Chief Actuary of the Government of Canada releases 19th Actuarial Report on the Old Age Security Program

Today, the Office of the Chief Actuary (OCA) released the 19th Actuarial Report on the Old Age Security (OAS) Program as at 31 December 2024 after it was tabled in the House of Commons.

The 19th report projects continued growth in the number of OAS beneficiaries, reflecting Canada's aging population and increasing longevity. The number of OAS pension beneficiaries is expected to rise from 7.9 million in 2026 to 12.4 million by 2060. Over the same period, total program expenditures are projected to increase from $92.6 billion to $277.7 billion.

Relative to the size of the Canadian economy, OAS program costs are projected to remain relatively stable over the long term, increasing from 2.76% of GDP in 2026 to about 2.90% in the early 2030s before gradually declining to 2.63% by 2060.

As the baby boom generation continues to age, the population aged 65 and over is expected to grow significantly, underscoring the important role that the OAS program will continue to play in supporting older Canadians.

This report provides Parliamentarians and policymakers with a clear, long-term view of how the OAS program is expected to evolve. It outlines updated projections of beneficiaries, expenditures and

costs relative to the Canadian economy, together with sensitivity tests and scenario analyses that help illustrate the potential impact of future demographic and economic developments.

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"The retirement of the baby boom generation and increasing longevity are expected to drive continued growth in OAS expenditures. Our  report shows that the cost of the program relative to the economy is projected to peak in the next decade before gradually decreasing and stabilizing over the longer term."