females Total Males Females Total
2019 11,653 12,012 23,664 8,148 7,356 15,504 7,628 6,951 14,580
2020 11,788 12,153 23,941 8,234 7,423 15,657 7,712 7,016 14,729
2021 11,910 12,285 24,195 8,310 7,482 15,792 7,782 7,071 14,854
2022 12,036 12,419 24,455 8,385 7,543 15,928 7,852 7,126 14,979
2023 12,164 12,557 24,721 8,459 7,602 16,061 7,920 7,181 15,101
2024 12,293 12,693 24,986 8,531 7,661 16,192 7,987 7,235 15,222
2025 12,419 12,829 25,248 8,601 7,718 16,318 8,051 7,287 15,338
2030 13,023 13,474 26,497 8,879 8,030 16,909 8,305 7,574 15,879
2035 13,583 14,079 27,662 9,198 8,390 17,587 8,603 7,913 16,516
2040 14,136 14,675 28,810 9,507 8,665 18,172 8,891 8,173 17,065
2045 14,655 15,240 29,895 9,821 8,944 18,765 9,183 8,438 17,621
2050 15,124 15,744 30,869 10,087 9,186 19,273 9,432 8,666 18,098
2055 15,563 16,204 31,767 10,294 9,383 19,677 9,625 8,852 18,477
2060 16,012 16,661 32,674 10,479 9,565 20,044 9,798 9,023 18,821
2065 16,493 17,148 33,641 10,693 9,770 20,464 9,999 9,216 19,215
2075 17,524 18,214 35,738 11,293 10,308 21,602 10,559 9,723 20,282
2085 18,521 19,277 37,798 11,938 10,886 22,823 11,161 10,268 21,429
2095 19,546 20,340 39,886 12,548 11,430 23,978 11,731 10,781 22,513

Table 51 Footnotes

Footnote 1

Adjusted to the basis used by Statistics Canada in its Labour Force Survey.

Return to footnote 1

Table 52 Labour Force Participation Rates (Canada less Québec)
(percentages)
Age Group Males Females
2019 2025 2035 2050 2019 2025 2035 2050
15-19 48.0 49.1 51.4 51.5 49.2 51.1 53.4 53.5
20-24 75.4 78.2 79.1 79.2 73.3 75.0 77.1 77.2
25-29 88.8 90.7 91.7 91.7 82.7 83.2 87.0 87.0
30-34 92.7 93.0 94.0 94.0 80.7 82.2 84.5 84.5
35-39 93.0 94.0 94.0 94.0 81.7 83.2 85.5 85.5
40-44 92.7 92.7 94.0 94.0 83.3 84.9 86.2 86.2
45-49 91.0 93.3 93.0 93.0 84.3 85.1 86.2 86.3
50-54 88.3 90.0 91.0 91.0 81.5 82.2 84.5 84.5
55-59 79.7 82.0 84.3 84.3 71.9 73.3 77.2 77.0
60-64 63.4 63.9 65.9 65.8 53.0 54.1 56.1 56.0
65-69 33.8 36.2 36.7 36.7 23.4 23.6 25.9 25.8
70 and Over 11.9 12.7 13.6 13.6 6.1 6.7 7.0 6.9
55-69 61.3 60.8 62.6 63.8 51.5 50.3 53.4 54.1
55 and Over 43.9 41.5 38.0 39.8 34.0 31.6 29.2 29.9
18-69 80.0 81.3 83.1 82.2 71.9 72.6 75.7 75.0
15 and Over 69.9 69.3 67.7 66.7 61.2 60.2 59.6 58.3
B.4.2.4 Number of Earners (Canada less Québec)

The number of earners for any given year, namely anyone who had employment earnings during the year, is always more than the employed population and sometimes even close to the labour force because it includes all individuals who had earnings at any time during the year, whereas the employed population only indicates the average number of employed in any given year.

The projected number of earners is obtained by a regression based on a highly correlated historical relationship between the number of employed persons and the number of earners over the period 1976 to 2016. Table 53 shows the projected average number of employed persons and the projected number and proportion of earners (relative to the population) aged 18 to 69, for Canada less Québec. The projected number and proportion of earners shown in Table 53 pertain to all earners, including those who are CPP retirement beneficiaries. The effect of CPP retirement beneficiaries with earnings, that is, working beneficiaries, is discussed more in detail in section B.7.6 of this Appendix.

Table 53 Employment of Population (Canada less Québec, ages 18 to 69)
 Year Population Employed Earners Proportion of Earners
(earners as %
of population)
Males Females Males Females Males Females Males Females
(thousands) (thousands) (thousands) (%)
2019 9,995 10,001 7,296 6,678 8,166 7,563 81.7 75.6
2020 10,066 10,074 7,372 6,739 8,264 7,641 82.1 75.8
2021 10,122 10,136 7,434 6,789 8,346 7,707 82.5 76.0
2022 10,177 10,196 7,494 6,836 8,426 7,771 82.8 76.2
2023 10,224 10,247 7,549 6,881 8,487 7,822 83.0 76.3
2024 10,267 10,293 7,602 6,925 8,544 7,872 83.2 76.5
2025 10,308 10,338 7,651 6,966 8,597 7,918 83.4 76.6
2030 10,493 10,545 7,836 7,216 8,792 8,195 83.8 77.7
2035 10,645 10,711 8,062 7,513 9,026 8,519 84.8 79.5
2040 10,961 11,025 8,310 7,744 9,298 8,776 84.8 79.6
2045 11,368 11,418 8,580 7,988 9,616 9,063 84.6 79.4
2050 11,774 11,811 8,819 8,208 9,898 9,321 84.1 78.9
2055 12,063 12,110 8,993 8,384 10,104 9,525 83.8 78.7
2060 12,272 12,351 9,132 8,538 10,262 9,701 83.6 78.5
2065 12,439 12,565 9,288 8,708 10,425 9,887 83.8 78.7
2075 13,022 13,169 9,779 9,171 10,966 10,406 84.2 79.0
2085 13,800 13,926 10,343 9,685 11,602 10,992 84.1 78.9
2095 14,528 14,660 10,867 10,168 12,189 11,540 83.9 78.7

B.4.3 Annual Increase in Prices (Inflation Rate)

The increase in prices (inflation rate) assumption is needed to determine the Pension Index for any given calendar year. It is also used in the determination of the annual nominal increase in average employment earnings, the YMPE, YAMPE, and the nominal rates of return on investments.

Price increases, as measured by changes in the CPI, tend to fluctuate from year to year. Over the last 50 years, the trend was generally upward through the early 1980s and then downward until the introduction of the inflation-control targets in the early 1990s, at which point inflation began to stabilize. The average annual increases in the CPI over the 50, 20 and 10-year periods ending in 2018 were 3.7%, 1.9% and 1.6%, respectively.

In 2016, the Bank of Canada and the Government renewed their commitment to keep the inflation rate within a control range of 1% to 3%, with a target of 2%, until the end of 2021. The Senior Deputy Governor of the Bank of Canada indicated in November 2018 that the Bank was undergoing an extensive review of its monetary policy framework. A number of variants to replace the inflation target are being explored. The Bank is also looking at a possible dual mandate of targeting inflation as well as GDP growth or employmentFootnote 11. Nevertheless, given the success of the 2% inflation target, it is considered very likely that the Bank will renew its inflation target commitment or at least that it will constitute an important part of its future mandate.

In Canada, inflation was 2.3% in 2018. Price increase forecasts from various economists indicate an average increase in prices of 2.0% for the period 2019 to 2040. To reflect these forecasts and the expectation that the Bank of Canada will renew its inflation target, the price increase assumption is set at 2.0% for the year 2019 and thereafter. The assumption of 2.0% is equal to the assumption for the 27th CPP Actuarial Report.

B.4.4 Real Wage Increases

The real wage increase can be measured using the difference between the increase in the nominal average wage and the CPI. In this case, the nominal average wage is defined as the ratio of the total nominal earnings to total civilian employment in the Canadian economy as a whole.

The real wage increase is related to the growth in total labour productivity as follows:

Real Wage Increase = Growth in Labour Productivity +
Growth in Compensation Ratio +
Growth in Earnings Ratio +
Growth in Average Hours Worked +
Growth in Price Differential.

Historically, the nominal average wage increase has been similar to the nominal average annual employment earnings (“AAE”) increase, and therefore it is assumed that they can be used interchangeably.

The assumed increase in AAE is used to project the total employment earnings of CPP contributors, while the assumed increase in Average Weekly Earnings (AWE) is used to project the increase in the YMPE from one year to the next. The difference between real increases in the AWE and the AAE (net of inflation) has been relatively small over the period from 1966 to 2017, that is, a difference of approximately 0.01% per year. For several years in the 1980s and the 1990s, this difference was more pronounced; however, the real increases in AAE and AWE have shown a tendency to converge toward each other over time. Taking these factors into consideration, the real increases in AWE and AAE are assumed to be the same for the year 2018 and thereafter.

In addition to the factors included in the equation above, labour demand has a significant impact on real wage increases. Real wages are subject to downward pressure as the demand for workers decreases. On the other hand, one could expect upward pressure on wages if the size of the labour force fails to keep pace with a growing economy.

Labour productivity in the above equation is defined as the ratio of the real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to total hours worked in the Canadian economy. The average annual growth in labour productivity was 1.59% for the 55-year period ending in 2017, 1.18% for the 25-year period and 0.83% for the 15-year period ending in 2017. Long-term productivity is expected to increase as a result of labour shortages and the federal government’s policies aimed at enhancing productivity growth. At the same time, increasing labour force participation rates of older workers and a reliance on immigration for future labour force growth are expected to moderate the labour shortage and its impact on productivity. Labour productivity growth of 1.10% is assumed for the long term.

The compensation ratio is the ratio of the total compensation received by workers to the nominal GDP. Changes in the compensation ratio reflect the extent to which changes in productivity are shared between labour and capital. The compensation ratio has decreased on average by 0.11% per year for the 55-year period ending in 2017 with a more significant decrease between 1992 and 2005 (an average decrease of 0.7% per year). Over the last 25 and 15 years periods ending in 2017 the compensation ratio has decreased on average by 0.28% and 0.06% respectively. It is assumed that there will be no change in the compensation ratio over the long term.

The earnings ratio is the ratio of total workers’ earnings to total compensation. The total workers’ earnings is defined as the sum of total wages, salary disbursements, and total self-employment earnings. Changes in the earnings ratio reflect changes in the compensation structure offered to employees. The historical decline in the earnings ratio of 0.20% per year from 1962 to 2017 has been primarily due to the faster growth in supplementary labour income, such as employer contributions to pension plans, health benefit plans, the CPP, and the Employment Insurance program, compared to earnings. Given that a significant portion of the historical decrease in the earnings ratio can be explained by the increase in CPP contributions resulting from the increase in the contribution rate from 3.6% in 1986 to 9.9% in 2003, the earnings ratio is not expected to decline as fast as it has in the past. However, the increase in CPP contributions resulting from the new additional Plan as of 2019 is expected to reduce the earnings ratio. As well, as a result of the aging of the population, it is expected that the cost of pension plans and health programs will continue to increase in the future and exert downward pressure on the earnings ratio. Based on the foregoing, it is assumed that the long-term earnings ratio will decline by 0.05% per year.

The average hours worked is defined as the ratio of total hours worked to total employment in the Canadian economy. The average annual growth rate for average hours worked was -0.34% over the 55-year period ending in 2017. There was a significant decrease in the average hours worked between 1965 and 1983, with an average annual decrease over that period of 0.7% per year. Despite short-term fluctuations, the average hours worked stabilized after 1983, with an average decrease of 0.1% per year between 1984 and 2017. In the future, the assumed steady increases in productivity and the higher participation rates of older workers, who generally work fewer hours, could continue to apply negative pressure on the average hours worked. It is assumed that in the long term, the average hours worked will decline by 0.05% per year.

Finally, the price differential or “labour’s terms of trade” is the ratio of the GDP deflator (defined as the ratio of nominal to real GDP) to the CPI. Including this ratio is necessary because labour productivity is expressed in real terms by using real GDP, while current dollar earnings are converted to real earnings using the CPI. The average annual growth in the price differential was 0.09% between 1962 and 2017. However, during this period, the price differential experienced significant fluctuations. It increased at an average rate of 1.2% per year between 1962 and 1976 and decreased at an average rate of 0.6% per year between 1977 and 2002. In more recent years, the decline has reversed, such that between 2002 and 2017 the price differential increased by 0.27% per year. This recent trend is partially due to Canada’s improving international terms of trade. However, it is not clear for how long such growth could be sustained. It is assumed that the long term price differential will remain stable in the long term.

The result of the foregoing discussion is that the assumed real wage increase is 1.0% per year over the long term. Table 54 summarizes the historical information and the assumptions described above.

Table 54 Real Wage Increase and Related ComponentsTable 54 footnote 1
1962-2017
Average
1992-2017
Average
2002-2017
Average
Ultimate
Assumption
Labour Productivity Growth 1.59% 1.18% 0.83% 1.10%
+ Compensation Ratio Growth -0.11% -0.28% -0.06% 0.00%
+ Earnings Ratio Growth -0.20% -0.16% -0.20% -0.05%
+ Average Hours Worked Growth -0.34% -0.14% -0.23% -0.05%
+ Price Differential Growth 0.09% 0.11% 0.27% 0.00%
Real Wage Increase 1.01% 0.71% 0.62% 1.00%

Table 54 Footnotes

Footnote 1

Components may not sum to totals due to rounding.

Return to footnote 1

The average annual and weekly earnings are assumed to increase at the same pace, with real wage increases projected to gradually rise from 0.3% in 2019 to an ultimate value of 1.0% by 2025. This is consistent with the assumed moderate economic growth implicitly reflected in the assumption on the unemployment rate. Table 55 shows the assumptions regarding the annual increases in prices, real AAE, and real AWE.

Table 55 Inflation, Real AAE and AWE Increases (percentages
Year Price Increases Real Increases
Average Annual Earnings
(AAE)
Real Increases
Average Weekly Earnings
(AWE), (YMPE)
2019 2.00 0.30 0.30
2020 2.00 0.50 0.50
2021 2.00 0.60 0.60
2022 2.00 0.70 0.70
2023 2.00 0.80 0.80
2024 2.00 0.90 0.90
2025+ 2.00 1.00 1.00

B.4.5 Average Annual Earnings, Total Earnings and Pensionable Earnings

Average annual earnings are projected by taking into account past and expected structural demographic changes as well as the narrowing of the gap between average female and male employment earnings. As part of these projections, the average annual earnings of working beneficiaries are also taken into account. The ratio of female to male average employment earnings stood at about 48% in 1966 and was 77% in 2016. This ratio is projected to increase to 87% by 2050. Table 56 shows the projected average annual earnings by age group and sex for selected years.

Table 56 Average Annual Earnings (Canada less Québec, ages 18 to 69) (dollars)
Age Group Males Females
2019 2025 2050 2019 2025 2050
20-24 25,846 30,075 61,591 20,258 23,825 50,496
25-29 44,244 51,062 103,998 35,588 41,953 90,667
30-34 55,543 63,714 129,120 41,748 49,413 108,629
35-39 61,039 69,958 141,756 46,682 55,195 121,068
40-44 64,083 73,441 148,753 50,454 59,526 129,746
45-49 64,536 74,037 149,917 51,306 60,592 131,624
50-54 63,468 73,022 147,590 50,578 59,656 129,528
55-59 59,500 68,070 137,803 46,803 55,502 120,720
60-64 49,783 58,389 117,678 38,209 46,587 101,832
65-69 34,631 42,604 85,623 26,085 31,831 72,712
All Ages 51,890 60,424 22,682 40,792 48,657 106,230

Total earnings are the product of average earnings and the number of earners. Table 57 shows the projected average earnings and number of earners for each sex, the resulting total earnings, and the annual percentage increase in total earnings for Canada less Québec. The ultimate annual increase in total earnings is set to reach about 3.5%. This nominal increase comprises an ultimate inflation rate of 2.0%, real wage growth of 1.0%, and population growth for the age group 18 to 69 of 0.5%.

Table 57 Total Earnings (Canada less Québec, ages 18 to 69)
Year Average Annual Earnings Earners Total Earnings Annual Increase
in Total Earnings
Males Females Males Females
($) ($) (thousands) (thousands) ($ million) (%)
2019 51,890 40,792 8,166 7,563 732,277 3.7
2020 53,083 41,915 8,264 7,641 758,974 3.6
2021 54,359 43,110 8,346 7,707 785,928 3.6
2022 55,729 44,373 8,426 7,771 814,427 3.6
2023 57,192 45,717 8,487 7,822 842,988 3.5
2024 58,756 47,143 8,544 7,872 873,092 3.6
2025 60,424 48,657 8,597 7,918 904,728 3.6
2030 69,551 57,026 8,792 8,195 1,078,761 3.6
2035 80,084 66,778 9,026 8,519 1,291,680 3.7
2040 92,247 78,042 9,298 8,776 1,542,660 3.6
2045 106,348 91,088 9,616 9,063 1,848,125 3.7
2050 122,682 106,230 9,898 9,321 2,204,546 3.5
2055 141,631 123,788 10,104 9,525 2,610,127 3.4
2060 163,620 144,135 10,262 9,701 3,077,219 3.3
2065 189,187 167,650 10,425 9,887 3,629,902 3.4
2075 253,853 225,736 10,966 10,406 5,132,621 3.6
2085 341,129 303,368 11,602 10,992 7,292,564 3.5
2095 458,501 407,629 12,189 11,540 10,293,046 3.5

Average pensionable earnings in respect of the base CPP are computed by removing from average annual earnings the earnings of those earning less than the YBE and the portion of earnings in excess of the YMPE. Such removal is made using distributions of earners and earnings, which are based on individual earnings statistics. These distributions were determined using earnings statistics from 2014 to 2016 and are assumed to remain constant in the future. The average pensionable earnings by age, sex, and calendar year correspond to the average portion of individual employment earnings below the YMPE for a cohort of earners earning more than the YBE.

For the additional CPP, the same methodology as mentioned above applies but the average portion of individual employment earnings used goes up to the YAMPE. In 2019, the YMPE and YBE are respectively $57,400 and $3,500. The YAMPE is set at 107% of the YMPE in 2024 ($69,700 as projected in this report), and at 114% of the YMPE in 2025 ($76,400 as projected in this report) and thereafter, as per the CPP statute. The YMPE and the YAMPE are increased annually based on the average industrial aggregate wage in Canada as published by Statistics Canada. The projected average pensionable earnings by age and sex for selected years up to the YMPE and YAMPE are shown in Table 58 and Table 59, respectively.

Table 58 Average Pensionable Earnings up to YMPE (Canada less Québec) (dollars)
Age Group Males Females
2019 2025 2050 2019 2025 2050
20-24 26,557 30,588 60,579 21,975 25,458 51,496
25-29 38,742 44,761 90,536 34,096 39,709 82,288
30-34 43,772 50,620 103,102 37,232 43,455 90,715
35-39 45,585 52,779 107,917 39,385 45,982 96,002
40-44 46,394 53,749 110,094 41,029 47,897 99,998
45-49 46,487 53,867 110,335 41,563 48,567 101,431
50-54 46,186 53,563 109,482 41,361 48,312 100,791
55-59 44,352 51,251 104,147 39,477 46,148 95,777
60-64 41,380 47,928 96,031 36,273 42,746 87,750
65-69 37,374 43,457 86,529 31,185 36,190 75,094
All Ages 41,330 48,167 97,515 36,181 42,438 87,902
YMPE 57,400 67,100 140,500 57,400 67,100 140,500
Table 59 Average Pensionable Earnings up to YAMPE (Canada less Québec) (dollars)
Age Group Males Females
2019 2025 2050 2019 2025 2050
20-24 - 31,328 61,976 - 25,762 52,140
25-29 - 47,285 95,454 - 41,363 85,971
30-34 - 54,448 110,683 - 45,910 96,254
35-39 - 57,229 116,818 - 48,944 102,583
40-44 - 58,514 119,675 - 51,187 107,222
45-49 - 58,676 119,978 - 51,907 108,750
50-54 - 58,266 118,898 - 51,554 107,908
55-59 - 55,528 112,650 - 49,084 102,212
60-64 - 51,683 103,391 - 45,169 93,027
65-69 - 46,886 93,307 - 38,120 79,702
All Ages - 51,869 104,877 - 44,905 93,343
YAMPE - 76,400 160,100 - 76,400 160,100

The ratios of average pensionable earnings for males and females as a percentage of the YMPE and the YAMPE are slowly decreasing over time. This is due to the freezing of the YBE which has the effect that, over time, fewer and fewer workers are exempt from participating in the CPP. This, in turn, has the effect of increasing the number of earners with low earnings participating in the Plan. The ratio reduces over time for males mainly due to this YBE effect. The ratio also reduces for females, but to a smaller extent and thus is relatively stable as the YBE effect is mostly offset by the increase in their average pensionable earnings.

B.5 Contributions

Contributions are determined by multiplying together the number of contributors, average contributory earnings, and the contribution rate.

B.5.1 Proportion of Contributors

In order to be considered a contributor to the CPP in any given calendar year, one must have employment earnings exceeding the YBE. Accordingly, the proportion of contributors (in respect of the population) is determined by multiplying the proportion of all earners by the proportion of earners earning more than the YBE. This last proportion is determined for each age, sex, and calendar year by expressing the YBE as a percentage of average employment earnings and using distributions of earners and their earnings. The proportion of contributors is adjusted to reflect working beneficiaries. Table 60 presents the proportion of contributors by selected age groups and years for males and females.

Table 60 Proportion of Contributors to the CPP, by Age Group (percentages)
Males Females
Age Group 2019 2025 2050 2019 2025 2050
20-24 76.3 81.1 84.2 75.7 78.6 84.1
25-29 86.4 87.7 91.2 80.4 81.7 88.1
30-34 88.7 90.3 92.5 78.8 81.6 86.6
35-39 88.3 91.1 92.2 78.5 82.4 86.6
40-44 87.1 88.0 89.8 79.5 80.8 84.2
45-49 86.5 89.4 90.8 80.8 82.0 85.3
50-54 82.8 84.9 86.7 77.9 79.4 83.1
55-59 74.9 78.6 81.6 67.9 71.0 75.9
60-64 59.0 61.6 65.7 49.4 51.4 56.3
65-69 24.6 29.1 31.6 17.4 19.5 23.1
All Ages 76.1 78.3 80.8 69.2 70.8 75.5

B.5.2 Average Contributory Earnings

Average contributory earnings, which include contributory earnings of working beneficiaries, are determined for each age, sex, and year by subtracting the YBE from the average pensionable earnings shown in Table 58 and Table 59. The resulting average contributory earnings by age group and sex for selected years up to the YMPE and YAMPE are shown in Table 61 and Table 62, respectively.

Table 61 Average Contributory Earnings for Pensionable Earnings up to YMPE (dollars)
Age Group Males Females
2019 2025 2050 2019 2025 2050
20-24 23,057 27,088 57,079 18,475 21,958 47,996
25-29 35,242 41,261 87,036 30,596 36,209 78,788
30-34 40,272 47,120 99,602 33,732 39,955 87,215
35-39 42,085 49,279 104,417 35,885 42,482 92,502
40-44 42,894 50,249 106,594 37,529 44,397 96,498
45-49 42,987 50,367 106,835 38,063 45,067 97,931
50-54 42,686 50,063 105,982 37,861 44,812 97,291
55-59 40,852 47,751 100,647 35,977 42,648 92,277
60-64 37,880 44,428 92,531 32,773 39,246 84,250
65-69 33,874 39,957 83,029 27,685 32,690 71,594
All Ages 37,830 44,667 94,015 32,681 38,938 84,402
YMPE 57,400 67,100 140,500 57,400 67,100 140,500
Table 62 Average Contributory Earnings for Pensionable Earnings up to YAMPE (dollars)
Age Group Males Females
2019 2025 2050 2019 2025 2050
20-24 27,828 58,476 22,262 48,640
25-29 43,785 91,954 37,863 82,471
30-34 50,948 107,183 42,410 92,754
35-39 53,729 113,318 45,444 99,083
40-44 55,014 116,175 47,687 103,722
45-49 55,176 116,478 48,407 105,250
50-54 54,766 115,398 48,054 104,408
55-59 52,028 109,150 45,584 98,712
60-64 48,183 99,891 41,669 89,527
65-69 43,386 89,807 34,620 76,202
All Ages 48,369 101,377 41,405 89,843
YAMPE 76,400 160,100 76,400 160,100

B.5.3 Total Contributory Earnings

Contributory earnings for each given age, sex, and year are calculated as the product of the proportion of contributors, average contributory earnings, and the corresponding population. Total contributory earnings for each year are obtained by summing contributory earnings for each age and sex in that year.

Total contributory earnings are then adjusted upward to take into account the non-refundable portion of employer contributions arising generally in respect of (1) employees with multiple employers during a given year, (2) employees earning less than the YBE during a given year, including those who only work part of a year. The amount of non-refundable employer contributions increases total CPP contributions, which translates into higher underlying contributory earnings. As such, contributory earnings are adjusted only for the purpose of determining the correct amount of contributions.

The records of earnings from Service Canada, statistics on contributors from the “The CPP & OAS Stats Book 2018”, published by Employment and Social Development Canada, and information from the Canada Revenue Agency on base CPP contribution refunds were used to project the adjustment for contributory earnings up to the YMPE and YAMPE. The adjustment for earnings up to YMPE is projected to be 1.56% in 2019 and decreases to 1.50% over the projection period to account for the YBE being frozen at $3,500. The adjustment for earnings up to YAMPE is projected to be 1.50% in 2024 and decreases to 1.45% over the projection period also to account for the YBE being frozen at $3,500.

These adjustments reflect the change in the administration of overcontributions with the introduction of the additional CPP. Specifically, as of 2019, both employer and employee overcontributions will be applied first to maximizing contributors’ benefits under the base Plan. Any overcontributions remaining will then be applied toward maximizing benefits under the additional Plan. If there are still overcontributions remaining once maximizing benefits under both components of the CPP, a contribution refund will be issued to the contributor and the employer non-refundable portion would be allocated between the Canada Pension Plan Account and the Additional Canada Pension Plan Account.

Annual contributions are equal to the product of adjusted contributory earnings and the contribution rate. The contribution rates are set by law. For the base Plan, the legislated contribution has been 9.9% since 2003. For the additional Plan, the legislated first additional contribution rate is 2.0% as of 2023 (phased in starting in 2019) and the legislated second additional contribution rate is 8.0% as of 2024. Table 63 and Table 64 present the projected components of total unadjusted contributory earnings, the total adjusted contributory earnings, as well as the projected YMPE and YAMPE, for pensionable earnings up to the YMPE and YAMPE, respectively.

Table 63Total Adjusted Contributory Earnings for Pensionable Earnings up to YMPE
Year Unadjusted Average
Contributory Earnings
YMPE Contributors Total
Adjusted
Contributory
Earnings
Annual Increase in
Total Adjusted
Contributory
Earnings
Males Female Males Females
($) ($) ($) (thousands) (thousands) ($ million) (%)
2019 37,830 32,681 57,400 7,608 6,920 521,967 4.3
2020 38,764 33,553 58,700 7,710 7,003 542,126 3.9
2021 39,820 34,518 60,200 7,795 7,074 563,194 3.9
2022 40,939 35,537 61,800 7,880 7,146 585,498 4.0
2023 42,084 36,588 63,400 7,946 7,206 607,349 3.7
2024 43,341 37,731 65,200 8,010 7,264 630,884 3.9
2025 44,667 38,938 67,100 8,071 7,320 655,541 3.9
2030 51,983 45,634 77,800 8,299 7,636 791,884 3.9
2035 60,368 53,381 90,200 8,586 8,013 960,579 3.9
2040 70,028 62,293 104,600 8,889 8,313 1,157,737 3.8
2045 81,104 72,510 121,200 9,224 8,631 1,394,863 3.7
2050 94,015 84,402 140,500 9,510 8,912 1,671,351 3.6
2055 109,079 98,265 162,900 9,719 9,136 1,987,685 3.4
2060 126,605 114,364 188,900 9,883 9,332 2,353,547 3.4
2065 146,936 132,989 219,000 10,065 9,542 2,789,376 3.5
2075 197,779 179,204 294,300 10,643 10,098 3,973,597 3.6
2085 266,224 241,114 395,500 11,285 10,703 5,669,320 3.6
2095 358,483 324,448 531,600 11,867 11,259 8,026,025 3.5
Table 64Total Adjusted Contributory Earnings for Pensionable Earnings up to YAMPE
YearTable 64 footnote 1 Unadjusted Average
Contributory Earnings
YMPE Contributors Total
Adjusted
Contributory
Earnings
Annual Increase in
Total Adjusted
Contributory
Earnings
Males Female Males Females
($) ($) ($) (thousands) (thousands) ($ million) (%)
2024 45,208 38,994 69,700 8,010 7,264 655,074 N/A
2025 48,369 41,405 76,400 8,071 7,320 703,904 7.5
2030 56,236 48,538 88,600 8,299 7,636 849,843 3.8
2035 65,265 56,800 102,800 8,586 8,013 1,030,611 4.0
2040 75,632 66,286 119,200 8,889 8,313 1,241,434 3.8
2045 87,518 77,172 138,100 9,224 8,631 1,495,083 3.7
2050 101,377 89,843 160,100 9,510 8,912 1,790,826 3.6
2055 117,571 104,625 185,700 9,719 9,136 2,129,468 3.5
2060 136,379 121,759 215,300 9,883 9,332 2,520,482 3.4
2065 158,208 141,587 249,600 10,065 9,542 2,986,430 3.5
2075 212,859 190,761 335,500 10,643 10,098 4,252,999 3.7
2085 286,402 256,572 450,800 11,285 10,703 6,065,581 3.6
2095 385,589 345,180 606,000 11,867 11,259 8,585,473 3.5

Table 64 Footnotes

Footnote 1

The years shown start in 2024 since it is the first year the YAMPE applies.

Return to footnote 1

B.6 Investment Assumptions

The total assets of the CPP at the end of any given year throughout the projection period are simply determined by adding together the total assets at the end of the previous year, projected investment income and contribution revenues of the given year, and then subtracting the projected benefits and operating expenses of the given year.

B.6.1 Net Assets as at 31 December 2018

The following discusses only the assets of the base CPP as at 31 December 2018, since the additional CPP starts in 2019 and thus has no assets as at 31 December 2018.

The actual value of the base CPP assets on a market-value accrual basis as at 31 December 2018 was $371,700 million. This is the sum of the CPP Account ($188 million) and the CPPIB invested assets ($368,490 million) for a total of $368,678 million before being adjusted by the amounts receivable minus amounts payable.

The CPP Account was established in respect of the base Plan to record the contributions, interest, pensions, other benefits, and operating expenses. It also records the amounts transferred to and received from the CPPIB. The receivables include the contributions due but not yet deposited into the CPP Account, benefit overpayments, and net transfers between the CPP and the QPP for dual contributors. The amounts payable include operating expenses, pensions and other benefits, as well as amounts due to the CRA. Benefit and operating expenditures are described in detail in sections B.7 and B.8, respectively of this appendix.

Table 65 reconciles the assets of the base CPP as at 31 December 2018.

Table 65Net Assets as at 31 December 2018 - Base CPP ($ million)
CPP Account 188
CPPIB Invested Assets 368,490
Subtotal CPP Account and CPPIB Invested Assets 368,678
Plus Amounts Receivable
Contributions 3,263
Benefit Overpayments 72
Net Transfers Due from QPP 126
Minus Amounts Payable
Operating Expenses 6
Pensions and Other Benefits 204
Amounts Due to the Canada Revenue Agency 229
Net Base CPP Assets 371,700

B.6.2 Investment Strategy and Two-Pool Structure

The CPPIB invests funds according to its own investment policies that take into account the needs of contributors and beneficiaries, as well as financial market constraints. For the purpose of this 30th CPP Actuarial Report, the CPPIB investments have been grouped into three broad categories:

  • Equities, consisting of public and private equities;

  • Fixed income securities, consisting of nominal fixed income (marketable bonds and non-marketable bonds), credit, and cash; and

  • Real assets.

The foundation of the CPPIB’s investment strategy is a two-asset portfolio called the “reference portfolio”. This portfolio sets how much risk the CPPIB is willing to take in accordance with its mandate. The reference portfolio comprises a global equity benchmark and a Canadian government nominal bonds benchmark. The higher the equity share, the higher the associated risk. Since the previous triennial actuarial valuation, the CPPIB has progressively shifted its asset allocation toward a reference portfolio consisting of 85% global equity and 15% Canadian government nominal bondsFootnote 12.

Recognizing the distinct natures of the base and additional CPP, the CPPIB Board approved two different reference portfolios applicable for each component of the Plan. The reference portfolio applicable to the base CPP is maintained at 85% global equity and 15% Canadian government nominal bonds, whereas, the reference portfolio applicable to the additional CPP consists of 50% global equity and 50% Canadian government nominal bonds.

In order to invest the base and additional CPP funds according to their respective reference portfolios, the CPPIB designed a two-pool investment structure. The base CPP’s actual assets as of 31 December 2018 constitute the Core pool and are invested according to the base CPP’s investment policy. The additional CPP assets are invested in two pools: the Core pool and the Supplementary pool. The Supplementary pool solely comprises fixed income securities. The share of the additional CPP’s assets invested in each of the Core and Supplementary pools is determined such that the overall level of risk of the additional CPP is consistent with its reference portfolio. Chart 12 presents a schematic of the two-pool investment structure for the CPP invested assets.

Chart 12 - Illustrative Two-Pool Investment Structure of the CPP

Chart 12
Description

Flow chart showing a schematic of the two-pool investment structure for the CPP invested assets.

On the top left, for the additional CPP, two stacked boxes represent a proportion of 50 to 70% for the bottom box and a proportion of 30 to 50% for the top box. The top box points to another box representing 100% fixed income and designated as the Supplementary Pool. The bottom box is pointing to another box representing a diversified portfolio of equities, fixed income and real assets, together designated as the Core Pool.

On the bottom left, for the base CPP, one box represents a proportion of 100%. That box points to the box designated as the Core Pool.

The CPPIB diversifies its holdings and thus sources of returns, while respecting the risk level of its reference portfolios. As a result, the base and additional CPP assets are invested in more than two types of assets. The portfolios capturing that diversification are called the strategic portfolios. The CPPIB uses the strategic portfolios to express its long-term goal for allocating assets by asset classes and geographic regions. In its 2018 and 2019 Annual Reports, the CPPIB signaled its intention to increase the CPP Fund’s exposure to emerging marketsFootnote 13. This intention is reflected in all assumptions presented in this section.

As at 31 December 2018, the asset mix of the base CPP consisted of 56% equities, 18% fixed income securities, and 26% real assets. Table 66 further categorizes the actual assets under CPPIB management into the asset classes identified at the beginning of this section, which correspond to the strategic portfolio’s asset classes.

Table 66 Base CPP (Core Pool) Initial Asset Mix as at 31 December 2018 (percentages)
Equity Fixed Income Securities Real Assets
Public Equities Private Equities Marketable Bonds Non-Marketable Bonds Credit Cash
32 24 17 6 9 -14Table 66 footnote 1 26

Table 66 Footnotes

Footnote 1

A negative allocation to cash represents financial leverage. This indicates that funds are borrowed in order to increase the amounts invested in the other asset classes. Leverage is profitable when the return obtained by investing in the other asset classes is greater than the cost of borrowing.

Return to footnote 1

B.6.3 Investment Income

In general, investment income from a given asset within a portfolio is the product of the market value of that asset and its projected nominal rate of return (which is obtained by adding the applicable projected real rate of return, as described in section B.6.4 below, to the projected inflation rate).

The investment income of the CPP is based on the assumed real rate of return applicable to each type of asset, projected inflation, and the projected asset mix and cash flows. In addition, the assumed real rate of return at the portfolio level includes an allowance for rebalancing and diversification (discussed in section B.6.5). Investment income is also adjusted downward to recognize investment expenses (discussed in section B.6.6).

B.6.4 Real Rates of Return

Real rates of return are required for the projection of revenue arising from investment income. They are assumed for each year of the projection period and for each of the main asset classes in which CPP assets are invested. All real rates of return described in this section are shown before reduction for assumed investment expenses.

The real rates of return were developed by looking at historical returns (expressed in Canadian dollars) and adjusting the returns upward or downward to reflect expectations that differ from the past. Both public market data and customized benchmarks prepared by the CPPIB were used to analyze the historical experience.

Future currency variations will impact the real rates of return over the projection period, creating gains and losses. However, as the projection period is over 75 years, these gains and losses are expected to offset each other over time. Thus, it is assumed that currency variations will not have an impact on the real rates of return.

The future outlook is based on the assumption that, over the short-to-medium term, federal bond yields are expected to increase, as their current levels are low by historical standards. The speed of that increase, however, is uncertain. The demand for long-term sovereign bonds, in Canada and abroad, remains strong, and central banks of developed economies are moving cautiously to increase interest rates. Nevertheless, the 75-year time horizon of this report warrants a long-term approach that is expected to be generally consistent with the historical long-term averages of federal bond yields.

B.6.4.1 Fixed Income Securities

As at 31 December 2018, the CPPIB had 18% of its portfolio invested in fixed income securities, split between nominal fixed income, credit, and cash. Nominal fixed income can be further divided into a non-marketable bond portfolio composed of bonds with various terms to maturity, representing loans made to the provinces, and a marketable bond portfolio consisting of federal and provincial bonds. Starting 1 January 2019, the CPPIB will invest part of the additional CPP’s contributions in a Supplementary pool composed of fixed income securities.

Non-Marketable Bond Portfolio and Rollover Rates (Loans to Provinces, Core Pool)

The non-marketable bond portfolio at the end of 2018 represented 6% of all CPP assets. The provinces are allowed to roll over at maturity for a further 20-year term any bonds that were purchased prior to the 1997 CPP amendments (that came into effect on 1 January 1998). In lieu of exercising their statutory rollover right, an agreement between the provinces and the CPPIB permits each province to repay a bond and contract a replacement bond or bonds for a term of at least five years, with a total principal amount not exceeding the principal amount of the maturing bond and total successive terms of not more than 30 years. During the 20-year period 1999 to 2018, 68% of provincial bonds available for rollover were rolled over at or before maturity. The rollover proportion increases to 99% when considering the five-year period from 2014 to 2018, and to 100% when considering the three-year period 2016 to 2018. Using this rollover experience, it is assumed that the rollover rate will be 98% for 2019 and thereafter. The last non-marketable bond is expected to mature in 2043.

On the basis of the average short-, medium-, and long-term experience of the spread between the annual yields on federal and provincial bonds, the current outlook of the economy, and data on rollovers since 1999, a spread over the federal yield was determined for each province. The initial spreads on rollover bonds are set at the actual market spreads at the end of 2018 for provincial bonds issued by the given province. The ultimate spreads, applicable from 2029, are set at the average spreads of provincial bonds issued by a given province during the period of 2000 to 2018, excluding 2008 and 2009. Spreads during the global financial crisis (2008-2009) were abnormally high and were thus ignored in the determination of the ultimate spreads. The weighted long-term average spread for all provinces is approximately 70 basis points. The ultimate annual long-term real federal bonds yield is assumed to be 2.6%, as discussed in the following section. Therefore, an ultimate annual real yield of approximately 3.3% for provincial rollover bonds is assumed for 2029 and thereafter.

The real rate of return of the non-marketable bond portfolio is calculated by taking into consideration any coupon payments made throughout the year, as well as the change in the market value of the portfolio due to changes in the assumed yield rates and in the term to maturity of each bond. Coupons paid and redemption values of bonds at maturity are assumed to be reinvested in the marketable bond portfolio.

Marketable Bond Portfolio (Core Pool)

As the non-marketable bond portfolio matures over the next three decades, it is assumed that the proceeds will be invested in marketable bonds and that the marketable bond portfolio will consist of federal and provincial bonds in varying proportions. The initial asset mix of the marketable bond portfolio is estimated from the CPPIB’s 31 December 2018 financial statements. In addition to Canadian federal and provincial bonds, the CPPIB’s marketable bond portfolio also includes an allocation to foreign sovereign bonds. For the purpose of this report, it was assumed that foreign sovereign bonds would be mostly from developed economies and that they could be approximated by Canadian federal bonds. Hence, the starting composition of the marketable bond portfolio is assumed to be 85% federal and 15% provincial bonds. For the previous triennial CPP actuarial report, corporate bonds were included as a part of the marketable bonds portfolio. For this report, it is assumed that corporate bond holdings of the CPPIB are part of the credit asset class.

It is assumed that the CPPIB will purchase a variety of federal and provincial bonds in proportions consistent with the CPPIB’s investment strategy. It is also assumed that maturing non-marketable bonds will be mostly reinvested in provincial bonds. It is thus assumed that the ultimate marketable bond mix applicable for 2029 and thereafter will be composed of 60% federal and 40% provincial bonds.

The real yield on long-term federal bonds as at 31 December 2018 is about 0.2% and is assumed to gradually increase to 2.6% by 2029 and remain at that level thereafter (the same ultimate value but by 2025 in the previous valuation). The real yields for federal bonds of shorter maturities, as well as for provincial bonds are based on the real yield on long-term federal bonds adjusted based on historical spreads. The initial spreads over the real yield on federal long-term bonds are based on spreads prevailing as at 31 December 2018 and reflect the current economic environment.

Since the long-term federal bond yield is assumed to increase between 2019 and 2029 and only stabilize at the end of 2029, bond returns are quite low for the first ten years of the projection. The assumed average maturity of federal and provincial bonds are estimated based on the CPPIB’s holdings as at 31 December 2018 and are assumed to remain constant throughout the projection period. The average maturity is set at 7.0 years for federal bonds and 13.5 years for provincial bonds. The assumed average ultimate real rates of return for federal and provincial bonds of various maturities are 1.9% and 2.7% respectively. The assumed real rate of return of the marketable bond portfolio, once bond yields have stabilized, is lower than the corresponding assumed real rate of return of the previous actuarial report because corporate bonds are now considered part of the credit asset class (2.2% instead of 2.7% before investment expenses).

Supplementary Pool

The Supplementary pool is expected to be composed mainly of high-quality fixed income securities such that the mix of Core pool and Supplementary pool assets provides the desired risk profile for the additional CPP. For the purpose of this report, the composition of the Supplementary pool is assumed to be similar to the ultimate composition of the marketable bond portfolio. Therefore, the pool is assumed to be composed of 60% federal and 40% provincial bonds. However, it is assumed that the Supplementary pool will have a higher proportion of long-term bonds compared to the marketable bond portfolio. Therefore, the ultimate average maturity of the Supplementary pool’s bonds is assumed to be 11.0 years compared to 9.6 years for the Core pool marketable bond portfolio. Due to this higher allocation to long-term bonds, the ultimate real rate of return for the Supplementary pool is slightly higher at 2.3% (compared to a real rate of return of 2.2% for Core pool marketable bonds). Similar to the Core pool marketable bonds portfolio, the real rates of return of the Supplementary pool are expected to be low over the first few projection years due to the projected increase in yields.

Credit

The credit asset class includes investments in corporate bonds, private debt, and private real estate debt. At the end of 2018, the CPPIB had approximately 9% of its net assets invested in this asset class. For the purpose of this report, the expected real rate of return on credit is assumed to correspond to the return on a diversified portfolio of corporate bonds, adjusted to reflect the risk of the CPPIB’s actual holdings. Such adjustments include an assumed increased exposure to emerging markets. The returns on the diversified portfolio of corporate bonds are derived from projected corporate yields, which are themselves obtained by adding a credit spread to the projected yields of a diversified portfolio of Canadian federal bonds. It is assumed that the credit spread between a diversified portfolio of corporate bonds and federal bonds will ultimately be 1.0%. The expected real rate of return of the credit portfolio is low during the first projection years, as the increase in federal bond yields (and the corresponding low returns) is expected to counter the effect of other factors such as credit spreads and increased emerging market exposure. The ultimate real rate of return is assumed to be 2.9% from 2029 onward.

CPP Account, Additional CPP Account, and Cash

The CPP Account is established in the accounts of Canada to record the transactions of the base Plan and amounts transferred to and from the CPPIB in respect of the base Plan. Historically, the CPP Account, held by the federal Department of Finance, consisted of an operating balance and short-term investments. The assets of the CPP Account not needed to meet immediate base Plan payments were transferred to the CPPIB in monthly installments between September 2004 and August 2005. As such, the balance in the CPP Account is now minimal, serving only as a flow-through account with investments solely in short-term securities.

The Additional CPP Account is a new account established in the accounts of Canada. Similar to the CPP Account, the Additional CPP Account is a flow-through account that records the transactions of the additional Plan and amounts transferred to and from the CPPIB in respect of the additional Plan.

The CPPIB uses financial leverage as part of its investment strategy. Financial leverage in the context of portfolio management consists of borrowing money to invest in additional assets with the expectation that the borrowing cost will be less than the return on the assets purchased. As at 31 December 2018, CPPIB’s external debt and financing liability represented about 14% of its net assets. While previous actuarial reports did not explicitly recognize the leverage component of the CPPIB’s investment strategy, for the purpose of this report, it was decided that the amount of leverage increased to a level that warrants explicit recognition of it in the asset allocation. The borrowing cost related to financial leverage is assumed to correspond to the expected real rate of return on cash. The initial assumed real rate of return on cash is low, reflecting the current environment, with a smooth transition assumed from the initial to the ultimate assumption of 1.0% for 2029 and thereafter.

B.6.4.2 Equity

The CPPIB assets invested in equities are currently diversified among public and private equities and across various geographies. In the derivation of the real rates of return for these equity investments, consideration was given to the long-term equity risk premium, which includes dividends and market value fluctuations. No distinction is made between realized and unrealized capital gains. Custom equity benchmarks provided by the CPPIB were considered in the derivation of real rates of return for equities.

Public equities

Public equities comprise developed and emerging markets publicly traded equities. Consistent with the assumption that risk taken must be rewarded, equity real rates of returns are developed by adding an equity risk premium to the expected real rate of return on cashFootnote 14. The historical equity risk premium over cash worldwide for the 119-year and 50-year periods ending in 2018 were 4.2% and 4.0% respectivelyFootnote 15. It is assumed that historical equity risk premiums were higher due to several non-repeatable factors (mainly diversification and globalization). As a result, the long-term expected equity risk premium is assumed to be lower than what was realized in the past 119 years. However, for developed markets, the equity risk premium is assumed to be higher in the first eight years of the projection, reflecting assumed low cash returns over the same period, before reaching an assumed ultimate rate of 3.1%. The equity risk premium for emerging market equities is expected to be 90 basis points higher than for developed market equities, reflecting the additional risk inherent with investments in emerging countries.

It is assumed that the exposure to emerging market public equities will increase. As a result, the expected return on public equities is assumed to increase over the projection period, as the equity risk premium is assumed to be greater for emerging market equities than for developed market equities. The real rate of return on public equities is assumed to be 3.9% at the start of the projection period and to reach 4.3% by 2025.

Private equities

Compared to public equities, private equities are less liquid and their management necessitates a higher degree of expertise. Private equities may also provide investors the opportunity to invest at an earlier stage in the development of a company, which translates into additional risk and greater potential returns. As a result, the return structure of private equities is different compared to public equities. Private equities are expected to generate an additional return in exchange for additional risk.

In general, private investments have grown in popularity over the last decade. This increase in demand has not necessarily been matched by an increase in supply. Valuations are high and a significant amount of capital is waiting to be allocated at attractive prices. As more and more investors around the globe compete for private placements, it is assumed that the additional return from investing in private equities compared to public equities will decrease. The real rate of return on private equities is assumed to be 5.7% at the start of the projection period and to gradually decrease to 4.9% by 2025.

B.6.4.3 Real Assets

Real assets such as real estate, infrastructure, and natural resources are considered to share some characteristics of fixed income and equities, as well as to have some unique features related to their specific nature (such as illiquidity). The expected real rate of return on real assets is thus influenced by these features. In addition, the ultimate real rate of return on real assets assumes a greater exposure to emerging markets than as at 31 December 2018. Combined with a low expected real rate of return on fixed income at the start of the projection period, the real rate of return on real assets is expected to increase steadily from its assumed initial value of 1.6% in 2019 to reach an ultimate value of 4.1% in 2029.

B.6.4.4 Summary of Real Rates of Return by Asset Type

Table 67 summarizes the assumed real rates of return by asset type throughout the projection period, before reduction for investment expenses. Compared to the previous triennial report, the rates of return by asset type are presented with no allocation for rebalancing and diversification (discussed in section B.6.5). The rebalancing and diversification allocation is presented at the portfolio level in Table 68 for the base CPP and Table 69 for the additional CPP.

It is important to recognize that rates of return for most assets are volatile. The real rates of return presented in Table 67 represent expected trends and assumed levels of returns to be obtained over a long horizon. As such, limited emphasis should be put on individual projection years.

Table 67 Real Rates of Return by Asset Type (before investment expenses) (percentages)
Year Equity Fixed Income Securities Real Assets
Public Equities Private Equities Marketable Bonds Non-Marketable Bonds Supplementary Pool Credit Cash
2019 3.9 5.7 -2.1 -2.2 -3.0 0.2 -0.4 1.6
2020 4.0 5.5 -2.1 -2.0 -3.1 0.3 0.0 1.7
2021 4.1 5.3 0.2 0.9 0.1 1.6 0.4 3.0
2022 4.2 5.2 0.3 0.6 0.2 1.7 0.5 3.1
2023 4.2 5.1 0.5 1.0 0.4 1.9 0.6 3.2
2024 4.3 5.0 0.6 1.1 0.6 2.0 0.7 3.3
2025 4.3 4.9 0.8 1.2 0.7 2.1 0.8 3.5
2026 4.3 4.9 1.0 1.5 0.9 2.2 0.9 3.5
2027 4.3 4.9 1.7 2.5 1.7 2.6 1.0 3.9
2028 4.3 4.9 1.7 2.4 1.8 2.7 1.0 3.9
2029 4.3 4.9 2.2 3.2 2.3 2.9 1.0 4.1
2030 4.3 4.9 2.2 3.3 2.3 2.9 1.0 4.1
2035 4.3 4.9 2.2 2.7 2.3 2.9 1.0 4.1
2040 4.3 4.9 2.2 1.8 2.3 2.9 1.0 4.1
2045 4.3 4.9 2.2 0.0 2.3 2.9 1.0 4.1

B.6.5 Asset Allocation and Expected Portfolio Rates of Return

This report provides a projection of over 75 years. As such, a long-term asset mix assumption is required, both for the base and additional CPP. As the base CPP matures and the Plan’s participants age, the ratio of contributors to beneficiaries will decrease, and the proportion of investment income required to pay benefits will increase. Starting in 2022, it is expected that contributions will be insufficient to cover all expenditures, and that a portion of investment income will be required to cover expenditures. The portion of investment income required to pay expenditures will be small at the beginning but will increase over time, reaching 22.7% in 2050 and 36.1% in 2090 (see Table 13 in Section 4 of the report). Therefore, the importance of reliable investment income will grow over time for the base CPP. The additional CPP will rely even more on investment income due to the difference in its financing approach compared to the base CPP. Deviations in the additional CPP portfolio’s rate of return will greatly impact the sustainability of that plan as a result of the higher reliance of the additional Plan on investment income. Given the long horizon of this report, it is important to consider how much investment risk is appropriate for the base and additional CPP over the long term, bearing in mind how each part is affected by investment returns.

For both the base and additional Plans, the expected portfolio real rates of return include an allowance for rebalancing and diversification of the assets. This allowance takes into account the beneficial effect of periodically rebalancing a diversified portfolio, thereby selling assets that have appreciated in relative value and buying assets that have declined in relative value. In other words, the expected geometric return of a portfolio is greater than the weighted average of the expected return of its components. The size of the allowance depends on the asset mix and the risk characteristics of the individual assets.

Base CPP

It is assumed that the level of risk of the base CPP investment portfolio will decrease over time. Consistent with the CPPIB’s current reference portfolio for the base CPP, a level of risk equivalent to that of a reference portfolio of about 85% equity and 15% fixed income is assumed initially. The volatility of the initial base CPP portfolio, as measured by the one-year standard deviation of return, is estimated at 13.4% annuallyFootnote 16. Thereafter, it is projected that the annual standard deviation of the rates of return will gradually decrease to 10.7%, equivalent to a hypothetical reference portfolio of about 70% equity and 30% fixed income. The decrease in portfolio risk is assumed to progress in three-year steps reflecting the triennial review of the CPP. Hence, the asset mix is projected to progress from its initial allocation (CPP assets as at 31 December 2018) to a portfolio constructed to match the level of risk of a hypothetical reference portfolio of 70% equity and 30% fixed income. Table 68 presents the projected asset allocation, the expected volatility of the portfolio, and the expected portfolio real rates of return before investment expenses.

Due to the three-year steps progression of the asset mix, the total portfolio real rates of return do not move in a linear fashion. The expected real rates of return tend to decrease each time the level of risk of the portfolio decrease towards its ultimate level. At the same time, expected returns on fixed income are expected to gradually increase up to their ultimate values once yields stabilize. The net effect is a general increasing trend in total portfolio real rates of return with periodic adjustments corresponding to periodic portfolio risk recalibration.

Table 68 Asset Mix, Portfolio Risk and Expected Rates of Return (before investment expenses) Base CPP (%)
Year Equity Fixed Income Securities Real Assets Expected One-Year standard deviation Total Real Rate of ReturnTable 68 footnote 1, Table 68 footnote 2
Public Equities Private Equities Marketable Bonds Non-Marketable Bonds Credit Cash
2019 32 24 17 6 9 -14 26 13.4 3.05
2020 32 24 18 5 9 -14 26 13.3 3.05
2021 32 24 18 5 9 -14 26 13.3 3.97
2022 29 22 19 4 9 -9 26 12.4 3.82
2023 29 22 19 4 9 -9 26 12.4 3.89
2024 29 22 20 3 9 -9 26 12.4 3.94
2025 26 21 20 3 10 -5 26 11.5 3.84
2026 26 21 20 2 10 -5 26 11.6 3.90
2027 26 21 20 2 10 -5 26 11.6 4.19
2028 23 19 20 2 10 0 26 10.7 4.05
2029 23 19 20 2 10 0 26 10.7 4.23
2030 23 19 20 2 10 0 26 10.7 4.23
2035 23 19 21 1 10 0 26 10.7 4.22
2040 23 19 22 0 10 0 26 10.7 4.21
2045 23 19 22 0 10 0 26 10.7 4.21

Table 68 Footnotes

Footnote 1

The assumed total real rate of return is shown before reduction for investment expenses. The assumed total real rate of return net of expenses is obtained by reducing the total real rate of return by 20 basis points.

Return to footnote 1

Footnote 2

The assumed total real rate of return includes an allocation for rebalancing and diversification. At the portfolio level, this allocation is assumed to add 0.45% to the rate of return annually over the projection period.

Return to footnote 2

Additional CPP

The additional CPP assets are invested in both the Core and Supplementary pools. The share of the additional CPP assets invested in each pool is selected in order to match the desired level of risk of the additional CPP’s reference portfolio. To increase the total portfolio risk of the additional CPP, a higher allocation to the Core pool would be selected, and vice-versa if a lower level of risk was desired.

It is assumed that the level of risk of the additional CPP will be kept constant over the projection period at a level corresponding to the current CPPIB reference portfolio of about 50% equity and 50% fixed income. During the first few projection years, this level of risk is obtained by investing 55% of the additional CPP’s assets in the Core pool and 45% in the Supplementary pool. Because the level of risk of the Core pool’s investment returns is expected to decrease gradually, a higher share of the additional CPP’s assets is expected to be allocated to the Core pool to maintain the additional CPP’s portfolio volatility at 6.6%. As shown in Table 69, 66% of the additional CPP’s assets are assumed to be allocated to the Core pool for the year 2028 and thereafter.

Table 69 Asset Mix, Portfolio Risk and Expected Rates of Return (before investment expenses) Additional CPP (%)
Year Core Pool Allocation Supplementary Pool Allocation Expected One-Year standard deviation Total Real Rate of ReturnTable 69 footnote 1, Table 69 footnote 2
2019 55 45 6.6 0.55
2020 55 45 6.6 0.49
2021 55 45 6.6 2.40
2022 58 42 6.6 2.50
2023 58 42 6.6 2.61
2024 58 42 6.6 2.72
2025 62 38 6.6 2.82
2026 62 38 6.6 2.92
2027 62 38 6.6 3.41
2028 66 34 6.6 3.42
2029 66 34 6.6 3.71
2030 66 34 6.6 3.71

Table 69 Footnotes

Footnote 1

The assumed total real rate of return is shown before reduction for investment expenses. For all years except 2019, the assumed total real rate of return net of expenses is obtained by reducing the total real rate of return by 13 basis points.

Return to footnote 1

Footnote 2

The assumed total real rate of return includes an allocation for rebalancing and diversification. At the portfolio level, this allocation is assumed to add 0.45% to the rate of return annually over the projection period.

Return to footnote 2

B.6.6 Investment Expenses

Over the last three calendar years, CPPIB’s total investment expenses consisting of operating expenses, transaction costs, and investment management fees have averaged 0.95% of assets. The majority of those investment expenses were incurred through active management decisions. Considering how total investment expenses evolved over the last decade, it is assumed that, going forward, CPPIB investment expenses related to the Core pool will be 1.00% of the corresponding assets.

The active management objective is to generate returns in excess of those of the CPP reference portfolios, after reduction for the additional expenses incurred from active management. Thus, the additional returns from a successful active management program should equal at least the cost incurred to pursue active management. For the purpose of this report, it is assumed that the additional returns generated by active management will equal the additional expenses incurred from active management. Those expenses are assumed to be 0.8% for the Core pool (and thus the base CPP), which is the difference between the assumed total investment expenses of 1.0% and the investment expenses of 0.2% that would be incurred from passive management of the portfolio, given that part of the portfolio is invested in private equity and real assets. The assumed investment expenses from passive management of 0.2% represent $756 million and $1,040 million in years 2019 and 2025, respectively.

The investment expenses of the additional CPP will depend on how much of the fund is invested in the Core pool versus the Supplementary pool, and the investment expenses associated with each of these pools. The investment expenses of the Core pool were discussed above and are expected to be 0.8% and 0.2% of net assets from active and passive management, respectively. Taking into account the CPPIB’s existing infrastructures, the investment expenses of the Supplementary pool (comprising solely fixed income) are assumed to be zero both from an active and passive management point of view. Therefore, the overall investment expenses related to the additional CPP are assumed to be equal to the share of the additional CPP invested in the Core pool multiplied by the assumed investment expenses of the Core pool. Because 66% of the additional CPP assets are expected to be invested in the Core pool ultimately, the investment expenses are assumed to be 0.53% and 0.13% from active and passive management, respectively. For simplicity, this cost is assumed to be constant over the projection period (except for 2019).

For the year 2019, the additional CPP investment expenses are adjusted to reflect the implementation costs incurred by the CPPIB before 2019. Total start-up costs represent $9 million or -1.1% in terms of the adjustment to the annual rate of return.

The following section shows the overall rate of return on CPP assets net of investment expenses for the base and additional CPP.

B.6.7 Overall Rate of Return on Base and Additional CPP Assets

The best-estimate rates of return on total assets for each of the base and additional Plans are derived from the weighted average assumed rates of return on all types of assets, using the assumed asset mix proportions as weights. The best-estimate rates of return are further adjusted to incorporate an allocation for rebalancing and diversification. In addition, the best-estimate rates of return are increased to reflect additional returns due to active management and reduced to reflect all investment expenses. The ultimate net rates of return are shown in Table 70.

Table 70 Overall Rate of Return on base and additional CPP Assets (percentages)
Base CPP Additional CPP
Nominal Real Nominal Real
Weighted Average Rate of Return (before investment expenses) 6.21 4.21 5.71 3.71
Additional Rate of Return due to Active Management 0.80 0.80 0.53 0.53
Total Weighted Average Rates of Return before Investment Expenses 7.01 5.01 6.24 4.24
Expected Investment Expenses
Expenses due to Passive Management -0.20 -0.20 -0.13 -0.13
Additional Expenses due to Active Management -0.80 -0.80 -0.53 -0.53
Total Expected Investment Expenses -1.00 -1.00 -0.66 -0.66
Ultimate Rate of Return after Investment Expenses 6.01 4.01 5.58 3.58

The resulting nominal and real rates of return for select projection years are shown in Table 71. The projected nominal returns are the sum of the assumed levels of inflation and real returns. The projected average annual real rate of return over the next 75 years is 3.95% for the base CPP and 3.38% for the additional CPP.

Table 71 Annual Rates of Return on CPP Assets (percentages)
Year Base CPP Additional CPP
Nominal Real Nominal Real
2019 4.85 2.85 1.31 -0.69Table 71 footnote 1
2020 4.85 2.85 2.36 0.36
2021 5.77 3.77 4.27 2.27
2022 5.62 3.62 4.37 2.37
2023 5.69 3.69 4.48 2.48
2030+ 6.01 4.01 5.58 3.58
Average over:
2019-2023 5.35 3.35 3.35 1.35
2019-2028 5.57 3.57 4.14 2.14
2019-2093 5.95 3.95 5.38 3.38

Table 71 Footnotes

Footnote 1

The 2019 real rate of return on the additional CPP assets is assumed to be negative due to the CPPIB’s implementation expenses (assumed to be $9 million) and the assumed increase in bond yields.

Return to footnote 1

The 75-year (2019-2093) average annual real rate of return on investments for the base CPP is 0.03% lower compared to the previous triennial valuation. This decrease is mainly due to lower expected returns on fixed income over that period compared to the previous valuation, mitigated by a different asset mix that would otherwise produce slightly higher returns during the first ten projection years.

For the additional CPP, the 75-year (2019-2093) average annual rate of return on investments decreases by 0.17% compared to the assumption of the 28th CPP Actuarial Report. This decrease is mainly attributed to a different fixed income composition and lower assumed initial rates of return over the first ten projection years.

B.7 Benefit Expenditures

B.7.1 Benefits Payable as at 31 December 2018 and Projecting Benefits

The number of base CPP beneficiaries in pay and average monthly benefits payable as at 31 December 2018 are shown in Table 72.

Table 72 Benefits Payable as at 31 December 2018 – Base CPP
Benefit Type Number of Beneficiaries in pay Average Monthly Benefit
Males Females Males Females
(thousands) ($) ($)
Retirement 2,517 2,704 680 481
Post-retirement Benefit 692 568 37 30
Survivor
- Aged less than 65 50 164 359 421
- Aged 65 and over 168 736 121 360
Disability 152 185 959 883
Benefit Type Number of Beneficiaries in pay Average Monthly Benefit
Males and Females Males and Females
(thousands) ($)
Orphan 58 244
Disabled Contributor’s Child 77 244

The approach used in this report to project future benefits paid is based on macrosimulation, which means that the projections rely on grouped data. The amount of benefit expenditures is determined by taking into account the administrative agreement between the CPP and the QPP for beneficiaries who had contributed to both plans.

The retirement, survivor, disability, and children’s benefit expenditures for each year following the year of benefit take-up for a given age, sex, and cohort is computed as the product of:

  • benefit expenditures in the year of take-up (described later in this Appendix);

  • the probability of survival from the age at benefit take-up to the attained age;

  • the rules regarding combined retirement and survivor benefits and combined disability and survivor benefits, as applicable; and

  • the Pension Index, which recognizes the annual inflation adjustment to benefits each 1 January following benefit emergence.

The amounts of the benefits payable during any given calendar year are then obtained by simply summing the annual expenditures applicable for the year as described above, in respect of all age and sex cohorts having emerged in the given and all previous calendar years. The projected number of beneficiaries and amounts of benefit expenditures for the base and additional Plans are shown in various tables in the Results sections 4 and 5 of this report.

All projections of base CPP benefits start from the year 1966 instead of the beginning of the current projection period (2019). This is done for the following reasons:

  • The valuation methodology can be validated for the historical period up to the valuation year (1966 to 2018) by comparing the projected values (contributions, benefits, beneficiaries, etc.) with actual experience. Based on this comparison, calibration factors are obtained which are then used for the projections of the different types of benefit. For example, the calibration factors for retirement benefit experience for those starting their pension between ages 60 and 65 are 0.97 for males and 0.96 for females.

  • The projection of benefits already in pay as at the valuation date (31 December 2018) is fully integrated with the projection of benefits emerging after that date thus ensuring full consistency between past experience and the future.

Since the additional Plan is a new component of the CPP as of 1 January 2019, there are no additional benefits in pay as at the valuation date. As such, the same calibration factors developed for the base Plan benefits are assumed to apply to the additional Plan projected benefits except in the case of the additional retirement benefits, where microsimulation was used to estimate the calibration factors. As experience develops for the additional Plan, more precise calibration factors for each type of benefit will be determined separately for that CPP component.

B.7.2 Benefit Eligibility Rates

As described in Appendix A (Summary of Plan Provisions) of this report, eligibility for benefits varies according to the type of benefit. The eligibility rules for the survivor benefit are the same as for the death benefit. The eligibility rules for base CPP benefits determine eligibility for additional CPP benefits.

Benefit eligibility rates (as a percentage of Canada less Québec population) for retirement, disability, and death/survivor benefits are projected using regression formulae that were developed to closely reproduce historical eligibility rates observed from CPP records of earnings data provided by ESDC over the period 1966 to 2016. The projected eligibility rates take into account the applicable eligibility rules for each type of benefit, the proportion of contributors, and the length of the contributory period for existing and future earners.

The disability and survivor benefit eligibility rates developed as above must be adjusted to project the earnings-related portion of these two types of benefits. Table 73 shows the resulting eligibility rates for the various benefit types by sex and age for selected years.

The retirement eligibility rates for some ages and years are greater than 100% due to individuals who contributed to the CPP and then left the country with no further information available as to their status. Since these individuals are not counted in the population, the retirement eligibility rates can be higher than 100%.

Table 73 Benefit Eligibility Rates by Type of Benefit (percentages)
Year Retirement Benefit Eligibility Rate at Age 65 Survivor/Death Benefit Eligibility Rate at Age 65
Males Females Males Females
2019 105.5 101.4 100.0 73.7
2020 105.0 101.2 100.0 74.6
2021 104.6 101.1 99.9 75.5
2022 104.2 101.0 99.8 76.3
2023 103.8 100.9 99.7 77.0
2024 103.3 100.8 99.6 77.6
2025 102.9 100.7 99.4 78.2
2030 101.1 99.7 98.2 80.4
2035 100.1 99.3 97.4 81.6
2040 100.9 100.2 96.9 82.4
2045 101.7 101.0 96.7 83.1
2050 101.6 100.9 96.8 83.6
2055 102.5 101.8 97.1 84.2
2060 102.6 101.9 97.6 84.7
2065 102.4 101.8 97.9 85.1
2075 103.0 102.4 98.5 85.8
2085 103.8 103.3 99.0 86.5
2095 103.8 103.4 99.3 86.9
Year Survivor/Death Benefit Eligibility Rate at Ages 20-64 Disability Benefit Eligibility Rate at Ages 20-64Table 73 footnote 1 Post-Retirement Disability Benefit Eligibility Rate at Ages 60-64Table 73 footnote 2
Males Females Males Females Males Females
2019 81.0 72.4 73.7 66.4 52.4 45.1
2020 81.2 72.8 74.3 67.2 53.1 45.8
2021 81.0 72.8 74.9 67.7 53.8 46.3
2022 81.1 73.1 75.4 68.1 55.0 47.2
2023 81.5 73.5 76.2 68.8 55.4 47.6
2024 82.5 74.2 77.0 69.4 55.3 47.6
2025 82.7 74.5 77.4 69.7 55.6 47.8
2030 83.8 75.9 78.9 71.7 57.4 49.7
2035 85.2 77.3 79.9 73.5 58.6 50.9
2040 86.2 78.2 80.5 74.5 59.7 52.1
2045 86.9 78.9 80.2 74.5 59.9 52.5
2050 87.5 79.3 80.1 74.7 59.9 52.6
2055 87.9 79.8 80.2 74.9 60.1 53.0
2060 88.2 80.2 80.5 75.2 59.9 53.0
2065 88.6 80.7 81.2 75.8 60.5 53.3
2075 89.1 81.3 81.5 76.3 60.9 53.9
2085 89.5 81.7 81.5 76.5 61.0 53.9
2095 89.8 82.1 81.7 76.7 61.0 54.0

Table 73 Footnotes

Footnote 1

These are eligibility rates for the disability benefit prior to starting the retirement pension, i.e. for the disability pension only, excluding eligibility for the post-retirement disability benefit. Eligibility for the post-retirement disability benefit is shown separately in the table.

Return to footnote 1

Footnote 2

Applies to base CPP only.

Return to footnote 2

B.7.3 Adjustments to Proportion of Contributors and Pensionable Earnings for Benefit Computation Purposes

The effect of credit splitting of pensionable earnings between spouses or common-law partners in the event of divorce or separation is accounted for by adjusting the projected proportion of contributors and average pensionable earnings of the respective spouses or common-law partners.

The average pensionable earnings used to determine the initial amounts of the retirement pensions are also adjusted to exclude the earnings of working beneficiaries. Table 74 presents the resulting adjusted proportion of contributors. The average pensionable earnings up to the YMPE and the YAMPE for benefit computation purposes appear in Table 75 and Table 76, respectively.

Table 74 Proportion of Contributors to CPP (adjusted for benefit computation purposes) (percentages)Table 74 footnote 1
Age Group Males Females
2019 2025 2050 2019 2025 2050
20-24 77.4 81.9 85.0 77.7 81.0 85.5
25-29 88.0 89.2 92.4 84.3 85.4 90.5
30-34 90.6 92.0 93.9 83.9 86.1 89.9
35-39 90.3 92.7 93.6 83.3 86.5 89.7
40-44 89.0 89.9 91.5 83.4 84.5 87.3
45-49 88.2 90.8 92.0 83.7 84.9 87.6
50-54 84.5 86.4 88.2 80.3 81.7 85.0
55-59 76.5 80.0 82.9 70.1 73.1 77.7
60-64 60.1 62.6 66.8 50.9 52.9 57.7
65-69 24.6 29.1 31.6 17.4 19.5 23.1
All Ages 75.0 76.7 78.9 69.9 71.1 75.0

Table 74 Footnotes

Footnote 1

The proportion of contributors shown excludes working beneficiaries.

Return to footnote 1

Table 75 Average Pensionable Earnings up to YMPE (adjusted for benefit computation purposes)Table 75 footnote 1 (dollars)
Age Group Males Females
2019 2025 2050 2019 2025 2050
20-24 26,034 30,038 59,730 21,662 25,114 51,136
25-29 37,289 43,181 88,258 33,370 38,919 81,370
30-34 41,515 48,260 99,310 36,453 42,728 89,760
35-39 43,344 50,552 104,156 38,504 45,264 94,917
40-44 44,457 51,633 106,447 40,132 46,914 98,308
45-49 44,852 52,159 107,411 40,821 47,790 100,084
50-54 44,696 51,966 106,737 40,629 47,522 99,410
55-59 42,945 49,790 101,652 38,693 45,323 94,373
60-64 41,379 47,853 96,441 36,855 43,147 88,731
65-69 37,977 44,362 88,423 32,722 38,004 77,990
All Ages 39,910 46,668 95,163 35,604 41,857 87,046
YMPE 57,400 67,100 140,500 57,400 67,100 140,500

Table 75 Footnotes

Footnote 1

Average pensionable earnings shown exclude the earnings of working beneficiaries.

Return to footnote 1

Table 76 Average Pensionable Earnings up to YAMPE (adjusted for benefit computation purposes)Table 76 footnote 1 (dollars)
Age Group Males Females
2019Table 76 footnote 2 2025 2050 2019Table 76 footnote 2 2025 2050
20-24 30,756 61,091 25,436 51,809
25-29 45,575 92,994 40,600 85,087
30-34 51,832 106,499 45,260 95,392
35-39 54,727 112,614 48,307 101,599
40-44 56,128 115,582 50,248 105,578
45-49 56,744 116,681 51,170 107,444
50-54 56,468 115,821 50,781 106,534
55-59 53,906 109,891 48,253 100,781
60-64 51,817 104,293 45,944 94,799
65-69 48,344 96,341 40,800 84,092
All Ages 50,233 102,334 44,409 92,623
YAMPE 76,400 160,100 76,400 160,100

Table 76 Footnotes

Footnote 1

Average pensionable earnings shown exclude the earnings of working beneficiaries.

Return to footnote 1

Footnote 2

Average pensionable earnings up to the YAMPE are not shown for the year 2019, since the YAMPE is only applicable starting in 2024.

Return to footnote 2

B.7.4 Average Earnings-Related Benefits

Base CPP

To determine base CPP benefits, the valuation model first calculates an average earnings-related benefit for all individuals born in a given calendar year, for each sex, and all relevant ages. This average earnings-related benefit is dependent on four main components:

  • Average pensionable earnings, adjusted for benefit computation purposes, relative to the YMPE;

  • Average proportion of contributors adjusted for benefit computation purposes;

  • 25% of the MPEA for the attained year; and

  • the number of years in the elapsed contributory period at the attained age.

The base CPP average earnings-related benefit is then further adjusted to take into account certain provisions of the CPP statute as applicable:

  • Disability exclusion: the period during which an individual received a CPP disability pension is excluded from the contributory period;

  • Child-rearing provision (exclusion): the period during which an individual was caring for a child younger than age 7 is excluded from the contributory period if earnings during the child-rearing period were sufficiently low;

  • Post-65 drop-out: earnings of contributors over age 65, who are not yet retirement beneficiaries, may replace earnings before age 65 if those earnings are lower;

  • General drop-out provision (exclusion): 17% of the lowest earnings months up to a maximum of about 8 years may be dropped from the contributory period.

Table 77 shows the resulting projected average earnings-related benefit for the base CPP as a percentage of the maximum base CPP benefit at ages 60 and 65 by sex and year of birth for various cohorts of contributors. The average base CPP earnings-related benefit for males at age 65 as a percentage of the maximum is about 10 to 15 percentage points lower than at age 60 due to the fact that males who take their benefit at age 65 have a longer contributory period (producing lower career average earnings) and an historical lower earnings profile than those who take an early benefit at age 60. For females, the difference between age 60 and 65 is less pronounced for older cohorts of contributors but increases for younger cohorts.

The earnings-related benefits for males as a percentage of the maximum are expected to generally decrease over time because of the lower participation and pensionable earnings (as a proportion of the YMPE) of younger contributors in the early years of their contributory period. For females, this decline is offset by the expected higher earnings of future female cohorts. As a result, the gap between the male and female average base CPP earnings-related benefits is expected to decrease over time.

Table 77 Average Earnings-Related Benefit as Percentage of Maximum Benefit - Base CPP
Year of Birth Average Earnings-Related Benefit (%)
Males Females
Age 60 Age 65 Age 60 Age 65
1950 79 65 59 52
1951 79 65 59 52
1952 80 65 62 52
1953 79 64 62 52
1954 79 65 62 53
1955 79 64 63 53
1960 75 65 61 54
1965 72 62 60 53
1970 71 61 61 54
1980 73 62 63 55
1990 73 62 65 56
2000 73 62 66 57
2010 73 62 67 58
2020 73 62 67 58
Additional CPP

For the additional CPP, the valuation model also calculates an average earnings-related benefit based on contributors’ highest earnings over forty years for all persons of a birth cohort for each calendar year, sex, and all relevant ages. This average earnings-related additional benefit is dependent on four main components:

  • average additional pensionable earnings adjusted for benefits purposes relative to the YMPE;

  • average proportion of contributors adjusted for benefit computation purposes;

  • 8.33% of the MPEA plus 33.33% of 14% of the MPEA for the attained year; and

  • the fixed contributory period of 40 years.

The additional CPP average earnings-related benefit is further adjusted to take into account certain provisions of the CPP statute as applicable:

  • Disability drop-in: individuals who become disabled in 2019 or later will have imputed income assigned to those disability periods; and

  • Child-rearing provision (drop-in): an imputed income may be assigned to periods of caring for children younger than age 7 on or after 1 January 2019.

The average additional earnings-related benefit is used in the calculation of the total emerging additional earnings related benefit expenditures for a given calendar year, for each sex, and all relevant ages.

Table 78 shows the resulting projected average additional earnings-related benefits as a percentage of the maximum additional benefit at ages 60 and 65 by sex and year of birth for various cohorts of contributors. The maximum additional benefit is the maximum benefit for both parts of the additional CPP, that is, below the YMPE, and from the YMPE up to YAMPE combined together.

The average additional earnings-related benefit for males at age 65 as a percentage of the maximum is about 3 to 5 percentage points higher than at age 60 due to the longer contributory periods, which is beneficial in the context of the additional CPP fixed forty years contributory period. For females, the difference between age 60 and 65 is less pronounced.

The additional earnings-related benefits as a percentage of the maximum are expected to increase over time for both males and females, since contributory periods are projected to increase relative to the fixed forty years. For later birth cohorts, it is projected that the gap between male and female average earnings-related benefits will stay about the same over time.

Table 78 Average Additional Earnings-Related Benefit as Percentage of Maximum Additional Benefit - Additional CPP
Year of Birth Average Earnings-Related Benefit (%)
Males Females
Age 60 Age 65 Age 60 Age 65
1965 5 9 4 7
1970 10 15 8 12
1980 25 28 21 24
1985 31 35 26 29
1990 37 41 31 34
2000 45 48 39 41
2010 45 48 39 42
2020 45 48 40 42

B.7.5 Retirement Pension Expenditures

Retirement expenditures result from retirement pensions paid under the base and additional CPP. The retirement pensions paid under both components of the CPP are earnings-related. The total retirement pension payable is the sum of the base and additional pension amounts.

Retirement Pension

New retirement expenditures are determined for each age 60 and older, sex, and calendar year of emergence starting from 1967. Total new retirement benefits are calculated as the product of:

  • the population;

  • the retirement pension eligibility rate;

  • the retirement pension take-up rate;

  • the actuarial adjustment factor for early or late pension take-up; and

  • the average earnings-related benefit previously described.

Retirement Benefit Take-up Rates

The retirement benefit take-up rates (or more simply retirement take-up rates) by age, sex, and calendar year are determined by taking into account the assumed future work patterns of earners aged 60 and over and the corresponding CPP experience from 1967 to 2018. The assumed rates correspond to the ratio of the number of emerging retirement beneficiaries to the product of the population and the retirement benefit eligibility rate (i.e. the ratio of the number of new retirement beneficiaries to the eligible population).

The unreduced pension age under the Canada Pension Plan is 65. Since 1987, a person can choose to receive a reduced retirement pension as early as age 60. This provision has had the effect of lowering the average age at pension take-up. In 1986, the average age at pension take-up was 65.2, compared to about 62.5 over the decade ending in 2018.

Chart 13 presents the evolution of the retirement take-up rates at age 60 for males and females respectively. In 2012, there was a significant increase observed in the retirement take-up rates at age 60 for the cohort reaching age 60 that year. The retirement take-up rates at age 60 in 2012 were 41% and 43% for males and females, respectively, compared to the corresponding rates of 32% and 35% in 2011. The observed increase in the retirement take-up rates at age 60 in 2012 may have resulted from two provisions of the Economic Recovery Act (stimulus) of 2009:

  1. The work cessation test to receive the pension early (prior to age 65) was removed in 2012, so that starting that year, individuals no longer needed to lower their earnings to take an early CPP retirement pension.

  2. Greater reductions in early retirement pensions were scheduled to be phased in over a five-year period, starting in 2012.

After 2012, the age 60 retirement take-up rates gradually decreased to below their pre-2012 levels as the higher actuarial adjustments were phased in, the effect of the removal of the work cessation test diminished and individuals stayed longer in the workforce. For cohorts reaching age 60 in 2018, the retirement take-up rates are 27.9% and 30.6% for males and females, respectively, which are the lowest rates since 1992. Take-up rates at age 60 are assumed to further decrease over the next three years such that for cohorts reaching age 60 in 2021 and thereafter, the retirement take-up rates are assumed to be 27.0% for males and 29.5% for females.

Chart 13 - Historical and Projected Retirement Pension Take-up Rates at age 60

Chart 13
Description

Line chart showing the historical and projected retirement pension take-up rates at age 60. Y axis represents the retirement pension take-up rate as a percentage of the eligible population. X axis represents the year.

The retirement pension take-up rate at age 60 for females is 31.9% in 1990. The rate increases up to the late 1990s and then fluctuates after until reaching its highest point of 43.4% in 2012. After 2012, the take-up rate at age 60 for females decreases to 30.6% in 2018, and then is projected to further decrease to a value of 29.5% in 2021 and remain at that value thereafter.

The retirement pension take-up rate at age 60 for males is 24.3% in 1990. The rate increases up to the late 1990s and then fluctuates after until reaching its highest point of 41.4% in 2012. After 2012, the take-up rate at age 60 for males decreases to 27.9% in 2018, and then is projected to further decrease to a value of 27% in 2021 and remain at that value thereafter.

The retirement take-up rates for ages 61 to 64 and 66 to 69 for the year 2019 and thereafter are determined using the observed averages over the last three years ending in 2018. To reflect the waiving of the requirement for an application for the retirement pension upon reaching age 70, as provided under Bill C-97 – Budget Implementation Act, 2019, No. 1Footnote 17, the retirement take-up rate for age 70 is set to equal the average of the last three years of the total retirement take-up rates of ages 70 and over.

The retirement take-up rates at age 65 are derived such that the sum of the retirement rates for each cohort is 100%. The resulting rates at age 65 are determined to be 46.4% in 2026 and thereafter, for both sexes. Table 79 shows the projected retirement take-up rates by age for both males and females.

The assumed retirement take-up rates result in a projected average age at retirement pension take-up of 63.4 years. This compares to an average retirement take-up age of 62.4 years in 2012.

Table 79 Retirement Pension Take-up Rates (2021+) (percentages)
Age Cohort aged 60 in 2021+
Males Females
60 27.0 29.5
61 4.8 5.0
62 4.0 4.2
63 3.6 3.5
64 7.0 6.7
65 46.4 46.4
66 1.8 1.3
67 1.3 0.9
68 0.9 0.6
69 1.2 0.7
70 2.0 1.2
Total 100.0 100.0
Projected New Retirement Pensions

Table 80 shows the projected number of new retirement beneficiaries and their projected average base and additional monthly retirement pensions by sex. New additional average retirement pensions are quite low in the early years due to the lower benefit accrual rates during the phase-in period and the few years of additional contributions. These averages are projected to grow rapidly as the number of years of contributions to the additional CPP increases.

Table 80 New Retirement Beneficiaries and Pensions
Year Base CPP
Number of New Retirement Beneficiairies Average Monthly Retirement Pension
Males Females Total Males Females Total
($) ($) ($)
2019 171,927 176,473 348,400 685 552 617
2020 196,774 209,673 406,447 647 500 571
2021 186,475 189,640 376,115 706 576 640
2022 191,680 195,064 386,745 721 591 655
2023 199,503 203,018 402,521 735 606 670
2024 201,344 205,604 406,948 764 632 697
2025 202,770 207,260 410,030 780 649 714
2030 193,331 199,477 392,808 881 753 816
2035 181,811 191,715 373,526 1,015 878 945
2040 184,507 197,431 381,937 1,181 1,030 1,103
2045 204,566 215,582 420,148 1,368 1,202 1,283
2050 229,679 235,201 464,881 1,591 1,414 1,501
2055 249,669 250,634 500,303 1,849 1,661 1,755
2060 254,814 255,530 510,344 2,154 1,946 2,050
2065 241,553 249,530 491,082 2,517 2,284 2,399
2075 246,442 258,334 504,776 3,356 3,081 3,215
2085 269,008 278,334 547,342 4,500 4,149 4,321
2095 286,277 297,839 584,116 6,068 5,603 5,831
Year Additional CPP
Number of New Retirement Beneficiairies Average Monthly Retirement Pension
Males Females Total Males Females Total
($) ($) ($)
2019 95,400 86,973 182,373 0 0 0
2020 119,942 108,055 227,997 2 1 2
2021 130,312 118,654 248,965 3 3 3
2022 139,245 127,688 266,934 6 5 6
2023 149,684 138,075 287,759 9 8 9
2024 156,366 145,526 301,892 15 13 14
2025 160,972 150,744 311,715 21 18 20
2030 169,216 166,161 335,377 66 54 60
2035 181,338 191,382 372,721 130 107 118
2040 184,507 197,431 381,937 212 176 193
2045 204,566 215,582 420,148 318 264 290
2050 229,679 235,201 464,881 451 375 412
2055 249,669 250,634 500,303 615 512 563
2060 254,814 255,530 510,344 799 668 734
2065 241,553 249,530 491,082 955 803 878
2075 246,442 258,334 504,776 1,270 1,088 1,177
2085 269,008 278,334 547,342 1,700 1,469 1,583
2095 286,277 297,839 584,116 2,299 1,990 2,142
Retirement Beneficiaries Mortality

Projections of retirement pensions in pay require applying survival probabilities to current and new retirement beneficiaries. The mortality rates of CPP retirement beneficiaries used in the projections vary by age, sex, calendar year, and level of emerging pension. The mortality rates were developed based on CPP retirement beneficiaries’ mortality experience for the year 2015 and the mortality improvement assumptions for the general population in this report. The resulting projected mortality rates and life expectancies of retirement beneficiaries are shown in Table 81, Table 82, and Table 83.

Table 81 Mortality Rates of Retirement BeneficiariesFootnote 1 (annual deaths per 1,000)
Age Males Females
2019 2025 2050 2075 2019 2025 2050 2075
60 5.5 4.8 3.8 3.1 2.8 2.6 2.1 1.7
65 11.0 9.7 7.7 6.3 6.6 6.0 4.8 3.9
70 16.4 14.6 11.6 9.5 11.3 10.4 8.4 6.9
75 27.0 24.1 19.2 15.7 18.4 17.0 13.8 11.3
80 45.4 40.5 32.3 26.4 32.0 29.4 23.7 19.4
85 82.1 73.4 58.4 47.8 58.3 53.0 42.5 34.8
90 146.3 132.6 110.4 94.5 107.0 97.8 81.7 69.9

Table 81 Footnotes

Footnote 1

The projected mortality rates of retirement beneficiaries vary by level of emerging pension.

Return to footnote 1

Table 82 Life Expectancies of Retirement Beneficiaries, with improvements after the year shownFootnote 1,Footnote 2
Age Males Females
2019 2025 2050 2075 2019 2025 2050 2075
60 25.7 26.2 27.7 29.2 28.5 28.9 30.3 31.6
65 21.2 21.6 23.1 24.5 23.7 24.1 25.5 26.7
70 17.0 17.5 18.8 20.0 19.3 19.7 20.9 22.1
75 13.2 13.6 14.7 15.9 15.2 15.5 16.7 17.7
80 9.7 10.1 11.1 12.0 11.4 11.7 12.7 13.6
85 6.8 7.1 7.9 8.6 8.1 8.4 9.2 9.9
90 4.5 4.8 5.3 5.7 5.5 5.7 6.2 6.7

Table 82 Footnotes

Footnote 1

These are cohort life expectancies that take into account assumed future improvements in mortality of the general population and therefore differ from calendar year life expectancies, which are based on the mortality rates of the given attained year.

Return to footnote 1

Footnote 2

The projected life expectancies of retirement beneficiaries result from their projected mortality rates, which vary by level of emerging pension as shown in Table 83.

Return to footnote 2

Table 83 Life Expectancies of Retirement Beneficiaries by Level of Base CPP Pension (2019), with future improvementsFootnote 1
Age CPP Level of Pension as % of Maximum
Males Females
< 37.5% 37.5-75% 75-95% 95-100% < 37.5% 37.5-75% 75-95% 95-100%
60 24.3 24.8 25.9 26.7 27.8 28.5 29.3 29.5
65 20.3 20.5 21.2 22.0 23.2 23.7 24.5 24.6
70 16.4 16.4 17.0 17.6 18.9 19.3 19.9 20.0
75 12.7 12.7 13.2 13.5 14.9 15.2 15.7 15.7
80 9.4 9.4 9.7 9.9 11.2 11.4 11.8 11.8
85 6.5 6.5 6.8 6.8 8.0 8.1 8.4 8.4
90 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.5 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.6

Table 83 Footnotes

Footnote 1

These are cohort life expectancies that take into account assumed future improvements in mortality of the general population and therefore differ from calendar year life expectancies, which are based on the mortality rates of the given attained year.

Return to footnote 1

B.7.6 Post-Retirement Benefit Expenditures

Post-retirement benefits are paid to retirement beneficiaries who continue to work and contribute to the Plan. Post-retirement benefits are payable under both the base and additional CPP.

Working retirement beneficiaries younger than 65 are required along with their employers to contribute, whereas contributions are voluntary once reaching age 65 (up to age 69). Employers of those working beneficiaries opting to contribute are required to also contribute. The post-retirement contributions paid in a year are applied toward providing post-retirement benefits in the following years. Post-retirement benefits are described in more details in Appendix A – Summary of Plan Provisions.

Table 84 presents the assumed share of CPP retirement beneficiaries who work and contribute to the CPP in the year of and years following pension take-up, by age and sex.

The assumption corresponding to the year of retirement pension take-up is kept constant after 2025, to reflect the phase-in of the additional CPP. In the year of retirement, contributions are first applied toward maximizing the base and additional retirement pensions, with remaining contributions then applied toward a post-retirement benefit. The contributions to the additional Plan increase over the phase-in period both due to the increase in the contribution rate and the introduction of the YAMPE over two years. This affects the proportion of working beneficiaries who contribute in the year of pension take-up. This proportion is assumed to remain constant once the phase-in is complete in 2025.

The assumption for the proportion of CPP retirement beneficiaries who are contributors after the year of retirement pension take-up is kept constant for the entire projection period.

The figures in the table reflect that not all working beneficiaries contribute to the CPP, due to the following:

  • having earnings less than the YBE, and

  • opting out of contributing between the ages 65 and 69.

Table 84 Proportion of CPP Retirement Beneficiaries who are Contributors (percentages)
Age Year of Retirement Pension Take-Up(2025+) After Year of Retirement Pension Take-Up
Males Females Males Females
60 45 30 0 0
61 55 40 70 58
62 50 40 48 40
63 55 40 47 35
64 75 55 42 30
65 24 19 40 30
66 47 47 27 20
67 47 43 20 15
68 43 38 15 10
69 36 28 9 6

In order to project the contributions that will result from working beneficiaries, assumptions are required with respect to their average contributory earnings (i.e., average earnings between the YBE and YAMPE on which contributions are made). For both males and females, the average contributory earnings of working beneficiaries for years after the year of retirement pension take-up are assumed to be between 20% and 35% lower than the contributory earnings of contributors who are not beneficiaries, depending on the age and sex. The resulting average annual contributory earnings of working beneficiaries up to the YMPE and YAMPE are presented respectively in Table 85 and Table 86.

Table 85 Average Contributory Earnings of Working Beneficiaries up to the YMPE (dollars)
Year Below Age 65 Age 65 and Above
Males Females Males Females
2019 32,480 25,627 31,419 24,587
2020 33,295 26,350 32,184 25,268
2021 34,233 27,214 33,040 26,010
2022 35,190 28,154 33,934 26,711
2023 36,157 29,156 34,856 27,449
2024 37,257 30,250 35,876 28,297
2025 38,394 31,364 36,940 29,217
2030 44,050 36,605 42,545 34,331
2035 49,646 41,449 48,294 39,286
2040 57,227 48,112 55,680 45,686
2045 66,932 56,826 65,112 53,936
2050 78,892 67,720 76,566 64,043
2055 92,491 79,992 89,489 75,461
2060 107,833 93,792 104,196 88,364
2065 124,212 108,303 120,147 102,262
2075 165,288 144,159 160,253 136,834
2085 223,206 194,732 216,039 184,837
2095 302,284 263,853 292,180 250,243
Table 86 Average Contributory Earnings of Working Beneficiaries up to the YAMPE (dollars)
YearFootnote 1 Below Age 65 Age 65 and Above
Males Females Males Females
2024 38,481 30,618 37,242 28,944
2025 40,785 32,133 39,753 30,470
2030 46,702 37,481 45,715 35,856
2035 52,374 42,155 51,736 40,927
2040 60,260 48,872 59,583 47,597
2045 70,536 57,889 69,692 56,359
2050 83,346 69,342 82,062 67,165
2055 97,880 82,196 96,006 79,337
2060 114,184 96,557 111,810 93,013
2065 131,357 111,383 128,820 107,573
2075 174,380 147,850 171,575 143,773
2085 235,516 199,845 231,254 194,267
2095 319,287 271,243 312,914 263,192

Table 86 Footnotes

Footnote *

The years shown start in 2024 since it is the first year the YAMPE applies.

Return to footnote 1

Around 450,000 working beneficiaries started to contribute in 2012, generating about an extra $1.0 billion in contributions that year. The number of working beneficiaries who contribute grew to about 562,000 in 2016 with corresponding contributions representing about $1.5 billion.

The corresponding post retirement benefits started to be payable the year after contributions were made. In 2013, post-retirement benefits totaled about $63 million for contributions made in 2012. In 2017, post-retirement benefits amounted to $410 million based on contributions made in 2016 and before.

Table 87 shows the projected number of working beneficiaries with their contributions and resulting post-retirement benefits by year. Contributions and benefits are split between the base and additional CPP. Total contributions from working beneficiaries are projected to be about $1.7 billion in 2019 and $6.8 billion in 2050. Total post-retirement benefits payable are projected to be about $637 million in 2019 and $8.4 billion in 2050.

The projected number of working beneficiaries who contribute, their earnings, and contributions are reflected in all other tables in this report that present contributors, earnings, and contributions projections, unless otherwise indicated. Similarly, the post-retirement benefits are presented in combination with retirement benefits as total retirement expenditures in all other tables in this report where expenditures are shown by type of benefit, unless otherwise indicated.

Table 87 Working Beneficiaries – Contributors, Contributions, and Post-Retirement Benefits
Year Number of Contributing Working Beneficiaries Base CPP Additional CPP
Contributions Post-Retirement Benefits Contributions Post-Retirement Benefits
(thousands) ($ million) ($ million) ($ million) ($ million)
2019 588 1,613 637 49 0
2020 603 1,695 760 103 6
2021 618 1,788 891 181 18
2022 633 1,884 1,032 286 39
2023 649 1,987 1,184 401 72
2024 665 2,101 1,331 476 123
2025 678 2,212 1,486 553 174
2030 661 2,497 2,342 623 499
2035 626 2,688 3,224 661 883
2040 641 3,181 4,091 779 1,294
2045 707 4,116 4,995 1,011 1,757
2050 793 5,451 6,087 1,351 2,312
2055 857 6,915 7,513 1,724 2,979
2060 892 8,402 9,364 2,100 3,782
2065 864 9,401 11,601 2,344 4,719
2075 876 12,694 16,768 3,143 6,843
2085 945 18,473 23,683 4,575 9,666
2095 1,019 26,944 34,046 6,692 13,907

B.7.7 Disability Benefit Expenditures

Disability expenditures result from disability benefits paid under the base and additional CPP.

Under the base CPP, disability benefits consist of the disability pension and the post-retirement disability benefit. The base CPP disability pension consists of both a flat-rate and earnings-related benefit. The post-retirement disability benefit is equal to the flat-rate benefit.

Under the additional CPP, disability benefits consist only of the additional disability pension which is an earnings-related benefit. Eligibility for the additional disability pension follows from eligibility for the base disability pension. There is no post-retirement disability benefit payable under the additional CPP.

Disability Pension

New disability pension expenditures are determined by age and sex for each year starting in 1970 as the product of:

  • the population;

  • the disability eligibility rate;

  • the disability incidence rate; and

  • the annual amount of the benefit.

The value of the emerging earnings-related benefits by age and sex is equal to the sum of 75% of the average retirement earnings-related benefits for the base and additional Plans.

Disability Incidence Rates

Chart 14 shows the historical disability incidence rates for the CPP disability pension, and Table 88 provides the assumed ultimate disability incidence rates for the disability pension (base and additional CPP) and the assumed disability incidence rates for the post-retirement disability benefit (base CPP).

Chart 14 - Historical Disability Incidence Rates (per 1,000 eligible)

Chart 14
Description

Line chart showing the historical disability incidence rates (the number of new CPP disability beneficiaries per 1,000 eligible contributors). Y axis represents the rate per 1,000 eligible. X axis represents the year. The disability incidence rate for males is 2.5 new beneficiaries per 1,000 eligible contributors in 1970. The rate for males has periods of growth and decline but increases overall to reach a highest point of 6.1 in 1992, then decreases to 2.6 in the late 1990s, and is relatively stable after with a value of 2.95 in 2018.

The disability incidence rate for females is 1.2 new beneficiaries per 1,000 eligible contributors in 1970. The rate for females has periods of growth and decline but increases overall to reach a highest point of 5.2 in 1992, then decreases to 2.9 in the late 1990s, and is relatively stable after with a value of 3.65 in 2018.

It can be seen from Chart 14 that the incidence of new CPP disability cases (i.e. the number of new cases as a proportion of the eligible population) generally increased from 1970 to the early 1990s. The annual rate of change in incidence rates was particularly acute between 1989 and the recession of the early 1990s. After reaching a peak in 1992, disability incidence rates then declined rapidly during the 1990s and have remained relatively stable since the early 2000s up to recently.

The decline after 1992 reflects the economic recovery that occurred following the 1990-91 recession. As well, beginning in 1994, the CPP administration initiated a range of measures designed to effectively manage the growing pressure on the disability program.

The above trends and the facts that the overall female incidence rate has been higher than the overall male incidence rate since 1996, with the female-male differential generally increasing over the period 2009 to 2015, were taken into account when setting the ultimate assumption for the aggregate disability incidence rates. The estimated rates for years 2016 to 2018, based on available data from Service Canada, were also taken into account.

Based on the above, the aggregate (all ages combined using the 2018 population for weights) incidence rates for the disability pension for 2019 and thereafter are projected to remain constant at the values in 2018 of 2.95 and 3.65 per thousand eligible males and females, respectively. These projected aggregate rates are then distributed by age in accordance with the 2018 eligible population for each sex.

Post-retirement Disability Benefit Incidence Rates

Since no CPP data were yet available as at the time of this report to develop the assumption for the incidence of disability among CPP early retirees, data from the Québec Pension Plan (QPP), which has a similar provision, have been used. Once CPP data become available, it will be used to develop this assumption for future CPP actuarial reports.

Under the QPP, there is a provision for an “additional amount for disability” payable to retirement beneficiaries younger than 65. Effective 2013, QPP retirement beneficiaries younger than 65 who are deemed disabled after the first six months of their retirement pension start date may be eligible to receive the additional amount for disability, which is added to their retirement pension. The additional amount equals the flat-rate portion of the QPP disability benefit. The additional amount ceases to be paid once an individual turns 65.

Given that the eligibility requirements for a disability benefit are similar under the CPP and QPP, and that the QPP additional amount for disability is similar to the CPP post-retirement disability benefit, the assumption for the disability incidence rates in respect of the QPP additional amount for disability were used, as given in Table 36 of the Actuarial Valuation Report on the QPP as at 31 December 2015. These incidence rates are shown in Table 88. The incidence rates are applicable to the population of in-pay retirement beneficiaries aged 61 to 64, that is, excluding new beneficiaries who emerge during the year.

Table 88 Ultimate Disability Incidence Rates (2019+)Footnote 1 (per 1,000 eligible)
Age Disability Pension Post-retirement Disability BenefitFootnote 2
Males Females Males Females
25 0.32 0.30
30 0.64 0.86
35 1.00 1.69
40 1.52 2.44
45 2.15 3.32
50 3.56 5.06
55 6.45 7.40
60 9.16 9.12
61 9.14 9.07 2.90 2.20
62 9.11 9.03 5.60 5.20
63 9.09 8.98 8.30 6.10
64 9.06 8.93 8.50 4.60
All Ages 2.95 3.65 6.23 4.64

Table 88 Footnotes

Footnote *

The disability incidence rates shown are adjusted by the eligible population in 2018.

Return to footnote 1

Footnote **

The assumed incidence rates for the post-retirement disability benefit are set equal to those assumed in the Actuarial Valuation of the Québec Pension Plan as at 31 December 2015, as shown in Table 36 of that report.

Return to footnote 2

Projected New Disability Benefits

Table 89 shows the projected number of new disability beneficiaries for the disability pension and post-retirement disability benefit, and Table 90 shows the projected average new disability benefits for the base disability pension, additional disability pension, and base post-retirement disability benefit by sex and year.

Table 89 New Disability Beneficiaries
Base CPP
Number of Beneficiaries
Year Disability Pension Post-retirement Disability Benefit ALL Disability Benefits
Males Females Total Males Females Total Males Females Total
2019 19,148 21,276 40,424 1,648 1,229 2,877Footnote 1 20,796 22,504 43,301
2020 19,348 21,541 40,888 923 646 1,569 20,271 22,186 42,458
2021 19,511 21,748 41,259 928 647 1,575 20,439 22,395 42,834
2022 19,589 21,854 41,443 946 659 1,605 20,536 22,512 43,048
2023 19,731 22,054 41,785 960 670 1,630 20,691 22,724 43,415
2024 19,856 22,261 42,117 967 675 1,642 20,823 22,936 43,759
2025 19,905 22,376 42,281 978 684 1,662 20,883 23,060 43,943
2030 20,152 23,148 43,300 891 634 1,525 21,043 23,782 44,825
2035 21,242 24,691 45,933 895 652 1,547 22,136 25,343 47,480
2040 22,896 26,377 49,272 918 685 1,604 23,814 27,062 50,876
2045 24,456 27,711 52,167 1,047 770 1,817 25,503 28,481 53,984
2050 25,404 28,558 53,962 1,158 828 1,986 26,563 29,385 55,948
2055 25,638 28,973 54,611 1,268 892 2,160 26,907 29,865 56,772
2060 25,284 29,162 54,446 1,300 913 2,213 26,584 30,075 56,660
2065 25,459 29,760 55,219 1,201 878 2,079 26,660 30,638 57,298
2075 27,303 31,768 59,071 1,268 934 2,202 28,571 32,702 61,273
2085 29,288 33,900 63,188 1,393 1,012 2,406 30,681 34,912 65,594
2095 30,462 35,356 65,818 1,478 1,082 2,560 31,940 36,438 68,378
Additional CPP
Number of Beneficiaries
Year Disability Pension Post-retirement Disability Benefit ALL Disability Benefits
Males Females Total Males Females Total Males Females Total
2019 12,089 11,675 23,764 12,089 11,675 23,764
2020 14,071 13,798 27,869 14,071 13,798 27,869
2021 15,150 15,113 30,262 15,150 15,113 30,262
2022 15,975 16,120 32,094 15,975 16,120 32,094
2023 16,775 17,110 33,885 16,775 17,110 33,885
2024 17,631 18,164 35,795 17,631 18,164 35,795
2025 18,032 18,774 36,806 18,032 18,774 36,806
2030 19,218 21,160 40,378 19,218 21,160 40,378
2035 21,242 24,691 45,933 21,242 24,691 45,933
2040 22,896 26,377 49,272 22,896 26,377 49,272
2045 24,456 27,711 52,167 24,456 27,711 52,167
2050 25,404 28,558 53,962 25,404 28,558 53,962
2055 25,638 28,973 54,611 25,638 28,973 54,611
2060 25,284 29,162 54,446 25,284 29,162 54,446
2065 25,459 29,760 55,219 25,459 29,760 55,219
2075 27,303 31,768 59,071 27,303 31,768 59,071
2085 29,288 33,900 63,188 29,288 33,900 63,188
2095 30,462 35,356 65,818 30,462 35,356 65,818

Table 89 Footnotes

Footnote *

The projected higher number of new base CPP PRDB beneficiaries in 2019 than in 2020 is attributable to retirement beneficiaries who were already disabled prior to 2019 who could apply to receive the PRDB as of 2019.

Return to footnote 1

Table 90 New Disability Pensions and Post Retirement Disability Benefits (dollars)
Year Base CPP Additional CPP Base CPP
Average Monthly Disability Pension Average Monthly Disability Pension Post-retirement
Disability Benefit
Males Females Total Males Females Total
2019 995 932 962 0 0 0 496
2020 1,031 962 995 2 1 1 506
2021 1,049 981 1,014 4 3 3 516
2022 1,069 1,003 1,035 7 6 7 527
2023 1,092 1,027 1,058 12 10 11 537
2024 1,117 1,052 1,082 18 16 17 548
2025 1,143 1,078 1,109 26 22 24 559
2030 1,297 1,228 1,260 77 64 70 617
2035 1,476 1,401 1,436 134 111 122 681
2040 1,680 1,599 1,637 204 167 185 752
2045 1,906 1,822 1,862 287 234 258 831
2050 2,161 2,074 2,115 379 307 341 917
2055 2,448 2,360 2,402 476 384 427 1,013
2060 2,780 2,689 2,732 567 457 508 1,118
2065 3,168 3,065 3,113 651 530 586 1,234
2075 4,102 3,976 4,035 875 719 791 1,505
2085 5,316 5,158 5,232 1,179 974 1,069 1,834
2095 6,910 6,704 6,800 1,581 1,308 1,434 2,236
Disability Benefit Termination Rates

All emerging disability benefits (disability pensions and post-retirement disability benefits) are projected by age and sex for each future year until termination of disability (due to recovery, death, or attainment of age 65). The projected disability termination rates presented in Table 91 apply by age, sex, and duration of disability (i.e. the period of being in receipt of a disability benefit) on an attained calendar year basis. The average graduated experience over the 15-year period 2003 to 2017 is used to produce base year rates for 2016. The base year termination rates are then projected for 2019 and thereafter for males and females, by age of disability onset, and duration of disability using assumed recovery and mortality improvement rates.

Recovery improvement rates are assumed to trend to an ultimate level of 0% by 2023 (i.e. recovery rates are assumed to be constant after 2023), and mortality improvement rates of disability beneficiaries are assumed to trend to an ultimate level of 0.8% by the same year.

Table 91 Disability Termination Rates in 2019 and 2035Footnote 1 (per 1,000 people)
2019
Age Males Females
1st Year 2nd Year 3rd Year 4th Year 5th Year 6+ Year 1st Year 2nd Year 3rd Year 4th Year 5th Year 6+ Year
30 42 51 62 47 42 27 38 51 50 42 37 27
40 42 55 48 36 31 21 33 51 45 30 23 18
50 63 70 52 38 32 24 44 59 44 30 22 16
60 73 75 56 45 42 0 53 59 40 28 28 0
2035
Age Males Females
1st Year 2nd Year 3rd Year 4th Year 5th Year 6+ Year 1st Year 2nd Year 3rd Year 4th Year 5th Year 6+ Year
30 39 49 60 45 40 26 35 48 49 40 36 27
40 38 52 46 34 29 19 30 47 43 29 22 17
50 56 64 48 35 30 21 39 55 41 28 20 15
60 65 67 51 41 37 0 47 53 36 25 25 0

Table 91 Footnotes

Footnote *

Assumed termination rates for all disability benefits (disability pension and post-retirement disability benefit).

Return to footnote 1

B.7.8 Survivor Pension Expenditures

Survivor expenditures result from survivor’s benefits paid under the base and additional CPP. Under both components of the CPP, the survivor’s pension changes form at age 65.

Under the base CPP, the survivor’s pension payable to individuals younger than 65 consists of a flat-rate and earnings-related benefit. At ages 65 and older, the pension payable is earnings-related. The additional survivor’s pension payable takes the same form as the base survivor’s pension, except that the additional survivor’s pension is strictly earnings-related with no flat-rate benefit payable.

New Survivor’s Pension

New survivor pension expenditures are determined by age and sex for each year starting in 1968 as the product of:

  • the number of deaths in the population;

  • the probability of being married or in common-law union at the time of death;

  • the survivor eligibility rate;

  • the husband and wife age distribution;

  • the annual amount of the benefit (flat-rate and average earnings-related benefits); and

  • if applicable, the appropriate factor taking into account the base CPP earnings-related benefit limits that apply to combined survivor-disability and combined survivor-retirement pensions.

For each age and sex, the actual proportions of contributors married or in a common law relationship at the time of death are determined from benefit statistics. The smoothed averages from recent experience over the years 2005 to 2017, with further adjustments for younger and older ages, are used to determine the assumed proportions for future years. On the basis of the trends shown over the period 2005 to 2017, the proportions are extrapolated to 2020 and kept constant thereafter. These proportions account for benefits payable to same-sex couples. Values are shown in Table 92.

Table 92 Proportion of Contributors Married or in Common-Law Relationship at Time of Death (percentages)
Age Males Females
20 2 1
30 16 20
40 44 54
50 54 60
60 58 58
70 65 52
80 68 35
90 52 12

The value of the emerging earnings-related survivor benefit is equal to 37.5% or 60% of the average retirement earnings-related benefit, depending on whether the surviving spouse or common-law partner is under age 65 or aged 65 or older, respectively. It is further adjusted to account for the fact that eligibility rules are more stringent for survivor benefits than for retirement benefits.

The projected number of new survivor beneficiaries by age (below 65, and 65 and older) is shown in Table 93. The projected average monthly survivor pensions of emerging (new) benefits for the base and additional CPP by age and sex are shown in Table 94.

Table 93 New Survivor Beneficiaries
Base CPP
Number of New Survivor Beneficiaries
Year Under 65 65 and Over All Ages
Males Females Total Males Females Total Males Females Total
2019 8,403 41,201 49,604Footnote 1 15,290 43,610 58,899 23,692 84,811 108,503
2020 5,410 16,366 21,776 16,003 44,904 60,907 21,412 61,270 82,683
2021 5,370 16,282 21,652 16,569 46,107 62,675 21,939 62,389 84,328
2022 5,332 16,179 21,511 17,145 47,385 64,530 22,477 63,565 86,042
2023 5,297 16,105 21,402 17,735 48,747 66,482 23,032 64,852 87,884
2024 5,279 16,106 21,385 18,341 50,197 68,538 23,621 66,303 89,923
2025 5,244 16,034 21,278 18,950 51,730 70,680 24,194 67,764 91,958
2030 5,128 15,673 20,801 21,981 60,578 82,559 27,110 76,251 103,360
2035 5,142 15,401 20,543 24,597 70,266 94,863 29,739 85,667 115,407
2040 5,218 15,308 20,525 26,355 78,287 104,641 31,573 93,594 125,167
2045 5,287 15,460 20,748 27,293 83,328 110,621 32,580 98,788 131,368
2050 5,286 15,751 21,037 27,679 85,895 113,574 32,965 101,646 134,611
2055 5,209 15,916 21,125 27,957 86,678 114,635 33,166 102,594 135,760
2060 5,086 15,834 20,921 28,415 87,258 115,673 33,501 103,092 136,594
2065 4,976 15,508 20,485 29,045 89,867 118,912 34,021 105,376 139,397
2075 4,873 14,805 19,678 30,192 99,900 130,092 35,065 114,705 149,770
2085 4,799 14,506 19,304 30,379 105,844 136,222 35,177 120,349 155,527
2095 4,655 14,269 18,924 30,294 104,995 135,289 34,949 119,264 154,213
Additional CPP
Number of New Survivor Beneficiaries
Year Under 65 65 and Over All Ages
Males Females Total Males Females Total Males Females Total
2019 2,871 8,061 10,932 2,065 1,697 3,761 4,936 9,758 14,694
2020 3,384 9,759 13,143 2,958 2,785 5,743 6,342 12,544 18,887
2021 3,644 10,496 14,140 3,584 3,665 7,249 7,228 14,161 21,389
2022 3,832 11,032 14,865 4,200 4,647 8,847 8,032 15,679 23,712
2023 3,994 11,494 15,488 4,843 5,758 10,600 8,837 17,252 26,089
2024 4,171 12,012 16,183 5,532 7,021 12,553 9,704 19,033 28,736
2025 4,259 12,283 16,541 6,250 8,424 14,675 10,509 20,707 31,216
2030 4,571 13,209 17,780 10,414 17,976 28,390 14,985 31,185 46,170
2035 5,095 14,567 19,662 15,712 32,480 48,192 20,808 47,047 67,854
2040 5,204 14,960 20,164 20,137 49,158 69,294 25,341 64,118 89,459
2045 5,285 15,331 20,616 23,423 64,805 88,228 28,708 80,136 108,844
2050 5,286 15,712 20,998 25,661 75,416 101,077 30,947 91,129 122,076
2055 5,209 15,908 21,118 27,029 81,682 108,711 32,238 97,591 129,828
2060 5,086 15,834 20,920 28,081 85,606 113,687 33,168 101,439 134,607
2065 4,976 15,508 20,485 28,961 89,534 118,495 33,937 105,042 138,979
2075 4,873 14,805 19,678 30,191 99,900 130,091 35,065 114,705 149,769
2085 4,799 14,506 19,304 30,379 105,844 136,222 35,177 120,349 155,527
2095 4,655 14,269 18,924 30,294 104,995 135,289 34,949 119,264 154,213

Table 93 Footnotes

Footnote 1

The projected number of new base CPP survivors for the year 2019 is higher than for other years as a result of the introduction of Bill C-74, which enables survivors younger than 35 years old who were previously ineligible for a survivor's pension to become eligible starting 1 January 2019.

Return to footnote 1

Table 94 New Survivor Pensions (dollars)
Base CPP
Average New Monthly Survivor's Pension
Year Under 65 65 and Over
Males Females Total Males Females Total
2019 417 390 395 152 354 302
2020 388 465 446 154 354 302
2021 396 473 454 157 355 302
2022 406 482 463 161 357 305
2023 416 492 473 167 361 309
2024 426 502 483 174 366 314
2025 437 513 494 182 372 321
2030 497 573 554 229 413 364
2035 568 646 626 285 469 421
2040 649 733 712